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Require policyengine-core 3.34.9 - #2897

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MaxGhenis wants to merge 4 commits into
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core-3349-neutralised-inputs
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MaxGhenis wants to merge 4 commits into
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core-3349-neutralised-inputs

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@MaxGhenis

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Nov 7, 2026 •

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axiom: n/a: dependency update, no policy rule change

What changes

policyengine-uk now requires policyengine-core 3.34.9, and uv.lock pins the release from PyPI.

In policyengine-core 3.34.8 (policyengine-core#652), Simulation.apply_reform binds each existing holder to the reformed system. In 3.34.9, policyengine-core#653 also updates a holder's definition whenever a simulation looks the holder up. With both changes, a holder takes the neutralised definition once a reform neutralises its variable. Holder.set_input then applies the rule that TaxBenefitSystem.neutralize_variable documents: setting an input for a neutralised variable has no effect except a warning. Up to 3.34.1, a holder that core created before the neutralisation kept the old definition and stored such an input.

test_neutralized_supplied_gains_report_default_without_unused_warning relied on the old behaviour. Its situation supplies £120,000 of capital gains for 2026, and on the neutralize_variable route the test neutralises capital_gains_before_response, sets £555 and restores the variable. With core 3.34.8, a CI run on #2265 read £120,000 where the test expected £555, so the test now expects £120,000 on that route. The synthetic_abolition route keeps £555: the abolition parameter leaves the variable's definition in place, and core stores the input.

The same run failed both routes of test_a_reform_names_nothing_it_stores_on_a_clone_or_branch, because apply_reform replaced input_variables with a copy after every reform. 3.34.9 replaces the list only when a reform drops a name, so that test needs no change.

#2265 needs 3.34.9 for its subsample restoration tests and lands after this pull request.

Tests

At 58b342e5, with core 3.34.9 from PyPI, the full suite passed. The aggregate impact check found no change in any year in tax receipts, poverty, inequality or any household's net income.

Core's release commit changes only the version and the changelog, and the 3.34.9 wheel's 194 package files match #653's head (14837f78) byte for byte. The release's dependencies match 3.34.1's, so no other locked package moves.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

… test

From policyengine-core 3.34.8, applying a reform that neutralises a variable
gives the variable's existing holder the neutralised definition.
Holder.set_input then applies the rule that
TaxBenefitSystem.neutralize_variable documents: setting an input for a
neutralised variable has no effect except a warning. Up to 3.34.1, a holder
that core created before the neutralisation kept the old definition and
stored such an input. On the neutralize_variable route,
test_neutralized_supplied_gains_report_default_without_unused_warning set 555
after the neutralising reform and read it back after the restoring reform.
Core now drops that 555, so the test expects the situation's 120,000.

Until core publishes 3.34.9, uv.lock installs core from #653's head
(14837f78), so CI tests that fix before its release. Core's dependencies at
14837f78 match 3.34.1's, so no other locked package moves.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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Review status: COMPLETE — no findings or material evidence gaps

Reviewed head: 428d8ce5ac7ee25c489b993d8bf6f482ab84bfd4.

The current draft intentionally tests Core commit 14837f784b52d731101dd2e322c7727895d08753, whose package metadata is 3.34.8. The Git pin agrees between pyproject.toml and uv.lock. I verified the complete upstream archive and executed that exact source in an isolated overlay: all 163 installed Core Python files matched the archive and all 18 checked dependency versions matched the lock.

The changed expectation agrees with the documented holder contract: writing an input while its variable is neutralised is ignored, so restoration retains the supplied £120,000. Synthetic abolition leaves the definition intact and retains the £555 write. The holder rebinding and input-list identity changes are supported by the upstream source and the cited historical failures.

156 targeted tests passed (140 Python and 16 YAML), followed by two explicit-2026 households across six contexts each. Final capital-gains tax and household net income return to their exact baselines after restoration; restore-and-write and synthetic-abolition controls also pass. No private dataset or population run was performed.

This is a COMMENT, with approval withheld while the PR remains a draft and applicable current-head CI is incomplete. The planned transition to a published registry release, a Core floor of at least 3.34.9, removal of the Git override, and validation of the resulting head must be checked before approval. The current declared floor is still >=3.33.0; this review does not certify that the future release transition has happened. axiom: n/a is appropriate for this dependency change.

