Similoluwa Abe · MSc Finance & Economics, Warwick Business School · October 2026
I valued Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B.CO) using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model because of my curiosity to see the numbers behind GLP-1s.
| Base-case fair value | DKK 543 per share |
| Share price (12/10/2026) | DKK 256.70 |
| Implied upside | +112% |
| If margins fall to 30% | DKK 395 (still +54%) |
| Margin the share price implies | ~21% (vs 41% in 2025) |
| Scenario range | DKK 305 (bear) to DKK 633 (bull) |
Working backwards, today's share price only holds if Novo Nordisk's operating margin falls to about 21%, from 41% last year. I think the market is being overly cautious, treating GLP-1 drugs as an overinflated boom and underestimating the profits Novo Nordisk can continue to make.
- Collected FY2025 financials for Novo Nordisk from Yahoo Finance and turned them into model inputs.
- Built a 5-year forecast of free cash flow, using Novo Nordisk's 2026 guidance as a starting point.
- Estimated a discount rate (WACC) of 5.9%. Rather than use Yahoo's beta of 0.38, I took the average beta of comparable pharmaceutical companies (Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca and Pfizer) and applied the Bloomberg adjustment, giving a beta of 0.54.
- Tested bull, bear, and lower-margin scenarios, plus a sensitivity table for the discount rate and long-term growth.
- Worked out the margin the current share price implies (a reverse DCF).
| File | What it is |
|---|---|
novonordisk_NOVO-B.CO_Valuation.pdf |
My full write-up: assumptions, scenarios, risks, and conclusion |
examples/novonordisk_NOVO-B.CO.json |
My inputs for Novo Nordisk |
dcf/ |
The Python model that runs the calculations |
python -m dcf examples/novonordisk_NOVO-B.CO.jsonThis prints the forecast, the valuation and the sensitivity table. To value another company, copy the JSON file and change the numbers.
The Python code was built with the help of an AI assistant (Claude). The data collection, assumptions, analysis, and conclusions are my own. This is a personal educational project, not investment advice.