Model the 2026 income-related ESA abolition and its UC claims by MaxGhenis · Pull Request #2813 · PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

MaxGhenis · 2026-11-02T01:24:06Z

What and why

The Secretary of State appointed 1 July 2026 for the remaining old style income-related ESA awards in Great Britain to end under Welfare Reform Act 2012 s.33(1)(b) (SI 2025/1148 art. 3A, inserted by SI 2026/409). The Department for Communities appointed 1 October 2026 in Northern Ireland (SR 2025/176 art. 3A, inserted by SR 2026/115). Under each article, an appointee saving keeps an award in payment, and an award already due to end after a two-week run-on ends on that schedule. DWP had sent migration notices to 879,000 households on income-related ESA by December 2025, and most of them had claimed Universal Credit (LA Welfare Direct 6/2026, paras 51 to 54). At main (2da212a) the model pays an award in full every year unless the family claims Universal Credit or DWP closes another of its legacy benefits, and nothing in the model prompts a claim on the award's appointed day.

This PR:

adds gov.dwp.ESA.income.awards_payable.{great_britain,northern_ireland}, a 1/0 flag for each jurisdiction with fiscal_year_blend: true, so the model day-weights the date across each fiscal year from 6 April to 5 April;
adds esa_income_appointee_saving (person input, default false) for the art. 3A(2) saving. The saving applies when someone holds an appointment under reg 57 of the Claims and Payments Regulations 2013 immediately before the date, or the Secretary of State determined in the preceding six months that an appointment was likely to be needed. In Northern Ireland, the Department for Communities makes that determination and reg 52 of the 2016 Regulations governs the appointment. The claimant and partner share one award, so when either of them reports the award and has the saving, the model keeps the whole claim payable; it ignores a saving for a member who reports nothing;
adds esa_income_payable_share (person), the share of the year the person's claim stays payable: 1 for a saved claim, otherwise the household's jurisdiction value. esa_income pays each claim for its share, one share for the couple's claim and one for each member outside it;
adds esa_income_abolition_reached (benefit unit): the claimant or partner reports an unsaved award with less than the whole year payable, from 2026-27. claims_uc_at_legacy_closure now reads it beside legacy_benefits_closed, so the family claims Universal Credit when the abolition reaches its award if would_claim_uc_at_legacy_closure. The claim ends the income-related ESA award (esa_income_report_closed) and the Housing Benefit award (housing_benefit_eligible), through the rules main already has;
has legacy_award_is_closed close an income-related ESA report once none of its claim stays payable, from 2027-28, under the same Pension Credit and pension-age conditions as Income Support and income-based JSA. DWP's move then ends the family's other legacy awards whether or not it claims, apart from the Housing Benefit exception below. The model neither prompts a claim for a saved award nor moves its family;
has housing_benefit_eligible keep an existing Housing Benefit award through the move off legacy benefits, whichever legacy benefit closed, when the user sets in_specified_or_temporary_accommodation for the family. Such an award doesn't terminate when the migration notice's deadline passes without a claim (SI 2014/1230 reg 46(2); Northern Ireland: SR 2016/226 reg 47(2)), and the 1 July 2026 abolition of Housing Benefit doesn't reach it (SI 2025/1148 art. 7(4)(a), through reg 6A(2)). A Universal Credit claim still ends the award (see below);
has left_pension_route_at_legacy_closure count a protected mixed-age couple whose award the abolition reaches, so a couple that claims and has a Universal Credit award stops getting pension-age Housing Benefit beside it;
has own_report_is_paid apply the abolition's report closure to a member outside the couple only when both held amounts match the formula on open reports: esa_income and the claimant's and partner's part of it, claimant_or_partner_esa_income (holds_formula_award). Either amount can differ when a user enters esa_income, a reform replaces it, or disable_simulated_benefits holds it; own_report_is_paid then applies only the person's legacy closure and reads the benefit unit's held award. That award covers the whole unit, so an outside member with an open report stays paid while the unit's award stays positive, even if it leaves them nothing. holds_formula_award can't separate two or more outside reporters in one benefit unit when the held total and the couple's part both equal the formula's: own_report_is_paid then applies each one's report closure;
has disable_simulated_benefits hold esa_income_abolition_reached false with the other closures, so the reform prompts no claim.

Contributory ESA continues as new style ESA, and esa_contrib keeps its formula.

Which years change

Model year	Great Britain	Northern Ireland
2025-26 and earlier	1 (unchanged)	1 (unchanged)
2026-27	86/365 = 0.235616 (6 April to 30 June 2026: 25 + 31 + 30 days)	178/365 = 0.487671 (6 April to 30 September 2026: 25 + 31 + 30 + 31 + 31 + 30 days)
2027-28 onwards	0	0

In 2026-27 a family whose award the abolition reaches claims Universal Credit if would_claim_uc_at_legacy_closure, and the claim ends the award for the year. A family that doesn't claim keeps £5,000 x 86/365 = £1,178.08 of a £5,000 award in Great Britain (£2,438.36 in Northern Ireland) and its Housing Benefit. From 2027-28 every unsaved award has ended, and the model moves each affected family off its legacy benefits. Scotland and Wales follow the Great Britain date.

Under art. 3A(1)(b), an award already due to end at the end of a two-week run-on ends on that schedule. A claimant whose migration notice deadline falls on 22 June 2026 and who makes no claim keeps the award until 5 July, the last day of the two weeks beginning with the deadline day (SI 2014/1230 reg 46(1)(a)). The model has no deadline or claim dates, so it pays every unsaved award to 30 June (30 September in Northern Ireland).

Worked household

A single claimant aged 40 in a London council tenancy (rent £5,200 a year, council tax £1,500) reports £5,000 a year of income-related ESA and £4,000 of Housing Benefit, and would_claim_uc is false. The Housing Benefit means test pays £5,200 from the rent. On main every row below pays £5,000 of ESA and £5,200 of Housing Benefit, and no Universal Credit or Council Tax Reduction.

The ESA abolition doesn't end Housing Benefit by itself. The Secretary of State appointed 1 July 2026 for the remaining working-age Housing Benefit awards to end without a Universal Credit claim (SI 2025/1148 art. 7), and the Department for Communities appointed 1 October 2026 in Northern Ireland (SR 2025/176 art. 7), except in specified or temporary accommodation. So under the law this tenant has neither benefit in 2027-28 without a claim, as the model gives. The model doesn't apply art. 7's date: in 2026-27 it pays a family that doesn't claim a full year of Housing Benefit, an approximation that #1910 replaces.

Each cell gives the amount here and, in brackets, the change from main, in pounds. Council Tax Reduction stays £0 in every row.