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github-actions Bot commented Nov 7, 2026 •

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base b8b383cde7 against head db2b1d73c1, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • Base and head ran on different runtimes, so some changes may come from dependencies: policyengine-core==3.34.1 -> policyengine-core==3.34.9
  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles; standard reform costings (change in gov_balance); standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,888,684 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,777,260 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,727,917 in total
Counted-once check

The check raised each of 92 components by £1 per unit in 2026-27 and read every head of its totals household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A response that is not finite breaks every rule. The check measures a head that breaks a rule twice more: once holding every other head at its baseline value, and once holding every other head at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. The head fails where either measurement still shows the response. The check cannot hold a head at a value that is not finite. In each unit where another head is not finite after the first £1, it holds that head at its baseline value, and the second measurement judges no household the unit belongs to. There a head fails wherever it first broke a rule, or wherever the check could not confirm whether its response contains the component. 0 failed and the check skipped 0.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main b8b383cde7 uk 2.176.3 (files ac13f82082c7), core 3.34.1, py 3.13.18 aarch64 ea9029c99333 3bcfb3473960 2562.81s
head #2897 merged into main db2b1d73c1 uk 2.176.3 (files ac13f82082c7), core 3.34.9, py 3.13.18 aarch64 e208d24eae76 3bcfb3473960 2547.49s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Runtime differences:

