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docs(programme): tested multinomial bridge and two candidate statements (from MetaManifold-WebUI #22) - #86
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…te statements From the work on JoshuaJewell/MetaManifold-WebUI#22. Line 2 gains a tested bridge between two implementations of one statistical model (the fork's Julia multinomial and MGLM), pinned to MetaManifold-WebUI 5a89914. Q-2.6 states S-MN (the closed form of the two-group multinomial logit and its variance) and S-DM (the Dirichlet-multinomial log-ratio contrast at the no-overdispersion boundary), both tested-only and outside the admission rule until proved. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_0136P7ZoFbrtmpRbKPqk25ok
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…led counts An independent review of the MetaManifold-WebUI work found that the Dirichlet-multinomial contrast equals the multinomial one only when both groups lack overdispersion. With one group overdispersed, a second simulation gives contrasts up to 0.13 away and standard errors 6 to 7 times larger. S-MN now states that its four pooled counts are positive. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_0136P7ZoFbrtmpRbKPqk25ok
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Summary
This records what the MN/DM regression work for JoshuaJewell/MetaManifold-WebUI#22 taught about mathematics no single system owns. It is a documentation change to
docs/proposals/mathesis-research-programme.adoconly. It asserts no proof and no grade.Changes
hyperpolymath/MetaManifold-WebUIat5a89914. Its status istested-only. It is not abridges.jsonlrecord, because that registry takes prover endpoints only.tested-only.1/S_Aj + 1/S_Ar + 1/S_Bj + 1/S_Br.docs/theory/README.adocuntil it is proved in Agda and re-proved in Rocq and Lean.RSR Quality Checklist
Required
just testor equivalent). See Testing for the one environment failure.just fmtor equivalent). No code changed.unsafeblocks without// SAFETY:commentsbelieve_me,unsafeCoerce,Obj.magic,Admitted,sorry).envfiles includedAs Applicable
*_chora.deed)(status)/(maturity)updated (if project state changed). Not applicable.docs/status/ROADMAP.adocupdated (if milestones or next actions changed). Not applicable: no milestone changes.Testing
justis not installed in the session, so each recipe's commands ran directly:catalogue-check: no diff.census-test: all pass.atlas-check:PASS: generated atlas matches census.applied-check:PASS.bun test tests/atlas/census-atlas.test.mjs tests/registry/: 26 pass, 1 fail. The failure istests/registry/claims-registry.test.mjs, which needsMATHESIS_STANDARDS(a checkout ofmetadatastician/standards). It fails the same way ond5dcfd6without this change.registry-check(needsMATHESIS_STANDARDS),site-check(needs asciidoctor; the site build does not readdocs/proposals/), andcheck-proofs(needs the pinned Guix shell). No proof file changed.Generated by Claude Code