Earnings	`would_claim_uc_at_legacy_closure`	Model year	Income-related ESA	Housing Benefit	Universal Credit	Household net income
0	False	2026-27	1,178.08 (−3,821.92)	5,200.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	4,798.08 (−3,821.92)
0	False	2027-28	0.00 (−5,000.00)	0.00 (−5,200.00)	0.00 (0.00)	−1,680.00 (−10,200.00)
0	True	2026-27	0.00 (−5,000.00)	0.00 (−5,200.00)	10,298.80 (+10,298.80)	8,718.80 (+98.80)
0	True	2027-28	0.00 (−5,000.00)	0.00 (−5,200.00)	10,518.52 (+10,518.52)	8,838.52 (+318.52)
10,000	False	2026-27	1,178.08 (−3,821.92)	5,200.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	14,798.08 (−3,821.92)
10,000	False	2027-28	0.00 (−5,000.00)	0.00 (−5,200.00)	0.00 (0.00)	8,320.00 (−10,200.00)
10,000	True	2026-27	0.00 (−5,000.00)	0.00 (−5,200.00)	4,798.80 (+4,798.80)	13,218.80 (−5,401.20)
10,000	True	2027-28	0.00 (−5,000.00)	0.00 (−5,200.00)	5,018.52 (+5,018.52)	13,338.52 (−5,181.48)

With the flag at its default, true, the model gives the true rows' amounts, and every output matches main in 2025-26. With in_specified_or_temporary_accommodation, the tenant who doesn't claim keeps their £5,200 of Housing Benefit in 2027-28, for £3,520.00 of net income. The tenant who claims gets the same £10,518.52 of Universal Credit and no Housing Benefit.

Data

The certified data (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1) supply no draw for would_claim_uc_at_legacy_closure, so the model uses its default, true. The model therefore has each affected family claim Universal Credit in 2026-27. In an affected family the claimant or partner reports an unsaved income-related ESA award, and the family neither reports Pension Credit nor consists of a single claimant, or joint claimants both, over the qualifying age for State Pension Credit. A family whose only report belongs to a member outside the couple makes no claim through this path. PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk-data#534, a draft pull request, would draw the flag at DWP's Move to Universal Credit claim rates. No dataset identifies appointees or specified or temporary accommodation, so the saving and the Housing Benefit exception stay off in dataset runs.

What else changes

A family that claims Universal Credit and would get more from Tax-Free Childcare can now forgo the claim in 2027-28. On main an income-related ESA report counted as an award the claim would end, so the family kept its claim; now it counts only while some of the year stays payable (forgoes_universal_credit_for_tax_free_childcare). With a £21,993 maximum award and a £20,000 income reduction, Universal Credit would pay £1,993 against £2,400 of Tax-Free Childcare, so the family now forgoes it.
A family that supplies in_specified_or_temporary_accommodation now keeps its Housing Benefit when any legacy closure moves it, the tax credit closure from 2025-26 and the Income Support and income-based JSA closures from 2026-27 included.
has_own_esa_award, the support component default, the Universal Credit LCWRA default, the mixed-age Pension Credit saving and claims_all_entitled_benefits read the raw report as before. Their documentation now treats the report as the award's history: the work capability assessment behind an ended award still stands, and the report still records the family's claiming.
The model retains its existing working-age Housing Benefit rules; Abolish working-age Housing Benefit from 1 July 2026 (NI 1 October 2026) #1910 adds the closure of those awards on art. 7's dates.

What the model doesn't do

It doesn't model deadline days, claim dates, the two-week run-ons or the six-month window of art. 3A(2)(b).
It doesn't identify appointees in data.
For a family that does not claim Universal Credit in 2026-27, the model keeps the ESA report open for passports and screens throughout the year and pays its amount for the payable share.
It leaves out reg 8(3), under which Housing Benefit for specified or temporary accommodation continues after a Universal Credit claim. Nothing under policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/universal_credit/ reads in_specified_or_temporary_accommodation, so the model's Universal Credit pays a housing costs element for these homes, subject to the benefit cap, and Housing Benefit beside an uncapped award would pay the rent twice. A claim ends the award even when it brings no Universal Credit, so that family gets no help with this rent, at main and on this branch. Rent for these homes doesn't count towards the housing costs element (UC Regs 2013 Sch 1 paras 3(h), 3(i), 3A and 3B); Abolish working-age Housing Benefit from 1 July 2026 (NI 1 October 2026) #1910 models both rules, and Model Housing Benefit for specified (supported) and temporary accommodation at any age #1911 tracks them.

Invariants

The property tests (policyengine_uk/tests/test_esa_income_abolition_properties.py) check these for generated reported-award situations: working-age families of one to three adults, with or without a child, in five regions, with reports of £0 to £6,000, capital around the tariff threshold and limit, and every combination of saving and claim flags, in 2025-26 to 2027-28.

Each fiscal year's awards_payable value equals the share of 6 April to 5 April before the statutory date, counted from the two dates (2015 to 2040).
0 <= esa_income_payable_share <= 1; the claimant and partner share one value; it equals 1 for every member of a saved claim.
From 2027-28 the model pays an unsaved claim nothing, and a member outside the couple with an unsaved claim isn't on income-related ESA.
Contributory ESA never changes, whatever the saving and claim flags.
Before 2026-27 every output matches the earlier rule for every saving and claim flag. The abolition never raises income-related ESA. A family that claims nothing and saves nothing gets its jurisdiction's share of the earlier award, to the penny.
Turning the saving on never lowers esa_income or esa.
A member outside the couple is on income-related ESA only while their report stays open.
Saving a member who reports nothing changes no output.
The claim path never gives income-related ESA: turning would_claim_uc_at_legacy_closure on never raises esa_income, and a family that claims when the abolition reaches its award has no claimant_or_partner_esa_income that year.
The model neither prompts a claim for a saved award nor closes it: esa_income_abolition_reached and legacy_benefits_closed stay false for the family, and a member outside the couple with a saved claim keeps their legacy benefits open.
For families with no work, esa_income, claims_universal_credit and each outside member's status match amounts worked in the test from the regulations (the £6,000 tariff threshold, £1 a week for each £250 or part above it and the £16,000 limit; ESA Regs 2008 regs 110 and 118), the dates and the saving, without the model's code. The test's reference gives a couple's claim one share and pays a saved claim in full.
With no reform holding esa_income, holds_formula_award is true for every benefit unit in every mode and year, so the comparison of the claimant's and partner's part changes no baseline result.

test_keeping_awards_payable_is_saving_every_award checks that a reform keeping awards_payable at 1 gives the same outputs as saving every award.

Invariant 12 also follows from the code. esa_income applies income_related_esa_award_on_reports to open reports, so the first comparison matches. claimant_or_partner_award then finds that esa_income holds the formula's value and takes the same function on the claimant's and partner's open reports, so the second comparison matches unless it sets that part to zero. It does so only where the part, or the stored total that bounds it, falls within half a penny of zero, and then the formula's part also falls within half a penny of zero. is_on_income_related_esa already reads claimant_or_partner_esa_income for the claimant and partner, so the new read adds no cycle.