  • policyengine-core==3.34.1 -> policyengine-core==3.34.9
Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Income tax £294.46bn £315.23bn £335.82bn £351.28bn £366.96bn £385.36bn £399.99bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £51.70bn £54.14bn £56.13bn £57.73bn £59.76bn £61.64bn £63.51bn
National Insurance (employer) £148.71bn £155.37bn £160.88bn £165.09bn £172.06bn £177.36bn £182.57bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.60bn £13.15bn £13.60bn £14.11bn £14.67bn £15.24bn £15.80bn
Student loan repayments £7.82bn £8.13bn £8.39bn £8.58bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.29bn
VAT excluding private school fees £249.37bn £256.87bn £266.33bn £272.70bn £278.97bn £285.24bn £291.59bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £1.95bn £2.01bn £2.09bn £2.14bn £2.20bn £2.26bn £2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.71bn £24.13bn £26.00bn £26.83bn £26.51bn £25.78bn £24.63bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.26bn £4.40bn £4.41bn £4.42bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.45bn
Council tax £49.21bn £52.16bn £54.89bn £57.95bn £61.16bn £64.47bn £67.91bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.63bn £0.66bn £0.69bn £0.72bn
Business rates £34.68bn £36.20bn £38.00bn £39.46bn £42.27bn £43.25bn £44.29bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.88bn £7.32bn £7.66bn £8.06bn £8.47bn £8.91bn £9.35bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.72bn £4.57bn £5.29bn £6.03bn £6.37bn £6.92bn £7.45bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.07bn £0.08bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.38bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
State Pension £121.68bn £125.92bn £126.72bn £129.48bn £132.98bn £136.65bn £140.41bn
Pension Credit £6.21bn £6.46bn £6.68bn £6.82bn £6.89bn £7.07bn £7.22bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.86bn £1.85bn £1.79bn £1.77bn £1.78bn £1.78bn £1.78bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.70bn £81.81bn £84.29bn £86.34bn £87.51bn £89.06bn £89.70bn
Housing Benefit £8.57bn £8.52bn £8.85bn £9.06bn £9.29bn £9.57bn £9.84bn
Council Tax Reduction £2.19bn £2.32bn £2.44bn £2.58bn £2.72bn £2.87bn £3.02bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.20bn £5.37bn £5.56bn £5.69bn £5.82bn £5.95bn £6.09bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn
Income Support £0.11bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £26.95bn £28.03bn £29.05bn £30.09bn £30.75bn £31.51bn £32.21bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.49bn £7.79bn £8.07bn £8.36bn £8.55bn £8.76bn £8.95bn
Attendance Allowance £8.68bn £9.03bn £9.36bn £9.69bn £9.90bn £10.15bn £10.38bn
Carer's Allowance £4.48bn £4.66bn £4.83bn £5.00bn £5.11bn £5.27bn £5.42bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.58bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.68bn £0.69bn £0.71bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.19bn £16.82bn £17.39bn £18.00bn £18.39bn £18.84bn £19.25bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.49bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.30bn £3.41bn £3.54bn £3.62bn £3.70bn £3.78bn £3.87bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.12bn £1.16bn £1.20bn £1.23bn £1.26bn £1.29bn £1.32bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.71bn £0.73bn £0.75bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.99bn £3.50bn £3.59bn £3.71bn £3.78bn £3.86bn £3.93bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.06bn £2.22bn £2.29bn £2.37bn £2.43bn £2.48bn £2.53bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Childcare Offer for Wales £0.26bn £0.28bn £0.28bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £203.89bn £204.30bn £204.56bn £204.91bn £205.34bn £205.85bn £206.35bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.05bn £25.10bn £25.14bn £25.18bn £25.23bn £25.30bn £25.36bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Household Energy Payment £0.00bn £2.11bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
State Pension 11,264k 11,145k 10,819k 10,700k 10,723k 10,750k 10,776k
Pension Credit 1,489k 1,484k 1,476k 1,454k 1,452k 1,457k 1,466k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,844k 7,783k 7,473k 7,375k 7,391k 7,409k 7,427k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 803k 802k 800k 797k 799k 801k 802k
Universal Credit 6,343k 6,419k 6,408k 6,369k 6,364k 6,343k 6,295k
Housing Benefit 1,249k 1,182k 1,181k 1,165k 1,164k 1,166k 1,168k
Council Tax Reduction 3,326k 3,344k 3,351k 3,364k 3,376k 3,388k 3,395k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 719k 720k 721k 722k 724k 726k 728k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,567k 3,575k 3,579k 3,585k 3,593k 3,602k 3,611k
Disability Living Allowance 1,291k 1,294k 1,296k 1,298k 1,300k 1,304k 1,307k
Attendance Allowance 1,695k 1,698k 1,700k 1,703k 1,707k 1,711k 1,715k
Carer's Allowance 1,034k 1,037k 1,038k 1,040k 1,042k 1,060k 1,062k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 137k 137k 138k 138k 138k 139k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 93k 93k 94k 94k 94k 94k 94k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,123k 8,120k 8,120k 8,130k 8,145k 8,161k 8,178k
Scottish Child Payment 351k 352k 352k 353k 350k 348k 337k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 200k 200k 201k 201k 201k 202k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 333k 333k 334k 334k 335k 336k 337k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 181k 182k 182k 182k 182k 183k 183k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,043k 1,027k 1,014k 1,009k 1,011k 1,009k 993k
Extended childcare entitlement 795k 800k 796k 797k 798k 798k 792k
Universal childcare entitlement 1,071k 1,072k 1,072k 1,073k 1,076k 1,079k 1,074k
Targeted childcare entitlement 165k 156k 154k 154k 155k 155k 150k
Childcare Offer for Wales 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 99k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 12k 12k 12k 12k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Household Energy Payment 0k 21,065k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £892.00bn £934.66bn £980.50bn £1,015.93bn £1,054.24bn £1,091.56bn £1,124.89bn
Government spending £529.29bn † £545.32bn † £550.39bn † £559.10bn † £566.74bn † £575.45bn † £583.06bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £362.71bn † £389.34bn † £430.11bn † £456.82bn † £487.50bn † £516.10bn † £541.83bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £892.00bn £934.66bn £980.50bn £1,015.93bn £1,054.24bn £1,091.56bn £1,124.89bn
household_tax £491.97bn £520.41bn £551.21bn £576.00bn £601.00bn £626.69bn £648.42bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £484.15bn £512.28bn £542.82bn £566.95bn £591.72bn £617.16bn £638.61bn
gov_spending £529.29bn † £545.32bn † £550.39bn † £559.10bn † £566.74bn † £575.45bn † £583.06bn †
household_benefits £529.29bn † £545.32bn † £550.39bn † £559.10bn † £566.74bn † £575.45bn † £583.06bn †
gov_balance £362.71bn † £389.34bn † £430.11bn † £456.82bn † £487.50bn † £516.10bn † £541.83bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,637.96bn £1,702.77bn £1,757.35bn £1,806.41bn £1,855.97bn £1,912.43bn £1,970.44bn
