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Document why the model leaves out Great Britain's Alternative Fuel Payment - #2769

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Document why the model leaves out Great Britain's Alternative Fuel Payment#2769
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 31, 2026 •
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Fixes #2767

Nobody merges this until Vahid confirms the Budget-week freeze.

What and why

This PR adds no rule. On the docs page and in the description of monthly_ebr_alternative_fuel_payment, it documents why the model leaves out Great Britain's £200 Alternative Fuel Payment: none of the proxies these datasets support lands near DESNZ's 1,842,760 delivered payments on a dataset with a 2023 year.

Engine run of the spending proxy (positive liquid or solid fuel spending) Great Britain households paid Share of DESNZ Value
Enhanced FRS 2023-24, 2023 0 0% £0
Microcosm 3c0d11b6, 2023 0 0% £0
Microcosm 3c0d11b6, 2024, payment moved to February 2024 842,000 46% £168.3m

DESNZ's end-of-scheme workbook records 1,842,760 delivered payments worth £368,551,840. Local authorities paid 89,750 more through the Alternative Fund.

Spending on the datasets

The enhanced FRS 2023-24 and Populace 2023 have no liquid_fuel_consumption or solid_fuel_consumption column. Microcosm carries both but starts in 2024: a 2023 simulation on it returns a weight of 1 per household, 78,255 in all, every one in England. At 2024, Microcosm's spenders fall 83% short of DESNZ in the South West (63,000 against 366,280), 74% short in Scotland (74,000 against 286,120) and 77% short in Wales (44,000 against 190,380).

How DESNZ chose the meters

Suppliers paid whoever held the account for each meter the Secretary of State named (direction, paragraph 6). DESNZ built that list from postcodes off the gas grid, minus areas with high use of electric heating (interim evaluation, page 54).

Spending in the donor survey

The LCFS finds spenders at 83% to 86% of DESNZ's count across 2021-22, 2023-24 and 2024-25, but partly the wrong households. About a third of spenders have gas central heating, and more than a third of households with alternative central heating report no purchase. Microcosm's draw then keeps 54% of the LCFS 2024-25 spenders.

Housing filters

Four no-gas filters by dwelling type, tenure or electricity use reach 86% to 118% of DESNZ's count on Microcosm, inside the bands I set after seeing the first counts: count within 20% of DESNZ, and a regional dissimilarity index of at most 0.20. None of them ships:

  • They fail on the datasets with a 2023 year. The same filters reach 4% to 25% on the enhanced FRS 2023-24. Its bare no-gas count reaches 45%, and 97% of those households carry zero electricity spending, so those zeros mark missing energy data rather than homes off the grid.
  • Microcosm draws gas spending from the LCFS by household size, income, tenure, dwelling, vehicles and region, then removes gas users at random, or adds non-users by their chance of paying for gas, until each region matches DESNZ's meter share. Neither step reads heating fuel, so zero gas spending there does not identify a household's fuel.
  • They add conditions the scheme never had, and two of them pay no renter.
  • They send London 71,000 to 195,000 payments against DESNZ's 2,020.

DESNZ's local authority table

The enhanced FRS carries area codes, but no variable reads them, and local_authority returns Maidstone for all 53,508 records at 2023. A rule that read them could allocate DESNZ's table, and capping each authority at the file's households would lose 1.9% of payments. That allocation would still pay at random within each authority, a stand-in calibrated to DESNZ's own total, with nothing left to compare.

Heating fuel data

In the LCFS, central-heating flags reach 79% to 91% of DESNZ's count, about where spending lands, and they record the fuel itself. Census 2021 counts 1,211,223 households in England and Wales on these fuels alone, 78% of DESNZ's count there, with a regional dissimilarity index of 0.06. DESNZ chose recipients by postcode, so a household fuel flag stays a proxy. A name search of the raw FRS 2023-24 tables finds no heating-fuel column, so policyengine-uk-data (or a 2023 Microcosm) would have to draw one from the LCFS or the census, and monthly_ebr_alternative_fuel_payment would then gain a Great Britain branch. That draw could lose what Microcosm's lost: it kept 54% of LCFS spenders.

Impact

None on model results. The model already pays nothing in Great Britain, and alternative_fuel_payment.yaml and the Hypothesis properties from #2735 pin that. The omission understates income and government spending by about £387m in 2023, or £369m on supplier payments alone, and in no other year.

