🧪 Prototype: inflection points × prediction markets (/signals)

[lksbrssr]

⛔️ Draft / for discussion — do not merge. Standalone prototype, kept out of PR #25.

Idea

Every focus-area inflection point is a specific, falsifiable, dated prediction. That's exactly what prediction markets price. This prototype maps each opportunity-space inflection point to the closest live market on Polymarket / Kalshi and shows the crowd's current probability as a running scoreboard for our bets — and, where no market exists, treats the gap itself as a signal of how early/contrarian the bet is.

What's here

• src/data/prediction-markets.json — the mapping (area → opportunity space → inflection point → market), tagged direct / proxy / gap
• src/lib/predictionMarkets.ts — public Polymarket Gamma API fetch (no auth), hourly ISR, threshold-aware pick for multi-line events (e.g. Neuralink valuation)
• src/app/signals/page.tsx — server-rendered /signals card grid with live odds

Not linked in nav; purely a demo route.

Matches found (live)

Inflection point	Market (proxy)	Crowd
Open compute reaches frontier	Open-weights model best by Dec 31	~13%
Embodied-AI data maturity	Tesla consumer Optimus by Dec 31	~13%
Portable identity at scale	30M+ humans on World by Dec 31	~10%
FDA-cleared BCI momentum	Neuralink $75B valuation by Dec 31	~51%
Agent-to-agent economies	no market yet	gap
Content provenance baseline	no clean market (EU AI Act Art. 50?)	gap
Crypto-native governance / DePIN climate	no liquid market	gap

Ways to weave it in (options, not decisions)

1. /signals standalone page (this PR) — lightest touch.
2. Inline badge on each opportunity-space / dependency-graph card ("crowd: 13%") next to the inflection point.
3. Impact-dashboard tile — a "market view" row alongside the existing FA2 stats.
4. Seed the gaps — where no market exists, propose one (Polymarket/Kalshi) so our contrarian bets become publicly trackable.

Screenshots

Caveats: odds are proxies, not exact restatements; multi-threshold events are matched heuristically; nothing here endorses gambling.

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[lksbrssr]

Superseded by #45. The inflection-points × prediction-markets idea now lives integrated into the /impact dashboard (crowd-forecast read on the field axis), spans both Polymarket and Kalshi via a typed market-signals.ts, and now also surfaces market volume (money at stake). Closing this standalone /signals prototype to avoid maintaining two divergent mappings. If we still want a dedicated scoreboard view, we'll build it on top of #45's shared lib.