Household net income £1,636.60bn † £1,687.48bn † £1,715.08bn † £1,747.09bn † £1,778.23bn † £1,816.52bn † £1,859.15bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,449.48bn £1,499.49bn £1,530.49bn £1,564.77bn £1,597.43bn £1,635.10bn £1,676.08bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,245k 69,383k 69,473k 69,592k 69,738k 69,912k 70,080k
Benefit units 35,110k 35,181k 35,226k 35,286k 35,360k 35,449k 35,534k
Households 31,046k 31,108k 31,149k 31,201k 31,267k 31,345k 31,420k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.2% 15.4% 16.3% 16.2% 16.4% 16.4% 16.5%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.6% 21.9% 23.1% 22.7% 22.9% 23.0% 23.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.0% 13.7% 14.6% 14.6% 14.7% 14.7% 14.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.4% 14.0% 13.9% 14.0% 14.0% 13.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.5% 21.0% 22.0% 22.5% 22.8% 23.0% 23.4%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.1% 31.2% 32.1% 32.4% 32.8% 33.2% 34.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.8% 21.5% 21.8% 22.0% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.4% 13.2% 13.2% 13.3% 13.4% 13.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.9% 15.9% 16.3% 16.2% 16.3% 16.2% 16.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 25.8% 22.6% 23.1% 22.7% 22.8% 22.6% 23.2%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.4% 14.0% 14.6% 14.6% 14.7% 14.6% 14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 14.5% 14.1% 14.0% 13.8% 13.8% 13.9% 13.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.4% 20.9% 21.2% 21.3% 21.3% 21.5% 21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 32.9% 31.0% 31.1% 31.0% 31.1% 31.2% 31.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.7% 20.2% 20.4% 20.5% 20.6% 20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.5% 12.4% 12.2% 11.8% 11.7% 11.8% 12.1%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,251k 10,708k 11,337k 11,302k 11,412k 11,452k 11,588k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,677k 3,272k 3,456k 3,407k 3,443k 3,465k 3,511k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,950k 5,860k 6,279k 6,333k 6,390k 6,402k 6,493k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,624k 1,576k 1,602k 1,562k 1,579k 1,585k 1,584k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,871k 14,567k 15,265k 15,691k 15,911k 16,096k 16,374k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,941k 4,671k 4,815k 4,873k 4,932k 5,015k 5,146k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,426k 8,436k 8,945k 9,325k 9,475k 9,560k 9,684k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,504k 1,460k 1,505k 1,493k 1,505k 1,520k 1,545k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,698k 11,036k 11,323k 11,301k 11,352k 11,354k 11,588k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,849k 3,391k 3,456k 3,407k 3,429k 3,416k 3,511k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,131k 5,993k 6,272k 6,333k 6,359k 6,362k 6,493k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,719k 1,652k 1,594k 1,561k 1,565k 1,576k 1,584k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,806k 14,520k 14,761k 14,796k 14,871k 15,007k 15,219k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,918k 4,649k 4,663k 4,653k 4,675k 4,703k 4,798k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,399k 8,415k 8,702k 8,816k 8,873k 8,962k 9,052k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,488k 1,455k 1,395k 1,326k 1,324k 1,342k 1,369k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3076 0.3049 0.3055 0.3054 0.3059 0.3064 0.3080
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,747 † £17,980 † £17,922 † £18,176 † £18,313 † £18,532 † £18,737 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,048 † £29,038 † £28,756 † £28,999 † £29,261 † £29,677 † £30,174 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,219 † £35,425 † £36,052 † £36,547 † £37,155 † £37,773 † £38,102 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,925 † £40,769 † £41,728 † £42,763 † £43,387 † £44,168 † £44,499 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,346 † £45,603 † £46,054 † £47,001 † £47,755 † £48,626 † £50,309 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £47,936 † £49,179 † £50,883 † £52,036 † £52,926 † £53,947 † £54,723 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £55,669 † £56,646 † £57,489 † £57,654 † £58,788 † £59,702 † £61,102 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £68,785 † £70,807 † £71,868 † £73,507 † £73,888 † £75,324 † £77,179 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £78,889 † £81,012 † £80,859 † £82,645 † £85,463 † £86,945 † £89,508 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £116,861 † £120,160 † £124,545 † £126,419 † £125,752 † £128,367 † £130,693 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.41bn £6.66bn £6.63bn £6.85bn £7.03bn £7.25bn £7.48bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.61bn £3.87bn £4.00bn £4.22bn £4.44bn £4.71bn £4.83bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.81bn £-3.93bn £-3.99bn £-4.05bn £-4.11bn £-4.24bn £-1.95bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-1.99bn £-1.75bn £-1.55bn £-1.38bn £-1.30bn £-1.18bn £-1.07bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.83bn £-21.38bn £-21.81bn £-22.02bn £-22.37bn £-22.77bn £-22.96bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £10.89bn £11.30bn £11.71bn £12.01bn £12.31bn £12.62bn £13.00bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £24.89bn £25.71bn £26.63bn £27.24bn £27.87bn £28.50bn £29.14bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.90bn £3.15bn £3.22bn £3.41bn £3.61bn £3.85bn £4.14bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.06bn £-3.23bn £-3.30bn £-3.40bn £-3.48bn £-3.53bn £-3.55bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.76bn £-7.99bn £-8.22bn £-8.44bn £-8.79bn £-8.52bn £-8.86bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.55bn £6.86bn £6.79bn £7.00bn £7.20bn £7.44bn £7.66bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.61bn £3.92bn £4.01bn £4.23bn £4.45bn £4.72bn £4.84bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.93bn £-4.07bn £-4.13bn £-4.18bn £-4.22bn £-4.40bn £-1.75bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.33bn £2.14bn £1.94bn £1.76bn £1.65bn £1.52bn £1.40bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.79bn £21.36bn £21.84bn £22.07bn £22.39bn £22.80bn £23.01bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.15bn £11.63bn £12.00bn £12.29bn £12.61bn £12.94bn £13.31bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £24.69bn £25.51bn £26.42bn £27.03bn £27.65bn £28.28bn £28.91bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.90bn £3.15bn £3.22bn £3.42bn £3.62bn £3.86bn £4.12bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.06bn £3.22bn £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.48bn £3.54bn £3.55bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.68bn £11.17bn £11.28bn £11.60bn £12.03bn £12.46bn £12.96bn