Test plan

Each file or test ran alone at a3f8b1104, with -n 0, no survey data and a 4 GB memory cap (2 GB for mutants); the cap stopped any run that exceeded its time limit. Later commits change only documentation, comments and the changelog.

YAML policy tests (policyengine-core test):

esa_income/esa_income_abolition.yaml: 36 passed. Three cases are new: the 2027-28 ESA closure keeps Housing Benefit for a family with in_specified_or_temporary_accommodation, the same family without the status loses it, and a family with the status that claims Universal Credit gets none.
housing_benefit/housing_benefit_eligible.yaml: 6 passed. Two cases are new: the tax credit closure keeps Housing Benefit with the status and ends it without.

Python tests (pytest):

test_esa_income_held_outside_award.py (new): 3 passed, one for each way of holding the award.
test_esa_income_abolition_properties.py: the 29 parameter and fixed-case tests passed in one run. test_abolition_invariants, which now checks invariant 12, and test_awards_match_an_independent_reading didn't run on the host, where disk stayed below the run floor. CI runs them on this PR.
test_uc_legacy_closure_properties.py: test_the_closure_flag_only_decides_closure_claims passed (357 s) and test_a_closure_claim_pays_the_universal_credit_of_any_claim passed (617 s), each at full size with a 3,400 s cap.
test_disable_simulated_benefits.py didn't run on the host, where disk stayed below the run floor. CI runs it on this PR.

Fails on origin/main (2da212a): with the reproducer's inputs (a single claimant aged 40 in London reporting £5,000), main pays £5,000 of income-related ESA in 2027-28 against £0 here, and £5,000 in 2026-27 against £1,178.08 without a claim.

Each mutant ran in a scratch copy against esa_income_abolition.yaml unless the row names another test. The first row ran at a3f8b1104. The rest ran on the branch's earlier code, up to 68ccc0856, and the later commits leave their mutated lines unchanged.

Mutant	Failing cases
`holds_formula_award` drops the claimant's and partner's comparison (`test_esa_income_held_outside_award.py`)	3 of 3: the £5,200 unit in the frozen, stored and replaced modes
The claim term leaves `claims_uc_at_legacy_closure`	5: the GB and NI 2026-27 claims, a couple with a saved partner who reports nothing, and both mixed-age couple cases
`legacy_award_is_closed` ignores income-related ESA	5: the GB and NI 2027-28 ends, the outside adult's 2027-28 end, the end of Housing Benefit without a claim, and the 2027-28 claim
The claim term ignores the saving	5: the saved awards in Great Britain (2027-28) and Northern Ireland (2026-27), both saved-couple cases, and the saved award's 2026-27 claim
The closure ignores the saving	3: the saved single and couple awards in 2027-28
Each member's own saving, not the claim's	2: both saved-couple cases in 2027-28
`benunit.sum` for the couple's share	4: both couple cases before and after the abolition, the saved partner who reports nothing, and the saved couple in 2027-28
A saving for a member who reports nothing saves the claim	2: both cases with a saved partner who reports nothing
The pension-age route ignores the abolition	1: the protected mixed-age couple
The claim term drops the Pension Credit age guard	1: the single claimant over the qualifying age
The reform stops holding the claim term (`test_disable_simulated_benefits.py -k no_family_is_moved`)	2: 2026-27 and 2027-28, where the reform would prompt the ESA claimant's claim

Existing tests changed

No expected value in a test on main changes. Two property-test reference calculations now include Universal Credit claims prompted by the ESA abolition. Cases about other rules opt out of that claim.

test_uc_legacy_closure_properties.py: expected_closure closes an unsaved income-related ESA report from 2027-28 under the Pension Credit conditions; a new expected_reached gives the abolition's reach from 2026-27; a family claims on either; and a claiming family gets no income-related ESA. The flag property and the closure-claim differential treat a reached family as moved.
test_legacy_award_work_properties.py and legacy_award_work_reference.py: in 2026-27 the couple's ESA reports close when the abolition reaches them, because the family claims with would_claim_uc_at_legacy_closure at its default.
test_disable_simulated_benefits.py: new assertions that the abolition reaches the claimant's own award from 2026-27 without the reform, and that the reform prompts no claim.

Cases about other rules set would_claim_uc_at_legacy_closure false, so the family keeps the award they test:

esa_income_remunerative_work.yaml, the two 2026-27 limit cases: they test the permitted-work limit, and a claim would close the report.
pension_credit/mixed_age_couples.yaml, "HB alongside income-related ESA is working-age HB, so no saving": it tests the saving inference and the continuing Housing Benefit award, which a claim would end.
test_mixed_age_couple_properties.py, every generated family: its reference formulas from before the mixed-age couple rules read would_claim_uc alone.

universal_credit/person_legacy_benefits_closed.yaml Case 1 gives the claimant esa_income_appointee_saving instead: it tests that an outside member's closed report leaves the couple open, and from 2027-28 the claimant's own unsaved report would close the couple.

Thirteen existing YAML cases and four Python files test another rule on an income-related ESA award in 2026-27 or 2027-28, so each ESA reporter there gets esa_income_appointee_saving: true, which keeps the award payable for the whole year (inputs only):

esa_income/esa_income_capital.yaml: "has no tariff income at the lower capital threshold", "tariff income rounds incomplete capital steps up" and "remains eligible at the upper capital limit" (2026);
esa_income/esa_income_remunerative_work.yaml: "Issue 2395 outside closed IS report leaves the couple ESA award open" (2027);
legacy_award_readers/council_tax_reduction_passports.yaml: the five non-dependant cases (2027);
legacy_award_readers/housing_benefit_pension_age_regulations.yaml: the two ESA cases (2026);
legacy_award_readers/pension_credit_earnings_disregard.yaml: "Another member's income-related ESA leaves a single pensioner with the £5 earnings disregard" and "The partner's income-related ESA gives the couple the £20 earnings disregard" (2026);
test_esa_permitted_work_nlw_reforms.py (2026), the two 2027 Merton non-dependant tests in test_legacy_award_readers_properties.py, the 2027 cases of test_legacy_closure_scope.py, and every award in test_esa_income_universal_credit_claim_properties.py, whose 2027 cases test the Universal Credit claim under art. 3A(3).

