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Certify Microcosm UK national cut a133f37a for the Autumn Budget #715

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d730443
Document Budget same-line national recut exception
MaxGhenis Oct 23, 2026
58e0536
Prepare portable certifier with twelve rehearsal patches
MaxGhenis Oct 23, 2026
36d7969
Add guarded same-line UK two-by-two attribution tooling
MaxGhenis Oct 23, 2026
bd701bd
Stage sequential guarded national certification evidence runner
MaxGhenis Oct 23, 2026
c1dfd0d
Record guarded heavy-phase handoff and portable branch bundle
MaxGhenis Oct 23, 2026
2175a6f
Start the heavy phase when Fleet ops releases the host
MaxGhenis Oct 23, 2026
b59f6c5
Merge #704's cleaned head; keep the preparation tooling out of the PR
MaxGhenis Oct 23, 2026
7bade50
Certify Microcosm UK cut microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T07503…
MaxGhenis Oct 24, 2026
e02d41b
Make the UK region tests follow the bundle's area routing
MaxGhenis Oct 24, 2026
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1 change: 1 addition & 0 deletions ...d/certify-uk-microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a.changed.md
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Certify the UK populace data release `microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a` (microcosm_uk_2024_25, policyengine-uk 2.147.2) into the PolicyEngine bundle manifest.
30 changes: 30 additions & 0 deletions docs/engineering/skills/data-certification.md
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Expand Up @@ -245,6 +245,36 @@ differencing.
withholds a standard reform's figures, so the gate cannot recompute that
reform's verdict. Accepted by María Juaristi in #685.

### Same-line re-cut exception

The Budget coordinator's **23 October 2026 decision under d1682 and d1344**
permits a same-line re-cut exception for the Budget week: the data must stay on
the same producer line, and the model must be pinned to the cut's build-time
version. For Saturday's national cut
`microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a`, that is
`policyengine-uk==2.147.2` (Microcosm build `829c1bc26`, on main via
[microcosm#1338](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/pull/1338)).
Certify national-only with `--drop-regional-release`, stacked on
policyengine.py#704 (`budget-local-data-manifest`, `da2ae8fb` or a reviewed later
head). Constituency and local-authority outputs are absent until Monday's cut;
María Juaristi (`juaristi22`) can override this routing decision.

The exception's evidence package is: all release-cut gates; the UC floor;
snapshots; the #574 reform contract and Budget-inputs gates on the exact cut,
with the coverage used by #685; the strict check; and a same-line 2×2
attribution against the previously certified `6cba5d71` national cut on pe-uk
2.132.6. For FY2026-27 through FY2030-31, compare both data cuts under both
model versions, separating model effects on fixed data from data effects on a
fixed model. Map moves above the aggregate-impact report's thresholds to
pe-uk PRs or Microcosm changes, label unmapped moves **unattributed**, and list
limitations. Record incompatible cells as **not computable** with their error
and use the computable cells. Record scorecard replay as **unavailable** until
the Microcosm replay fix lands; unavailable is not a pass.

This scoped decision does not inherit #685's cross-data-line comparison
exception or accept a new UC-floor gap, missing input or failed gate. Any such
acceptance needs an explicit decision and evidence in the certification PR.

## Release runbooks

Concrete, fill-in-the-id runbooks that replay a specific certification live
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6 changes: 3 additions & 3 deletions pyproject.toml
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Expand Up @@ -42,12 +42,12 @@ graph = [
models = [
"policyengine-core==3.33.3",
"policyengine-us==2.2.1",
"policyengine-uk==2.132.6",
"policyengine-uk==2.147.2",
"spm-calculator==1.0.0",
]
uk = [
"policyengine-core==3.33.3",
"policyengine-uk==2.132.6",
"policyengine-uk==2.147.2",
]
us = [
"policyengine-core==3.33.3",
Expand All @@ -72,7 +72,7 @@ dev = [
"rfc8785>=0.1.4",
"policyengine-core==3.33.3",
"policyengine-us==2.2.1",
"policyengine-uk==2.132.6",
"policyengine-uk==2.147.2",
"spm-calculator==1.0.0",
]