Core published policyengine-core#653 as 3.34.9. Lock 3.34.9's wheel and
sdist from PyPI in place of #653's head (14837f78) from GitHub. Drop that
git source from pyproject.toml and require policyengine-core>=3.34.9.

Core's release commit changes only the version and the changelog, and the
3.34.9 wheel's 194 package files match 14837f78 byte for byte. The
release's dependencies match 3.34.1's, so no other locked package moves.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review November 7, 2026 12:29
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Nov 7, 2026
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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Review status: COMPLETE — no findings or material evidence gaps

Reviewed head: 58b342e553cc5d4bc260d89fc4c08746d91b2192.

The release transition is verified: Core 3.34.9 is published on PyPI, the wheel and source archive match the lockfile hashes, the declared floor is >=3.34.9, and the Git override is removed. All 194 package files in both release artifacts match the previously reviewed Core commit 14837f784b52d731101dd2e322c7727895d08753. Other locked packages are unchanged, dependency metadata agrees with the reviewed environment, and all 18 checked runtime dependency versions match the lock. Released Core 3.34.9 and this UK snapshot imported successfully from an isolated installation without changing the borrowed environment.

The prior 156 targeted test passes (140 Python and 16 YAML) and 12 household-context evaluations are retained from 428d8ce5, supported by that package-byte, dependency and unchanged UK source/test proof. They are not new executions at this head; this round ran packaging/import validation without repeating pytest or model calculations. The prior final capital-gains-tax and net-income results remain applicable to the tested paths.

The technical scope remains the inspected Simulation.set_input/get_holder/apply_reform paths with compatible Person/YEAR gains, ordinary clone and reset. This does not certify raw held-Holder writes, serialization restore, neutralized-subsample ordering, schema/storage migrations, arbitrary system reassignment, or future #2265 integration. The historical aggregate report is dated evidence with its documented suppression/alignment and unchanged VAT-sign qualification; no private population run was performed.

This is a COMMENT, with approval withheld until applicable required CI passes at this exact head. The latest captured CI has no observed failures but is still running. The earlier Draft and release-transition conditions have been satisfied; pending CI should be checked later without repeating this completed code/source review. axiom: n/a remains appropriate for this dependency change.