Limits of the evidence

  • DESNZ counts electricity accounts, and the model counts households. DESNZ's cover sheet warns of "relatively broad uncertainties".
  • The census comparison covers England and Wales: I could not reach Scotland's Census 2022 table or an all-Northern Ireland table.
  • LCFS regional cells run thin, so the regional figures serve as a guide.
  • 3c0d11b6 (28 October) is the newest Microcosm release on this machine. I could not list the Hugging Face refs to confirm it is the latest.
  • I read Microcosm's gas code on main at f36a14a3c, which may differ from the 3c0d11b6 build.

Test plan

  • Policy changes: not applicable, the formula stays the same.
  • make format.
  • test_energy_bills_rebate_northern_ireland_properties.py (4 passed) and the energy_bills_rebate YAML tests (33 passed).
  • Changelog fragment changelog.d/2767.changed.md.
  • Every figure traces to a saved output or source.

Reproducer: n/a: documentation text only, no change in behaviour

axiom: n/a: documentation text only, no rule changes

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 4 commits October 31, 2026 08:56
@MaxGhenis @claude
Document why the model leaves out Great Britain's Alternative Fuel Pa…
ba91d5e 
…yment

No heating-fuel proxy lands near DESNZ's 1,842,760 delivered payments on a
dataset with a 2023 year, so the model keeps paying nothing in Great Britain.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Tighten the Great Britain Alternative Fuel Payment docs
ffec8dd 
State the size of the omission, quote the direction's account-holder test on
1 February 2023, and say what the 2023 datasets lack rather than what would
fix it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Describe the Alternative Fuel Payment by meter in the docs bullet
df640ec 
Suppliers paid on the meters the government listed, whatever fuel the home
burned, so the bullet now matches the section below it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Describe Great Britain's Alternative Fuel Payment by meter in the var…
edffb7e 
…iable

The formula stays the same. Only the description changes, to match the docs.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 31, 2026 13:32
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 31, 2026
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Hand-off to the UK hub at head edffb7e.

  • Review: GPT-6.1 Sol r4 APPROVE at this head (~/reviews/pe-uk-gb-afp/reviews/r4-out.md). r1 and r2 ran on Opus and r3 on Sol, and all four agreed with the stop. I fixed their findings.
  • Checks: lint, docs build, changelog, fix evidence, smoke imports and release build pass. Test / YAML and Python shards 1 to 6 are running. Locally, the 4 property tests and 33 energy_bills_rebate YAML tests pass.
  • Depends on: nothing. Classify the Budget helper variables in the fiscal partition #2763 touches neither changed file.
  • Hold: d2161. Nobody merges or enqueues this until Vahid confirms. d2155 (calendar or financial year) does not block it.
  • Follow-up: Add a household heating-fuel input for 2023 policyengine-uk-data#642 for the heating-fuel input.
  • Evidence: ~/reviews/pe-uk-gb-afp/REPORT.md.