Overlap

Bar income-related ESA at pensionable age and on entitlement to Pension Credit #2807 (fix-2565-esa-pension-credit, head 1d6df1a43) merges cleanly. Whichever branch merges second adds esa_income_appointee_saving: true to the ESA reporters of Cases 4, 5 and 6 (the member who reports), Case 12 (the member outside the couple) and Cases 13 and 14 (both members) of esa_income_pension_age.yaml, because each asserts a full-year income-related ESA award in 2026-27. The six additions apply cleanly to the merged tree.
Abolish working-age Housing Benefit from 1 July 2026 (NI 1 October 2026) #1910 (working-age Housing Benefit, head 2d0e49417) adds the same kind of term for Housing Benefit to claims_uc_at_legacy_closure, and the same flag line to the mixed_age_couples.yaml case. Beyond its existing conflicts with main (housing_benefit_eligible.py and housing_benefit/takeup.yaml), it conflicts with this branch in those two files; a merge ORs both abolition terms and keeps one copy of the flag line. In housing_benefit_eligible.py, Abolish working-age Housing Benefit from 1 July 2026 (NI 1 October 2026) #1910 adds its own route for specified or temporary accommodation and takes those homes out of the Universal Credit housing costs element, so a merge keeps Abolish working-age Housing Benefit from 1 July 2026 (NI 1 October 2026) #1910's route, which covers this branch's exception. SI 2025/1148 art. 7(4)(b) and SR 2025/176 art. 7(4)(b) keep Housing Benefit for an appointee-saved income-related ESA claimant, and housing_benefit_payable_share at Abolish working-age Housing Benefit from 1 July 2026 (NI 1 October 2026) #1910's head has no input for that saving. Whichever PR lands second makes it read esa_income_appointee_saving, or the merged model ends that Housing Benefit on the appointed day.
Add overseas and other real estate as property components, and count UK land once in household land #2688, Fix structural reforms for their requested periods #2670, End the Pension Credit, Child Benefit and CTC qualifying young person status for Income Support in own right #2302, Add the Child Tax Credit qualifying young person period after leaving education #2301 and Place the Universal Credit and Pension Credit qualifying young person terminal date from the date of birth #2300 conflict with this branch only where they already conflict with main. Count 16-year-olds outside education as UC and Pension Credit qualifying young persons until the 1 September after their 16th birthday #2279, Value means-tested capital less 10% sale expenses and secured debt (UC reg 49 and legacy equivalents) #1969, Apply Housing Benefit and national Council Tax Reduction non-dependant deductions as legislated #2007 and Derive economic assumption index horizon from the growth series #2756 merge cleanly.
For policy changes: YAML tests whose expected values come from an external source: esa_income_abolition.yaml works each amount by hand from art. 3A's dates and ESA Regs 2008 reg 118, and the Housing Benefit cases from SI 2014/1230 reg 46(2) and the means test with no income.
make format equivalent on the changed Python files: ruff format --check, ruff check, ruff check --select F811,F821 policyengine_uk, git diff --check (ruff 0.17.2).
Changelog fragment changelog.d/2562.fixed.md.

Reproducer

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/esa_income/esa_income_abolition.yaml::Great Britain 2027-28 pays no income-related ESA

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#518 queued

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Add gov.dwp.ESA.income.awards_payable, a 1/0 flag per jurisdiction with fiscal_year_blend, so income-related ESA awards end on 1 July 2026 in Great Britain and 1 October 2026 in Northern Ireland. esa_income pays each award for esa_income_payable_share of the year, and esa_income_report_closed ends the report once none of the year is payable. esa_income_appointee_saving keeps an award saved under art. 3A(2). own_report_is_paid reads the same closure as the award. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

… a UC claim Hand-worked YAML cases for 2025-26, 2026-27 (86/365 in Great Britain, 178/365 in Northern Ireland) and 2027-28, the appointee saving, a saved award with a Universal Credit claim, contributory-only and mixed awards, a family the legacy closure already moved and a non-dependent adult's own award. forgoes_universal_credit_for_tax_free_childcare counts an ESA report as a legacy award a claim would end only while some of the year is payable. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Thirteen YAML cases in 2026-27 and 2027-28 test capital, work, passports, Housing Benefit regulations and the Pension Credit disregard on an income-related ESA award. The abolition now ends or shortens those awards, so each reporter gets esa_income_appointee_saving (SI 2025/1148 art. 3A(2)), which keeps the award payable all year; expected values are unchanged. The UC-claim property test saves every award, so 2027 still tests art. 3A(3). Add the abolition property tests. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…bolition Python tests that read income-related ESA in 2026-27 or 2027-28 for another rule give their reporters esa_income_appointee_saving (SI 2025/1148 art. 3A(2)): the NLW permitted-work reform, the Merton non-dependant properties and the legacy-closure scope cases. Under disable_simulated_benefits an outside adult's own income-related ESA now ends with the abolition, as income-based JSA ends with its scheme, so that test expects it. The property test runs each population once with three copies (saving as drawn, every award saved, none saved) and checks that a reform keeping the parameter at 1 equals saving every award. Add the changelog fragment and a paragraph on the abolition to docs/engineering/esa-jsa-report-screening.md. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…mber's status Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Ordinary parameters take their 30 April value; the flag's fiscal_year_blend day-weights each fiscal year. Drop a sentence about dated reform keys that the current reform routes no longer follow, and say plainly that the appointee saving is off in dataset runs. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…lose it from 2027-28 - esa_income_abolition_reached: the claimant's or partner's unsaved income-related ESA claim is payable for less than the whole year; it joins legacy_benefits_closed in claims_uc_at_legacy_closure. - legacy_award_is_closed closes an ESA report whose claim has nothing payable, under the Income Support and JSA Pension Credit guard. - esa_income_payable_share is the claim's share: a couple's claim is saved when either member who reports it is saved. - own_report_is_paid lets a stored award, not the abolition closure, decide an outside member's status, so disable_simulated_benefits keeps them on the award it pays; the reform holds the new claim term. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

… claim - esa_income_abolition.yaml: share cases opt out of the claim; new cases for the claim (GB, NI, couples, a protected mixed-age couple), the 2027-28 move off legacy benefits, saved claims, a saved partner who reports nothing, and the Pension Credit age guard. - Property tests: an independent reading of each award from the regulations, one share per couple, saving a non-reporter changes nothing, and the claim path never gives income-related ESA. - The UC closure and work-screen references model the claim; families in tests about other rules set would_claim_uc_at_legacy_closure false or the saving. - disable_simulated_benefits keeps an outside adult on the ESA it pays. - own_report_is_paid reads the benefit unit population for the award. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…aid's signature Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

… a legacy closure A family that supplies in_specified_or_temporary_accommodation keeps an existing Housing Benefit award when DWP moves it off a closed legacy benefit: SI 2014/1230 reg 46(2) (NI: SR 2016/226 reg 47(2)) keeps such an award at the deadline whichever legacy benefit closed, and SI 2025/1148 art. 7(4)(a) reaches the same cases through reg 6A(2). A Universal Credit claim still ends the award, because the model's Universal Credit pays a housing costs element for these homes. Tests cover the ESA closure and the tax credit closure, each with a control that leaves the status unset, and a family with the status that claims. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