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85 changes: 35 additions & 50 deletions src/policyengine/data/bundle/manifest.json
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Expand Up @@ -16,31 +16,32 @@
},
"data_releases": {
"uk": {
"build_id": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71",
"build_id": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a",
"bundle_id": "uk-6.10.1",
"certification": {
"built_with_model_version": "2.132.6",
"built_with_model_version": "2.147.2",
"certified_by": "policyengine.py bundle certification",
"certified_for_model_version": "2.132.6",
"certified_for_core_version": "3.33.3",
"certified_for_model_version": "2.147.2",
"compatibility_basis": "built_with_model_package",
"core_binding": "bundle_pin",
"data_build_id": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71"
"core_binding": "certified",
"data_build_id": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a"
},
"certified_data_artifact": {
"build_id": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71",
"build_id": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a",
"data_package": {
"name": "microcosm-data",
"version": "0.1.0"
},
"dataset": "microcosm_uk_2024_25",
"sha256": "810ba980005a8b907cb51464279fa5e0125464b7af9a4871b7f6744c30951ece",
"uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/microcosm_uk_2024_25.h5@microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71"
"sha256": "64f83900ca3a1242fb017585234844ce89f743d32e41cd2b6558057777f914aa",
"uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/microcosm_uk_2024_25.h5@microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a"
},
"country_id": "uk",
"data_package": {
"name": "microcosm-data",
"release_manifest_path": "releases/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national/release_manifest.json",
"release_manifest_revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71",
"release_manifest_revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a",
"repo_id": "policyengine/populace-uk-private",
"repo_type": "dataset",
"version": "0.1.0"
Expand All @@ -50,86 +51,70 @@
"calibration_diagnostics": {
"path": "releases/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national/calibration_diagnostics.json",
"repo_id": "policyengine/populace-uk-private",
"revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71",
"sha256": "34978e2bfde3f2641769c9c3a8f60455c59ecae5a50524b359d74388d7edc888"
"revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a",
"sha256": "0c975ad04a2d1c0207c3be480d68f645c3a1b24f786c3eef76d6e984dfea0637"
},
"microcosm_uk_2024_25": {
"path": "microcosm_uk_2024_25.h5",
"repo_id": "policyengine/populace-uk-private",
"revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71",
"sha256": "810ba980005a8b907cb51464279fa5e0125464b7af9a4871b7f6744c30951ece"
"revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a",
"sha256": "64f83900ca3a1242fb017585234844ce89f743d32e41cd2b6558057777f914aa"
},
"microcosm_uk_2024_25_calibration": {
"path": "microcosm_uk_2024_25_calibration.npz",
"repo_id": "policyengine/populace-uk-private",
"revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71",
"sha256": "104a8253bf1aebc91147c9bbb40e2603d1025317ba8c6b991383d5e4d91852c2"
},
"microcosm_uk_2024_25_dense": {
"path": "microcosm_uk_2024_25_dense.h5",
"repo_id": "policyengine/populace-uk-private",
"repo_type": "dataset",
"revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-dense-20261019T000432Z-ee5c2dbe",
"sha256": "8e10e130d0260e0b52e2e29902f0502ebdff76a14a3e57d2c876bf4cd8db5872"
"revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a",
"sha256": "074872730ad5678cdb4e483d0141ece912be65d6bc032d01bf756f2c3868f2a7"
},
"release_certification": {
"path": "releases/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national/release_certification.json",
"repo_id": "policyengine/populace-uk-private",
"revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71",
"sha256": "6a68cc93595fc5a7ad451d75a902523c25659de27014f50431dd5e19af5bd959"
"revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a",
"sha256": "633661c40492645236c0d286576c6206d1fe87609ac7ce90234f625397b9260c"
},
"release_cut_gates": {
"path": "releases/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national/release_cut_gates.json",
"repo_id": "policyengine/populace-uk-private",
"revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71",
"sha256": "c91c1364d9c3be98493039d4e1dd8c2256881a434c1f124dd2ed0701bfaf7751"
"revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a",
"sha256": "19f9b8bde4cafcfd179607541c5c8fa4247c97858a4ace7a1838bbacd223bc17"
},
"score_vs_enhanced_frs": {
"path": "releases/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national/score_vs_enhanced_frs.json",
"repo_id": "policyengine/populace-uk-private",
"revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71",
"sha256": "ba8a675f36e7c836bf5521e5933e21bb689442734b7340e05cabd3e0cc55323d"
"revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a",
"sha256": "cb4dcde88bf016e0646cdc46a9ab9adf9973c77b16a0cb9e1a25987d57b212ab"
},
"spine_gates": {
"path": "releases/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national/spine_gates.json",
