Model the 2026 income-related ESA abolition and its UC claims

changelog.d/2562.fixed.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Model income-related ESA payments up to the 2026 abolition dates and Universal Credit claims when a family's award starts to end. The model pays unsaved claims to 30 June 2026 in Great Britain and 30 September 2026 in Northern Ireland, using 86/365 and 178/365 of the 2026-27 year, and from 2027-28 moves each affected family off its legacy benefits. Users can preserve an award with the new appointee-saving input. A family in specified or temporary accommodation now keeps its Housing Benefit when DWP moves it off its legacy benefits, unless it claims Universal Credit.

docs/engineering/esa-jsa-report-screening.md

@@ -14,6 +14,25 @@ screen passes. The couple's part stays £2,792. A working outside reporter canno
 raise the total; failure of the couple's own screen cannot erase another eligible
 person's separate award. These examples presume separate preassessed claims.
 
+The Secretary of State appointed 1 July 2026 for the abolition of income-related
+ESA to reach every remaining award in Great Britain, and the Department for
+Communities appointed 1 October 2026 in Northern Ireland (SI 2025/1148 art. 3A;
+SR 2025/176 art. 3A).
+An award already due to end at the end of a two-week run-on ends on that
+schedule instead: with a migration notice deadline of 22 June 2026 and no claim,
+SI 2014/1230 reg 46(1)(a) ends the award on 5 July. The model has no deadline or
+claim dates, so it pays each claim for `esa_income_payable_share` of the year, to
+the general date: one share for the couple's claim and one for each outside
+claim. In 2026–27 that is 86/365 in Great Britain and 178/365 in Northern
+Ireland, so for a couple that does not claim Universal Credit the £3,876 above
+becomes £913.25 in Great Britain. When the abolition reaches the couple's award,
+the family claims Universal Credit if `would_claim_uc_at_legacy_closure`, and
+the claim ends the couple's award; outside claims carry on. From 2027–28
+`esa_income_report_closed` closes every report and `legacy_benefits_closed`
+moves the family, except for a claim saved for an appointee
+(`esa_income_appointee_saving`), which a Universal Credit claim still ends.
+Contributory ESA carries on as new style ESA.
+
 All formula readers use the same original claim groups. A scope mask selects
 reports; it does not change claimant or partner roles. Claimant-or-partner awards
 exclude outside claims, including in Income Support and an alternate benefit-cap

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/ESA/income/awards_payable.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+description: >-
+  Whether old style income-related Employment and Support Allowance awards are
+  still payable (1) or abolished (0). The Secretary of State appointed 1 July
+  2026 for the Welfare Reform Act 2012 abolition of income-related ESA to
+  reach every remaining award in Great Britain, and the Department for
+  Communities appointed 1 October 2026 in Northern Ireland. Two kinds of award escape that date: one
+  saved for an appointee (esa_income_appointee_saving), and one already due to
+  end at the end of a two-week run-on, which ends on that schedule instead. A
+  claimant with a migration notice deadline of 22 June 2026 who makes no
+  claim keeps the award to 5 July. The model has no claim or deadline dates,
+  so it pays every unsaved award to the general date. A contributory
+  allowance in the same award continues as new style ESA. Ordinary
+  parameters take their 30 April value for a model year, which would leave
+  2026-27 untouched, so these numeric flags use fiscal_year_blend to take the
+  day-weighted average from 6 April to 5 April: 2026-27 carries 86 of its 365
+  days in Great Britain and 178 in Northern Ireland.
+great_britain:
+  description: Whether old style income-related Employment and Support Allowance awards are still payable in Great Britain. SI 2025/1148 art. 3A(1) appoints 1 July 2026 for section 33(1)(b) of the Welfare Reform Act 2012 to come into force for every award it has not yet reached, except an award due to end at the end of a two-week run-on, which ends on that schedule.
+  values:
+    2008-10-27: 1
+    2026-07-01: 0
+  metadata:
+    label: Income-related ESA awards payable in Great Britain
+    unit: /1
+    period: year
+    fiscal_year_blend: true
+    reference:
+      - title: SI 2025/1148 art. 3A (inserted by SI 2026/409 art. 2(4))
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/1148/article/3A
+      - title: SI 2026/409, The Welfare Reform Act 2012 (Commencement No. 35) (Abolition of Benefits) (Amendment) Order 2026
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/409/made
+      - title: SI 2013/983 art. 4(1) (the amending provisions)
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/983/article/4
+      - title: SI 2014/1230 reg 46(1)(a) (termination two weeks after a migration notice deadline)
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2014/1230/regulation/46
+      - title: Welfare Reform Act 2012 s. 33(1)(b)
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2012/5/section/33
+northern_ireland:
+  description: Whether old style income-related Employment and Support Allowance awards are still payable in Northern Ireland. SR 2025/176 art. 3A(1) appoints 1 October 2026 for Article 39(1)(b) of the Welfare Reform (Northern Ireland) Order 2015 to come into operation for every award it has not yet reached, except an award due to end at the end of a two-week run-on, which ends on that schedule.
+  values:
+    2008-10-27: 1
+    2026-10-01: 0
+  metadata:
+    label: Income-related ESA awards payable in Northern Ireland
+    unit: /1
+    period: year
+    fiscal_year_blend: true
+    reference:
+      - title: SR 2025/176 art. 3A (inserted by SR 2026/115 art. 2(4))
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisr/2025/176/article/3A
+      - title: SR 2026/115, The Welfare Reform (Northern Ireland) Order 2015 (Commencement No. 18) (Abolition of Benefits) (Amendment) Order (Northern Ireland) 2026
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisr/2026/115/made
+      - title: SR 2017/190 art. 6(1) (the amending provisions)
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisr/2017/190/article/6
+      - title: Welfare Reform (Northern Ireland) Order 2015 art. 39(1)(b)
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisi/2015/2006/article/39
+metadata:
+  label: Income-related ESA awards payable
+  economy: false