… amounts are the formula's own_report_is_paid now applies the abolition's report closure to an outside member's status only when the stored esa_income and the claimant's and partner's part (claimant_or_partner_esa_income) both match the formula on open reports (holds_formula_award). Under disable_simulated_benefits, an entered award or a replacing reform, a held couple part of £5,000 against a formula's £5,200 identifies the outside adult's held £200, so their status no longer depends on whether the claimant's own report happens to give the held total. The new test holds the awards three ways and varies the claimant's 2027-28 report across £5,199, £5,200 and £5,201. Invariant 12 checks that without a reform both amounts match the formula for every generated benefit unit, so the extra comparison changes no baseline result. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…e who acts in its documentation esa_income_abolition_reached lists every input it reads: the claimant's and partner's ESA and Pension Credit reports, the household's country, the saving, the Pension Credit age conditions and mixed-age couple status. would_claim_uc_at_legacy_closure says the certified data (1.58.1) carry no draw and that PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk-data#534 plans one. Documentation and comments introduce the Department for Communities by name and give the model, not a share or a year, the paying verbs. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…gelog Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…in active voice Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Name the benefit cap and the nil claim where the docs say Housing Benefit beside a claim would pay the rent twice, and state that the benefit unit's held award decides an outside member's status. Words only. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

github-actions · 2026-11-02T02:36:35Z

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 2da212abcf against head 1f899a0186, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 44 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

New warnings

Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) is not zero for every unit (inert:esa_income): 2026-27: zero for every unit; 2027-28: zero for every unit; 2028-29: zero for every unit

Notes

In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure	Year	Base	Head	Change
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	2031-32	71k	0k	-71.3k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	2030-31	71k	0k	-71.1k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	2029-30	71k	0k	-70.9k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	2027-28	71k	0k	-70.8k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	2028-29	71k	0k	-70.8k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	2026-27	71k	0k	-70.7k
Universal Credit	2031-32	£88.21bn	£89.38bn	+£1.18bn
Universal Credit	2030-31	£87.61bn	£88.76bn	+£1.15bn
Universal Credit	2029-30	£86.11bn	£87.22bn	+£1.12bn
Universal Credit	2028-29	£84.96bn	£86.07bn	+£1.11bn
Universal Credit	2027-28	£82.95bn	£84.02bn	+£1.08bn
Universal Credit	2026-27	£80.52bn	£81.56bn	+£1.04bn
Housing Benefit	2031-32	1,232k	1,168k	-63.4k
Housing Benefit	2030-31	1,229k	1,166k	-63.2k
Housing Benefit	2029-30	1,227k	1,164k	-63.1k
Housing Benefit	2028-29	1,227k	1,164k	-62.9k
Housing Benefit	2027-28	1,244k	1,181k	-63.0k
Housing Benefit	2026-27	1,245k	1,182k	-62.9k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	2031-32	£0.92bn	£0.00bn	-£920.0m
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	2030-31	£0.90bn	£0.00bn	-£900.1m
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	2029-30	£0.88bn	£0.00bn	-£880.4m
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	2028-29	£0.86bn	£0.00bn	-£860.8m
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	2027-28	£0.84bn	£0.00bn	-£844.1m
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	2026-27	£0.82bn	£0.00bn	-£815.3m
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	2029-30	£37,197	£36,998	-£199
Housing Benefit	2031-32	£10.27bn	£9.83bn	-£446.9m
Housing Benefit	2030-31	£9.99bn	£9.56bn	-£433.4m
Housing Benefit	2029-30	£9.69bn	£9.28bn	-£419.6m
Housing Benefit	2028-29	£9.46bn	£9.05bn	-£407.2m
Housing Benefit	2027-28	£9.23bn	£8.83bn	-£392.6m
Housing Benefit	2026-27	£8.89bn	£8.51bn	-£376.3m
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	2027-28	£28,711	£28,619	-£92
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£36,611	£36,519	-£92
Universal Credit	2031-32	6,223k	6,295k	+72.1k
Universal Credit	2030-31	6,271k	6,343k	+71.9k
Universal Credit	2029-30	6,292k	6,363k	+71.8k
Universal Credit	2028-29	6,297k	6,369k	+71.6k
Universal Credit	2027-28	6,336k	6,408k	+71.7k
Universal Credit	2026-27	6,347k	6,418k	+71.6k
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	2031-32	£30,151	£30,086	-£64

4 more flags are in the report artifact.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Universal Credit	0	+£1.04bn	+£1.08bn	+£1.11bn	+£1.12bn	+£1.15bn	+£1.18bn
Housing Benefit	0	-£376.3m	-£392.6m	-£407.2m	-£419.6m	-£433.4m	-£446.9m
Council Tax Reduction	0	-£3.1m	-£3.2m	-£3.5m	-£3.5m	-£3.7m	-£3.8m
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	0	-£815.3m	-£844.1m	-£860.8m	-£880.4m	-£900.1m	-£920.0m
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Universal Credit	0	+71.6k	+71.7k	+71.6k	+71.8k	+71.9k	+72.1k
Housing Benefit	0	-62.9k	-63.0k	-62.9k	-63.1k	-63.2k	-63.4k
Council Tax Reduction	0	-1.1k	-1.1k	-1.1k	-713	-715	-717
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	0	-70.7k	-70.8k	-70.8k	-70.9k	-71.1k	-71.3k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government spending	0 †	-£153.1m †	-£164.3m †	-£164.6m †	-£188.0m †	-£191.0m †	-£195.6m †
Government balance, each receipt once	0 †	+£153.1m †	+£164.3m †	+£164.6m †	+£188.0m †	+£191.0m †	+£195.6m †

Model totals

Measure	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_spending	-£153.1m †	-£164.3m †	-£164.6m †	-£188.0m †	-£191.0m †	-£195.6m †
household_benefits	-£153.1m †	-£164.3m †	-£164.6m †	-£188.0m †	-£191.0m †	-£195.6m †
gov_balance	+£153.1m †	+£164.3m †	+£164.6m †	+£188.0m †	+£191.0m †	+£195.6m †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	0 †	-£153.1m †	-£164.3m †	-£164.6m †	-£188.0m †	-£191.0m †	-£195.6m †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	0	-£153.1m	-£164.3m	-£164.6m	-£187.9m	-£191.0m	-£195.6m

Poverty rates

Measure	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	+0.03pp	+0.03pp	+0.03pp	+0.03pp	+0.03pp	+0.03pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.02pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.02pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+0.04pp	+0.04pp	+0.04pp	+0.04pp	+0.04pp	+0.04pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	-0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.03pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	+0.00pp	+0.01pp	-0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	+0.03pp	+0.03pp	+0.03pp	+0.03pp	+0.03pp	+0.03pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+0.01pp	-0.05pp	+0.00pp	+0.02pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	0	-0.09pp	-0.01pp	0	0	-0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	+0.01pp	-0.06pp	-0.00pp	+0.02pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+0.04pp	+0.02pp	+0.04pp	+0.04pp	+0.04pp	+0.04pp