"repo_id": "policyengine/populace-uk-private",
"revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71",
"sha256": "6dbba976dd1304c07da531382cecb11c9cb69512de0ee65126b71f032a0f37d6"
"revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a",
"sha256": "7959f2a19b6535e67f8d9cb2c37ee68f027892ca10d9d8422be18a8261798f34"
},
"terminal_gates": {
"path": "releases/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national/terminal_gates.json",
"repo_id": "policyengine/populace-uk-private",
"revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71",
"sha256": "e29439d5ce0ea098d32579284ac06f26f086feba2fb8d12d1e88ac9a54840808"
"revision": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a",
"sha256": "dac50ba94464ca4e2b494fd8ffcd04e47da6dd6e49e9f53bdb7384de7983097f"
}
},
"default_dataset": "microcosm_uk_2024_25",
"default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/microcosm_uk_2024_25.h5@microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71",
"default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/microcosm_uk_2024_25.h5@microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a",
"model_package": {
"name": "policyengine-uk",
"sha256": "cc54025f2a3bc54be4f8d024d1e6f11ed29fed75ca513b214f2d2963c5bf4354",
"version": "2.132.6",
"wheel_url": "https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/11/f2/c003cd7a95cb499737a5b8af0d619ba4e759c8bc7e55a2bb5c7efa46abd1/policyengine_uk-2.132.6-py3-none-any.whl"
"sha256": "4b48ab1008b00610abc38192927ac9d4bb22037b6bbd9578926c2899e639f972",
"version": "2.147.2",
"wheel_url": "https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/96/dd/54ddc9226756877e630a3f9fcda4dbf2ae142635e96a564cab3a062ced62/policyengine_uk-2.147.2-py3-none-any.whl"
},
"policyengine_version": "6.10.1",
"region_datasets": {
"constituency": {
"path_template": "microcosm_uk_2024_25_dense.h5"
},
"local_authority": {
"path_template": "microcosm_uk_2024_25_dense.h5"
},
"national": {
"path_template": "microcosm_uk_2024_25.h5"
}
},
"regional_release_kind": "local_area",
"regional_release_manifest_uri": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/policyengine/populace-uk-private/resolve/microcosm-uk-2024-25-dense-20261019T000432Z-ee5c2dbe/releases/microcosm-uk-2024-25-dense/release_manifest.json",
"regional_source_manifest_uri": "hf://dataset/policyengine/populace-uk-private@microcosm-uk-2024-25-dense-20261019T000432Z-ee5c2dbe/releases/microcosm-uk-2024-25-dense/release_manifest.json",
"release_manifest_uri": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/policyengine/populace-uk-private/resolve/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71/releases/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national/release_manifest.json",
"release_manifest_uri": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/policyengine/populace-uk-private/resolve/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a/releases/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national/release_manifest.json",
"schema_version": 1,
"source_manifest_uri": "hf://dataset/policyengine/populace-uk-private@microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71/releases/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national/release_manifest.json",
"version": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71"
"source_manifest_uri": "hf://dataset/policyengine/populace-uk-private@microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a/releases/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national/release_manifest.json",
"version": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a"
},
"us": {
"build_id": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915",
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -363,10 +348,10 @@
"policyengine-uk": {
"country": "uk",
"import_name": "policyengine_uk",
"install_requirement": "policyengine-uk==2.132.6",
"install_requirement": "policyengine-uk==2.147.2",
"name": "policyengine-uk",
"role": "country_model",
"version": "2.132.6"
"version": "2.147.2"
},
"policyengine-us": {
"country": "us",
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33 changes: 17 additions & 16 deletions src/policyengine/data/bundle/uk.trace.tro.jsonld
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Expand Up @@ -17,7 +17,7 @@
"schema:name": "PolicyEngine",
"schema:url": "https://policyengine.org"
},
"schema:dateCreated": "2026-10-19T10:17:15.545356+00:00",
"schema:dateCreated": "2026-10-23T09:57:14.344348+00:00",
"schema:description": "TRACE TRO for certified runtime bundle uk-6.10.1 covering the bundle manifest, the certified dataset artifact, the country model wheel, and the country data release manifest when it is available.",
"schema:name": "policyengine uk certified bundle TRO",
"trov:createdWith": {
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -45,23 +45,23 @@
"trov:hasArtifact": {
"@id": "composition/1/artifact/data_release_manifest"
},
"trov:hasLocation": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/policyengine/populace-uk-private/resolve/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71/releases/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national/release_manifest.json"