policyengine_uk/reforms/policyengine/disable_simulated_benefits.py

@@ -60,21 +60,32 @@
 # The model's move off legacy benefits (legacy_benefits_closed): once a legacy
 # benefit a family reports has closed, DWP's migration notice ends all its
 # legacy awards, whether or not the family then claims Universal Credit,
-# unless DWP sent it to Pension Credit instead. The reform pays every listed
-# benefit, the legacy ones and Universal Credit alike, at its dataset-year
-# report in every year, so it moves no family: it holds these false for its
-# years. The closure then ends none of the family's legacy benefits (their
-# eligibility and the "on" statuses read from it, and Housing Benefit and tax
-# credit eligibility), prompts no Universal Credit claim
-# (claims_uc_at_legacy_closure) and takes no family off the Pension Credit
+# unless DWP sent it to Pension Credit instead. The abolition of
+# income-related ESA reaching a family's award (esa_income_abolition_reached)
+# likewise prompts a Universal Credit claim from 2026-27. The reform pays
+# every listed benefit, the legacy ones and Universal Credit alike, at its
+# dataset-year report in every year, so it moves no family: it holds these
+# false for its years. The closure then ends none of the family's legacy
+# benefits (their eligibility and the "on" statuses read from it, and Housing
+# Benefit and tax credit eligibility), neither prompts a Universal Credit
+# claim (claims_uc_at_legacy_closure) and no family leaves the Pension Credit
 # route. Only the closure is held: the model's other rules still apply, and
 # the reform still pays the amounts reported. A family the model has claim
 # Universal Credit anyway (would_claim_uc) is still not eligible for Housing
 # Benefit or tax credits. An adult outside the couple who reports
 # income-based JSA is on it, as their own claim, only in the years the model
-# has the scheme open (gov.dwp.JSA.income.active: to 2025).
-# Hold the family closure and each separate member's own closure.
-NOT_MOVED = ["legacy_benefits_closed", "person_legacy_benefits_closed"]
+# has the scheme open (gov.dwp.JSA.income.active: to 2025). One who reports
+# income-related ESA is on it in every year, as the reform pays it in every
+# year: the abolition closes their report (esa_income_report_closed), but
+# _legacy_award_payee.own_report_is_paid uses the reform's held award to
+# determine their receipt status, as it does for the claimant and partner.
+# Hold the family closure, each separate member's own closure, and the
+# abolition's claim.
+NOT_MOVED = [
+    "legacy_benefits_closed",
+    "person_legacy_benefits_closed",
+    "esa_income_abolition_reached",
+]
 
 # The first year in which the model pays a carer in Scotland Carer Support
 # Payment in place of Carer's Allowance: carers_allowance_pre_overlap and

policyengine_uk/tests/legacy_award_work_reference.py

@@ -181,10 +181,41 @@ def reports(variable):
     return not all(adult["age"] >= 70 for adult in couple)
 
 
+def esa_abolition_claim(couple, parameters):
+    """Whether the claimant and partner claim Universal Credit when the
+    abolition of income-related ESA reaches their award, which ends their
+    reports (esa_income_report_closed).
+
+    The abolition reaches every remaining award on 1 July 2026 in England
+    (SI 2025/1148 art. 3A), the households' default country, and no member
+    here has the appointee saving, so it reaches any award reported in a
+    year with less than all of it payable. would_claim_uc_at_legacy_closure
+    keeps its default, true. The conditions are those of the other
+    working-age closures: no Pension Credit report, and not all pension age.
+    """
+    payable = parameters.gov.dwp.ESA.income.awards_payable.great_britain
+    reports_award = any(m.get("esa_income_reported", 0) > 0 for m in couple)
+    on_pension_credit = any(m.get("pension_credit_reported", 0) > 0 for m in couple)
+    if not reports_award or payable >= 1 or on_pension_credit:
+        return False
+    assert all(not 65 <= adult["age"] < 70 for adult in couple), couple
+    return not all(adult["age"] >= 70 for adult in couple)
+
+
+def couple_report_closed(couple, reported, parameters):
+    """Whether the claimant's and partner's own reports of an award have
+    closed: their legacy benefits have closed, or, for income-related ESA,
+    they claim Universal Credit when its abolition reaches the award."""
+    closed = legacy_benefits_closed(couple, [], parameters)
+    if reported == "esa_income_reported":
+        closed = closed or esa_abolition_claim(couple, parameters)
+    return closed
+
+
 def candidates(couple, others, reported, parameters):
     """Indexes (into couple + others) of members who could be the claimant."""
     members = couple + others
-    couple_closed = legacy_benefits_closed(couple, [], parameters)
+    couple_closed = couple_report_closed(couple, reported, parameters)
     open_reports = [
         member.get(reported, 0) > 0
         and not (