People in poverty

Measure	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	+5.8k	+6.6k	+7.2k	+7.2k	+7.2k	+6.9k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	-52	-52	-52	-52	-52	-52
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	+2.2k	+3.1k	+3.7k	+3.6k	+3.6k	+3.3k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	+3.6k	+3.6k	+3.6k	+3.6k	+3.6k	+3.6k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+7.7k	+8.8k	+8.6k	+9.2k	+9.2k	+13.8k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	+3.3k	+4.3k	+4.2k	+4.8k	+4.8k	+9.4k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+4.4k	+4.4k	+4.4k	+4.4k	+4.4k	+4.5k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	+4.4k	+6.6k	-3.7k	+5.7k	+7.1k	+6.9k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	-70	-52	-4.4k	-326	-52	-52
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	+925	+3.1k	-2.4k	+3.1k	+3.5k	+3.3k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	+3.5k	+3.6k	+3.2k	+3.0k	+3.6k	+3.6k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+7.9k	-35.0k	+1.9k	+10.6k	+10.4k	+8.4k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	0	-13.6k	-1.5k	0	0	-1.2k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	+3.5k	-24.0k	-628	+6.6k	+6.3k	+4.7k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+4.4k	+2.6k	+4.0k	+4.0k	+4.2k	+4.8k

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0	+0.0000	+0.0001	+0.0000	+0.0001	+0.0001	+0.0001

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	+£12 †	+£3.19 †	+£7.97 †	-£6.08 †	+£13 †	+£14 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	-£2.01 †	-£92 †	-£10 †	+£6.81 †	+£1.52 †	-£64 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	-£55 †	+£7.20 †	-£92 †	-£199 †	-£51 †	-£30 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	-£16 †	-£14 †	+£44 †	+£91 †	-£20 †	+£11 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	-£2.08 †	+£23 †	-£32 †	-£5.18 †	-£6.86 †	-£8.60 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	+£34 †	+£42 †	+£49 †	+£39 †	+£41 †	+£42 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	+£8.24 †	+£8.19 †	+£6.42 †	+£12 †	+£7.65 †	+£9.60 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	+£2.37 †	+£2.39 †	+£2.47 †	+£2.46 †	+£5.27 †	+£2.48 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.01 †	-£0.01 †	-£0.01 †	-£0.01 †	-£0.01 †	-£0.01 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.61 †	-£0.64 †	-£0.63 †	-£0.62 †	-£0.62 †	-£0.63 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	+£2	-£0	-£3	-£0	-£0	+£1
Raise higher rate by 1pp	+£0	-£0	-£0	-£0	-£0	+£0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	+£0	-£0	-£3	-£1	-£1	+£2
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	0	-£0	-£0	-£0	-£0	0
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	-£13,572	-£13,492	-£12,526	-£12,929	-£13,599	-£14,650
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	+£1	-£0	+£0	-£0	suppressed	suppressed
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	+£7	+£6	-£25	-£8	-£5	+£16
Raise additional rate by 3pp	-£0	-£0	-£0	-£0	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	-£37.1m	-£38.6m	-£40.0m	-£41.0m	-£42.0m	-£42.9m
Raise the State Pension by 10%	+£5.1m	+£5.2m	+£5.4m	+£5.6m	+£5.8m	+£5.9m

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	+£13,571	+£13,492	+£12,526	+£12,930	+£13,599	+£14,653
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	+£37.7m	+£39.2m	+£40.6m	+£41.7m	+£42.7m	+£43.7m

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1	+£2 (+0.0%)	+£2 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£2 (+0.0%)	+£2 (+0.0%)	+£2 (+0.0%)
Decile 2	+£4 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)
Decile 3	0	0	+£1 (+0.0%)	-£2 (-0.0%)	-£2 (-0.0%)	-£2 (-0.0%)
Decile 4	-£35 (-0.1%)	-£34 (-0.1%)	-£35 (-0.1%)	-£36 (-0.1%)	-£37 (-0.1%)	-£37 (-0.1%)
Decile 5	-£12 (-0.0%)	-£13 (-0.0%)	-£14 (-0.0%)	-£16 (-0.0%)	-£17 (-0.0%)	-£17 (-0.0%)
Decile 6	-£8 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£11 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£11 (-0.0%)	-£11 (-0.0%)
Decile 7	-£2 (-0.0%)	-£2 (-0.0%)	-£2 (-0.0%)	-£3 (-0.0%)	-£2 (-0.0%)	-£3 (-0.0%)
Decile 8	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 9	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 10	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
all	-£5 (-0.0%)	-£5 (-0.0%)	-£5 (-0.0%)	-£6 (-0.0%)	-£6 (-0.0%)	-£6 (-0.0%)

Year	People gaining over £1	People losing over £1
2025-26	0.0%	0.0%
2026-27	0.1%	0.1%
2027-28	0.0%	0.1%
2028-29	0.0%	0.1%
2029-30	0.0%	0.1%
2030-31	0.0%	0.1%
2031-32	0.0%	0.1%