"trov:hasLocation": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/policyengine/populace-uk-private/resolve/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a/releases/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national/release_manifest.json"
},
{
"@id": "arrangement/1/location/dataset",
"@type": "trov:ArtifactLocation",
"trov:hasArtifact": {
"@id": "composition/1/artifact/dataset"
},
"trov:hasLocation": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/policyengine/populace-uk-private/resolve/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71/microcosm_uk_2024_25.h5"
"trov:hasLocation": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/policyengine/populace-uk-private/resolve/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a/microcosm_uk_2024_25.h5"
},
{
"@id": "arrangement/1/location/model_wheel",
"@type": "trov:ArtifactLocation",
"trov:hasArtifact": {
"@id": "composition/1/artifact/model_wheel"
},
"trov:hasLocation": "https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/11/f2/c003cd7a95cb499737a5b8af0d619ba4e759c8bc7e55a2bb5c7efa46abd1/policyengine_uk-2.132.6-py3-none-any.whl"
"trov:hasLocation": "https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/96/dd/54ddc9226756877e630a3f9fcda4dbf2ae142635e96a564cab3a062ced62/policyengine_uk-2.147.2-py3-none-any.whl"
}
]
}
Expand All @@ -75,51 +75,52 @@
"@type": "trov:ResearchArtifact",
"schema:name": "policyengine.py bundle manifest for uk",
"trov:mimeType": "application/json",
"trov:sha256": "095203eb2b45580c7afae0a3c89201f98a4426e4a1e76719cfdc28615ed9e5ca"
"trov:sha256": "d28213451af6d538a7c742b8ad5182e00b25e784ab68638e8428adc400012f01"
},
{
"@id": "composition/1/artifact/data_release_manifest",
"@type": "trov:ResearchArtifact",
"schema:name": "microcosm-data release manifest 0.1.0",
"trov:mimeType": "application/json",
"trov:sha256": "49f9fa820db2e6544ff5cdceeb2d868a504843a6a1c1c06b37188621e700066f"
"trov:sha256": "63089003fa140b729e9daf24fb430e926f7cb5bd142e3cf6bfa106115aae6aa2"
},
{
"@id": "composition/1/artifact/dataset",
"@type": "trov:ResearchArtifact",
"schema:name": "microcosm_uk_2024_25",
"trov:mimeType": "application/x-hdf5",
"trov:sha256": "810ba980005a8b907cb51464279fa5e0125464b7af9a4871b7f6744c30951ece"
"trov:sha256": "64f83900ca3a1242fb017585234844ce89f743d32e41cd2b6558057777f914aa"
},
{
"@id": "composition/1/artifact/model_wheel",
"@type": "trov:ResearchArtifact",
"schema:name": "policyengine-uk==2.132.6 wheel",
"schema:name": "policyengine-uk==2.147.2 wheel",
"trov:mimeType": "application/zip",
"trov:sha256": "cc54025f2a3bc54be4f8d024d1e6f11ed29fed75ca513b214f2d2963c5bf4354"
"trov:sha256": "4b48ab1008b00610abc38192927ac9d4bb22037b6bbd9578926c2899e639f972"
}
],
"trov:hasFingerprint": {
"@id": "composition/1/fingerprint",
"@type": "trov:CompositionFingerprint",
"trov:sha256": "0ade76b548f319f98c7ce9426be439bd7c9897fa78d18fe574aab607528282cb"
"trov:sha256": "f164ec51bf8a7a347b437ecf9c461591b6f35a4c5050135352cfc96d2c2f51b8"
}
},
"trov:hasPerformance": {
"@id": "trp/1",
"@type": "trov:TransparentResearchPerformance",
"pe:builtWithModelVersion": "2.132.6",
"pe:builtWithModelVersion": "2.147.2",
"pe:certifiedBy": "policyengine.py bundle certification",
"pe:certifiedForModelVersion": "2.132.6",
"pe:certifiedForCoreVersion": "3.33.3",
"pe:certifiedForModelVersion": "2.147.2",
"pe:compatibilityBasis": "built_with_model_package",
"pe:coreBinding": "bundle_pin",
"pe:dataBuildId": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71",
"pe:coreBinding": "certified",
"pe:dataBuildId": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a",
"pe:emittedIn": "repository-bundle",
"rdfs:comment": "Certification of build microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71 for policyengine-uk 2.132.6.",
"rdfs:comment": "Certification of build microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a for policyengine-uk 2.147.2.",
"trov:accessedArrangement": {
"@id": "arrangement/1"
},
"trov:startedAtTime": "2026-10-19T10:17:15.545356+00:00",
"trov:startedAtTime": "2026-10-23T09:57:14.344348+00:00",
"trov:wasConductedBy": {
"@id": "trs"
}
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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions src/policyengine/data/bundle/us.trace.tro.jsonld
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -74,7 +74,7 @@
"@type": "trov:ResearchArtifact",
"schema:name": "policyengine.py bundle manifest for us",
"trov:mimeType": "application/json",
"trov:sha256": "095203eb2b45580c7afae0a3c89201f98a4426e4a1e76719cfdc28615ed9e5ca"
"trov:sha256": "d28213451af6d538a7c742b8ad5182e00b25e784ab68638e8428adc400012f01"
},
{
"@id": "composition/1/artifact/data_release_manifest",
Expand All @@ -101,7 +101,7 @@
"trov:hasFingerprint": {
"@id": "composition/1/fingerprint",
"@type": "trov:CompositionFingerprint",
"trov:sha256": "85adc682b3d9684102287c08b7f06bd101b0e00fb5dd57692bb79956669371b4"
"trov:sha256": "37c146a215f35786a31a7f88d09817941507baf867c92b33fc2ff99b2b14c685"
}
},
"trov:hasPerformance": {
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