@MaxGhenis

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Thanks, María. CI passed at 58b342e5: the full suite on core 3.34.9 from PyPI, and the aggregate impact check, which found no change in any year.

Once this lands, #2670 will conflict in pyproject.toml and uv.lock, where it raises the core floor to 3.33.2, and keeping main's >=3.34.9 resolves both. #2265 contains this branch and lands after it.

@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis requested a review from juaristi22 November 7, 2026 13:52

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Review status: COMPLETE — no findings or material evidence gaps

Approved head: 58b342e553cc5d4bc260d89fc4c08746d91b2192.

The completed code/source review remains valid. Core 3.34.9's published artifacts, registry lock, minimum version and removal of the Git override were verified; the 194 package files match the reviewed payload and the released-package import check passed.

Applicable exact-head CI has now passed. The updated description's current full-suite and aggregate citations were checked against their primary run records and public report, retaining the dataset/year, DSA suppression/alignment and unchanged VAT-sign qualifications.

This approval reuses the existing COMPLETE zero-finding code review and its API/storage scope. No model calculations or tests were repeated. Downstream #2670 merge coordination and future #2265 integration remain separate work.

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits November 9, 2026 08:35
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
From 3.34.9, Population.get_holder gives an existing holder its variable's
current definition whenever the holder's storage fits that definition. After
a reform restores a neutralised variable, a write to that variable now
replaces the value its holder kept through the neutralisation.

Drop the strict expected failures from both variants of
test_neutralized_inputs_and_model_values_survive_subsampling and from the
subsampled variants of test_restoring_reform_can_replace_a_neutralized_input,
with their two allowlist entries.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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Completed incremental review at 7e7ad197e24765da7c3ce181b0d9fecb0f9d5595: no open findings or material evidence gaps; all 25 targeted tests passed. Approval is deferred until pending exact-head CI completes.

Program review

Base repository: PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk
PR number: 2897
Reviewed head SHA: 7e7ad19
Merge base SHA: b8b383c
Mode: incremental from 58b342e
Scope: Main merge and removal of strict expected failures from neutralized-input/restoration tests and associated allowlist; verify released Core3.34.9 compatibility, reused dependency custody and affected final consumers.
Source manifest: /privateretained review artifacts/pr-2897-sweep20261109-1359-review-sources.json
Review status: COMPLETE

Source Documents

Critical

None.

Should Address

None.

Suggestions

None.

Evidence Gaps

No material gaps reported.

Notes

  • Exact captured head and merge-base are recorded. Imported main behavior outside affected dependencies reuses prior evidence.
  • Approval deferred while exact-head hosted Python CI remains pending; the completed code/source review can be reused for a later CI-only approval gate.
  • Pure infrastructure/dependency feature; imported main policy is not re-audited.
  • 25 current repository passes; all newly unmarked cases actually run without xfail/skip.
  • Core3.34.9/package lock unchanged from prior;194 package byte identity and17 current pins verified.
  • Code-only dependency/infrastructure scope; no changed statutory rule or policy/source reviewer required. A failed reviewer-only path-normalization preflight ran no repository tests and is excluded from passing counts; original campaign deadline retained.

Validation Summary

25 current targeted tests passed; no failures, skips or expected failures in the focused campaign. 19 retained originals and 19 extracts validated; no new source acquisition or rendering. 717 immutable technical receipt members SHA-256 checked before cleanup. All four newly unmarked restoration/subsampling variants passed; neutralized-versus-synthetic gains, stored-input provenance and final income-tax/household-net-income parity covered. Released Core3.34.9 matches all194 cached package files and17 current runtime pins; no dependency installation.

Timing

setup seconds: 160.74s; consolidation cleanup seconds: 59.40s; elapsed seconds: 828.82s

Review Severity

APPROVE. Open findings: 0 critical, 0 should address, 0 suggestions.

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Approve at 7e7ad197e24765da7c3ce181b0d9fecb0f9d5595. The pending-CI gate from the completed incremental review has cleared: 38 latest exact-head contexts passed, including required Lint and Test / Result; the nonrequired Publish job was skipped. The completed review has no open findings or material gaps; its 25 targeted passes are retained, with no repeated code review or model execution.

The current head, description, human activity, source dependencies, readiness and applicable required checks are refreshed before this approval.

@juaristi22
juaristi22 added this pull request to the merge queue Nov 9, 2026
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2 participants