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,888,684 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,777,260 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,727,917 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 92 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main `2da212abcf`	uk 2.170.0 (files `e654eb5f6f55`), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	`77aac721ac5e`	`7cb61324a46b`	2116.56s
head	#2813 merged into main `1f899a0186`	uk 2.170.0 (files `b93aa787f515`), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	`77aac721ac5e`	`7cb61324a46b`	2155.78s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Income tax	£294.46bn	£315.23bn	£335.83bn	£351.28bn	£366.96bn	£385.36bn	£400.00bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£51.70bn	£54.14bn	£56.13bn	£57.73bn	£59.76bn	£61.64bn	£63.51bn
National Insurance (employer)	£148.71bn	£155.37bn	£160.88bn	£165.09bn	£172.06bn	£177.36bn	£182.57bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.60bn	£13.15bn	£13.60bn	£14.11bn	£14.67bn	£15.24bn	£15.80bn
Student loan repayments	£7.82bn	£8.13bn	£8.39bn	£8.58bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.29bn
VAT excluding private school fees	£249.37bn	£256.87bn	£266.33bn	£272.70bn	£278.97bn	£285.24bn	£291.59bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£1.95bn	£2.01bn	£2.09bn	£2.14bn	£2.20bn	£2.26bn	£2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.71bn	£24.13bn	£26.00bn	£26.83bn	£26.51bn	£25.78bn	£24.63bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.26bn	£4.40bn	£4.41bn	£4.42bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.45bn
Council tax	£49.21bn	£52.16bn	£54.89bn	£57.95bn	£61.16bn	£64.47bn	£67.91bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.63bn	£0.66bn	£0.69bn	£0.72bn
Business rates	£34.68bn	£36.20bn	£38.00bn	£39.46bn	£42.27bn	£43.25bn	£44.29bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.88bn	£7.32bn	£7.66bn	£8.06bn	£8.47bn	£8.91bn	£9.35bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£4.72bn	£4.57bn	£5.29bn	£6.03bn	£6.37bn	£6.92bn	£7.45bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.07bn	£0.08bn	£0.08bn	£0.09bn	£0.10bn	£0.10bn	£0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.38bn	£0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
State Pension	£121.68bn	£125.92bn	£126.73bn	£129.50bn	£132.99bn	£136.66bn	£140.43bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.03bn	£7.29bn	£7.48bn	£7.60bn	£7.84bn	£8.03bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.86bn	£1.85bn	£1.79bn	£1.77bn	£1.78bn	£1.78bn	£1.78bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.48bn	£81.56bn	£84.02bn	£86.07bn	£87.22bn	£88.76bn	£89.38bn
Housing Benefit	£8.56bn	£8.51bn	£8.83bn	£9.05bn	£9.28bn	£9.56bn	£9.83bn
Council Tax Reduction	£2.07bn	£2.19bn	£2.31bn	£2.44bn	£2.58bn	£2.72bn	£2.86bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£0.79bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.20bn	£5.37bn	£5.56bn	£5.69bn	£5.82bn	£5.95bn	£6.09bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn
Income Support	£0.11bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£26.95bn	£28.03bn	£29.05bn	£30.09bn	£30.75bn	£31.51bn	£32.21bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.49bn	£7.79bn	£8.07bn	£8.36bn	£8.55bn	£8.76bn	£8.95bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.68bn	£9.03bn	£9.36bn	£9.69bn	£9.90bn	£10.15bn	£10.38bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.48bn	£4.66bn	£4.83bn	£5.00bn	£5.11bn	£5.27bn	£5.42bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.68bn	£0.69bn	£0.71bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.19bn	£16.82bn	£17.39bn	£18.00bn	£18.39bn	£18.84bn	£19.25bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.49bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.30bn	£3.41bn	£3.54bn	£3.62bn	£3.70bn	£3.78bn	£3.87bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.12bn	£1.16bn	£1.20bn	£1.23bn	£1.26bn	£1.29bn	£1.32bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.71bn	£0.73bn	£0.75bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.99bn	£3.50bn	£3.59bn	£3.71bn	£3.78bn	£3.86bn	£3.93bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.06bn	£2.22bn	£2.29bn	£2.37bn	£2.43bn	£2.48bn	£2.53bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Childcare Offer for Wales	£0.26bn	£0.28bn	£0.28bn	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£203.89bn	£204.30bn	£204.56bn	£204.91bn	£205.34bn	£205.85bn	£206.35bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.05bn	£25.10bn	£25.14bn	£25.18bn	£25.23bn	£25.30bn	£25.36bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Household Energy Payment	£0.00bn	£2.11bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
State Pension	11,264k	11,145k	10,819k	10,700k	10,723k	10,750k	10,776k
Pension Credit	1,486k	1,480k	1,472k	1,452k	1,450k	1,455k	1,464k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,844k	7,783k	7,473k	7,375k	7,391k	7,409k	7,427k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	803k	802k	800k	797k	799k	801k	802k
Universal Credit	6,342k	6,418k	6,408k	6,369k	6,363k	6,343k	6,295k
Housing Benefit	1,249k	1,182k	1,181k	1,164k	1,164k	1,166k	1,168k
Council Tax Reduction	3,176k	3,194k	3,199k	3,213k	3,223k	3,235k	3,241k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	71k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	719k	720k	721k	722k	724k	726k	728k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	67k	67k	67k	68k	68k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,567k	3,575k	3,579k	3,585k	3,593k	3,602k	3,611k
Disability Living Allowance	1,291k	1,294k	1,296k	1,298k	1,300k	1,304k	1,307k
Attendance Allowance	1,695k	1,698k	1,700k	1,703k	1,707k	1,711k	1,715k
Carer's Allowance	1,034k	1,037k	1,038k	1,040k	1,042k	1,060k	1,062k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	137k	137k	138k	138k	138k	139k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	93k	93k	94k	94k	94k	94k	94k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,123k	8,120k	8,120k	8,130k	8,145k	8,161k	8,178k
Scottish Child Payment	351k	352k	352k	353k	350k	348k	337k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	200k	200k	201k	201k	201k	202k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	333k	333k	334k	334k	335k	336k	337k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	181k	182k	182k	182k	182k	183k	183k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k
Widowed Parent's Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,043k	1,027k	1,014k	1,009k	1,011k	1,009k	993k
Extended childcare entitlement	795k	800k	796k	797k	798k	798k	792k
Universal childcare entitlement	1,071k	1,072k	1,072k	1,073k	1,076k	1,079k	1,074k
Targeted childcare entitlement	165k	156k	154k	154k	155k	155k	150k
Childcare Offer for Wales	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	99k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	12k	12k	12k	12k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Household Energy Payment	0k	21,065k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£892.00bn	£934.66bn	£980.50bn	£1,015.93bn	£1,054.24bn	£1,091.56bn	£1,124.90bn
Government spending	£529.38bn †	£545.51bn †	£550.61bn †	£559.35bn †	£567.02bn †	£575.76bn †	£583.41bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£362.62bn †	£389.16bn †	£429.90bn †	£456.58bn †	£487.22bn †	£515.80bn †	£541.48bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£892.00bn	£934.66bn	£980.50bn	£1,015.93bn	£1,054.24bn	£1,091.56bn	£1,124.90bn
household_tax	£491.97bn	£520.41bn	£551.21bn	£576.01bn	£601.00bn	£626.70bn	£648.42bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£484.15bn	£512.28bn	£542.82bn	£566.95bn	£591.72bn	£617.16bn	£638.62bn
gov_spending	£529.38bn †	£545.51bn †	£550.61bn †	£559.35bn †	£567.02bn †	£575.76bn †	£583.41bn †
household_benefits	£529.38bn †	£545.51bn †	£550.61bn †	£559.35bn †	£567.02bn †	£575.76bn †	£583.41bn †
gov_balance	£362.62bn †	£389.16bn †	£429.90bn †	£456.58bn †	£487.22bn †	£515.80bn †	£541.48bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,637.96bn	£1,702.77bn	£1,757.35bn	£1,806.41bn	£1,855.97bn	£1,912.43bn	£1,970.44bn
Household net income	£1,636.69bn †	£1,687.66bn †	£1,715.29bn †	£1,747.33bn †	£1,778.51bn †	£1,816.83bn †	£1,859.50bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,449.57bn	£1,499.67bn	£1,530.70bn	£1,565.01bn	£1,597.70bn	£1,635.41bn	£1,676.43bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,245k	69,383k	69,473k	69,592k	69,738k	69,912k	70,080k
Benefit units	35,110k	35,181k	35,226k	35,286k	35,360k	35,449k	35,534k
Households	31,046k	31,108k	31,149k	31,201k	31,267k	31,345k	31,420k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.3%	15.5%	16.4%	16.3%	16.5%	16.5%	16.6%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.7%	22.1%	23.3%	22.9%	23.1%	23.2%	23.5%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.1%	13.8%	14.7%	14.7%	14.8%	14.8%	15.0%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.4%	14.0%	13.8%	14.0%	14.0%	13.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.6%	21.1%	22.1%	22.6%	22.9%	23.1%	23.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.3%	31.3%	32.3%	32.5%	32.9%	33.4%	34.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.8%	21.6%	21.9%	22.0%	22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.7%	12.4%	13.2%	13.2%	13.3%	13.4%	13.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.0%	16.0%	16.4%	16.3%	16.4%	16.3%	16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.9%	22.9%	23.3%	22.9%	23.0%	22.9%	23.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.5%	14.1%	14.6%	14.7%	14.7%	14.7%	15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.5%	14.1%	14.0%	13.8%	13.8%	13.9%	13.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.4%	21.0%	21.2%	21.3%	21.3%	21.5%	21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.1%	31.1%	31.1%	31.0%	31.1%	31.2%	31.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.2%	20.4%	20.5%	20.6%	20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.5%	12.4%	12.2%	11.8%	11.7%	11.9%	12.1%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,278k	10,784k	11,409k	11,373k	11,482k	11,520k	11,657k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,688k	3,314k	3,496k	3,445k	3,480k	3,502k	3,549k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,965k	5,895k	6,311k	6,366k	6,423k	6,434k	6,524k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,624k	1,575k	1,601k	1,562k	1,579k	1,584k	1,584k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,944k	14,607k	15,319k	15,730k	15,945k	16,150k	16,440k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,975k	4,682k	4,837k	4,888k	4,945k	5,040k	5,179k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,463k	8,465k	8,976k	9,348k	9,496k	9,588k	9,715k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,506k	1,461k	1,506k	1,494k	1,505k	1,522k	1,546k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,750k	11,088k	11,394k	11,360k	11,422k	11,423k	11,657k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,872k	3,423k	3,496k	3,440k	3,466k	3,454k	3,549k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,159k	6,014k	6,304k	6,360k	6,392k	6,393k	6,524k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,720k	1,652k	1,594k	1,560k	1,565k	1,576k	1,584k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,849k	14,560k	14,740k	14,811k	14,884k	15,024k	15,242k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,942k	4,660k	4,660k	4,662k	4,679k	4,707k	4,805k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,426k	8,444k	8,687k	8,823k	8,880k	8,974k	9,067k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,482k	1,457k	1,394k	1,327k	1,326k	1,343k	1,370k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3080	0.3053	0.3059	0.3058	0.3063	0.3069	0.3085

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,681 †	£18,010 †	£17,918 †	£18,160 †	£18,301 †	£18,544 †	£18,730 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£27,939 †	£29,021 †	£28,619 †	£29,003 †	£29,283 †	£29,692 †	£30,086 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,320 †	£35,430 †	£36,080 †	£36,519 †	£36,998 †	£37,686 †	£38,158 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£38,933 †	£40,671 †	£41,710 †	£42,771 †	£43,425 †	£44,112 †	£44,445 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,239 †	£45,565 †	£46,036 †	£46,927 †	£47,709 †	£48,577 †	£50,271 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,927 †	£49,244 †	£50,935 †	£51,988 †	£52,981 †	£53,983 †	£54,722 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£55,662 †	£56,579 †	£57,450 †	£57,677 †	£58,741 †	£59,659 †	£61,092 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£68,789 †	£70,805 †	£71,860 †	£73,469 †	£73,883 †	£75,322 †	£77,181 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£78,890 †	£81,013 †	£80,861 †	£82,646 †	£85,464 †	£86,946 †	£89,509 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,005 †	£120,339 †	£124,741 †	£126,631 †	£125,971 †	£128,600 †	£130,937 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.41bn	£6.66bn	£6.63bn	£6.85bn	£7.03bn	£7.25bn	£7.49bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.61bn	£3.87bn	£4.00bn	£4.22bn	£4.44bn	£4.71bn	£4.83bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.80bn	£-3.92bn	£-3.98bn	£-4.04bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.23bn	£-1.95bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-1.99bn	£-1.75bn	£-1.55bn	£-1.38bn	£-1.30bn	£-1.18bn	£-1.07bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.77bn	£-21.32bn	£-21.75bn	£-21.99bn	£-22.34bn	£-22.75bn	£-22.94bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£10.89bn	£11.30bn	£11.71bn	£12.01bn	£12.31bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£24.89bn	£25.71bn	£26.63bn	£27.24bn	£27.87bn	£28.50bn	£29.14bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.90bn	£3.15bn	£3.22bn	£3.41bn	£3.61bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.06bn	£-3.22bn	£-3.30bn	£-3.39bn	£-3.48bn	£-3.53bn	£-3.54bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.78bn	£-8.01bn	£-8.24bn	£-8.46bn	£-8.81bn	£-8.55bn	£-8.88bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.55bn	£6.86bn	£6.79bn	£7.00bn	£7.20bn	£7.44bn	£7.66bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.61bn	£3.92bn	£4.01bn	£4.23bn	£4.45bn	£4.72bn	£4.84bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.93bn	£-4.07bn	£-4.13bn	£-4.18bn	£-4.22bn	£-4.40bn	£-1.75bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.33bn	£2.14bn	£1.94bn	£1.76bn	£1.65bn	£1.52bn	£1.40bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.74bn	£21.31bn	£21.78bn	£22.04bn	£22.37bn	£22.78bn	£22.99bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.15bn	£11.63bn	£12.00bn	£12.29bn	£12.61bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£24.69bn	£25.51bn	£26.42bn	£27.03bn	£27.65bn	£28.28bn	£28.91bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.90bn	£3.15bn	£3.22bn	£3.42bn	£3.62bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.06bn	£3.22bn	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.47bn	£3.53bn	£3.55bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.68bn	£11.17bn	£11.28bn	£11.60bn	£12.04bn	£12.47bn	£12.97bn

MaxGhenis and others added 18 commits October 31, 2026 20:07

Say in is_on_income_related_esa that the abolition ends an outside me…

eb090e0

…mber's status Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Describe the abolition's claim path, run-on exception and award history

1a0756c

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Look up the ESA award helper in a module map, keeping own_report_is_p…

f53a049

…aid's signature Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Name who acts in the abolition's documentation and test comments

59e8f80

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Name the actor in claims_all_entitled_benefits documentation

68ccc08

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Describe the 2027-28 move and the accommodation exception in the chan…

f82e81f

…gelog Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Name who appoints the Housing Benefit dates and what the savings do, …

509842c

…in active voice Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Nov 2, 2026

Model Housing Benefit for specified (supported) and temporary accommodation at any age #1911

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Model the 2026 income-related ESA abolition and its UC claims - #2813

Model the 2026 income-related ESA abolition and its UC claims#2813
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MaxGhenis commented Nov 2, 2026

What and why

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