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 31, 2026
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 2da212abcf against head fdd23fa993, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,888,684 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,777,260 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,727,917 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 92 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 2da212abcf uk 2.170.0 (files e654eb5f6f55), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64 77aac721ac5e 7cb61324a46b 2160.32s
head #2769 merged into main fdd23fa993 uk 2.170.0 (files 2a04a5a2b582), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64 77aac721ac5e 7cb61324a46b 2109.27s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Income tax £294.46bn £315.23bn £335.83bn £351.28bn £366.96bn £385.36bn £400.00bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £51.70bn £54.14bn £56.13bn £57.73bn £59.76bn £61.64bn £63.51bn
National Insurance (employer) £148.71bn £155.37bn £160.88bn £165.09bn £172.06bn £177.36bn £182.57bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.60bn £13.15bn £13.60bn £14.11bn £14.67bn £15.24bn £15.80bn
Student loan repayments £7.82bn £8.13bn £8.39bn £8.58bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.29bn
VAT excluding private school fees £249.37bn £256.87bn £266.33bn £272.70bn £278.97bn £285.24bn £291.59bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £1.95bn £2.01bn £2.09bn £2.14bn £2.20bn £2.26bn £2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.71bn £24.13bn £26.00bn £26.83bn £26.51bn £25.78bn £24.63bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.26bn £4.40bn £4.41bn £4.42bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.45bn
Council tax £49.21bn £52.16bn £54.89bn £57.95bn £61.16bn £64.47bn £67.91bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.63bn £0.66bn £0.69bn £0.72bn
Business rates £34.68bn £36.20bn £38.00bn £39.46bn £42.27bn £43.25bn £44.29bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.88bn £7.32bn £7.66bn £8.06bn £8.47bn £8.91bn £9.35bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.72bn £4.57bn £5.29bn £6.03bn £6.37bn £6.92bn £7.45bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.07bn £0.08bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.38bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
State Pension £121.68bn £125.92bn £126.73bn £129.50bn £132.99bn £136.66bn £140.43bn
Pension Credit £6.66bn £7.03bn £7.29bn £7.48bn £7.60bn £7.84bn £8.03bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.86bn £1.85bn £1.79bn £1.77bn £1.78bn £1.78bn £1.78bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.48bn £80.52bn £82.95bn £84.96bn £86.11bn £87.61bn £88.21bn
Housing Benefit £8.56bn £8.89bn £9.23bn £9.46bn £9.69bn £9.99bn £10.27bn
Council Tax Reduction £2.07bn £2.20bn £2.31bn £2.45bn £2.58bn £2.72bn £2.86bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.82bn £0.84bn £0.86bn £0.88bn £0.90bn £0.92bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.20bn £5.37bn £5.56bn £5.69bn £5.82bn £5.95bn £6.09bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn
Income Support £0.11bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £26.95bn £28.03bn £29.05bn £30.09bn £30.75bn £31.51bn £32.21bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.49bn £7.79bn £8.07bn £8.36bn £8.55bn £8.76bn £8.95bn
Attendance Allowance £8.68bn £9.03bn £9.36bn £9.69bn £9.90bn £10.15bn £10.38bn
Carer's Allowance £4.48bn £4.66bn £4.83bn £5.00bn £5.11bn £5.27bn £5.42bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.58bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.68bn £0.69bn £0.71bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.19bn £16.82bn £17.39bn £18.00bn £18.39bn £18.84bn £19.25bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.49bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.30bn £3.41bn £3.54bn £3.62bn £3.70bn £3.78bn £3.87bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.12bn £1.16bn £1.20bn £1.23bn £1.26bn £1.29bn £1.32bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.71bn £0.73bn £0.75bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.99bn £3.50bn £3.59bn £3.71bn £3.78bn £3.86bn £3.93bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.06bn £2.22bn £2.29bn £2.37bn £2.43bn £2.48bn £2.53bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Childcare Offer for Wales £0.26bn £0.28bn £0.28bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £203.89bn £204.30bn £204.56bn £204.91bn £205.34bn £205.85bn £206.35bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.05bn £25.10bn £25.14bn £25.18bn £25.23bn £25.30bn £25.36bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Household Energy Payment £0.00bn £2.11bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
State Pension 11,264k 11,145k 10,819k 10,700k 10,723k 10,750k 10,776k
Pension Credit 1,486k 1,480k 1,472k 1,452k 1,450k 1,455k 1,464k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,844k 7,783k 7,473k 7,375k 7,391k 7,409k 7,427k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 803k 802k 800k 797k 799k 801k 802k
Universal Credit 6,342k 6,347k 6,336k 6,297k 6,292k 6,271k 6,223k
Housing Benefit 1,249k 1,245k 1,244k 1,227k 1,227k 1,229k 1,232k
Council Tax Reduction 3,176k 3,195k 3,200k 3,214k 3,224k 3,235k 3,242k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 719k 720k 721k 722k 724k 726k 728k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,567k 3,575k 3,579k 3,585k 3,593k 3,602k 3,611k
Disability Living Allowance 1,291k 1,294k 1,296k 1,298k 1,300k 1,304k 1,307k
Attendance Allowance 1,695k 1,698k 1,700k 1,703k 1,707k 1,711k 1,715k
Carer's Allowance 1,034k 1,037k 1,038k 1,040k 1,042k 1,060k 1,062k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 137k 137k 138k 138k 138k 139k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 93k 93k 94k 94k 94k 94k 94k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,123k 8,120k 8,120k 8,130k 8,145k 8,161k 8,178k
Scottish Child Payment 351k 352k 352k 353k 350k 348k 337k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 200k 200k 201k 201k 201k 202k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 333k 333k 334k 334k 335k 336k 337k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 181k 182k 182k 182k 182k 183k 183k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,043k 1,027k 1,014k 1,009k 1,011k 1,009k 993k
Extended childcare entitlement 795k 800k 796k 797k 798k 798k 792k
Universal childcare entitlement 1,071k 1,072k 1,072k 1,073k 1,076k 1,079k 1,074k
Targeted childcare entitlement 165k 156k 154k 154k 155k 155k 150k
Childcare Offer for Wales 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 99k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 12k 12k 12k 12k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Household Energy Payment 0k 21,065k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £892.00bn £934.66bn £980.50bn £1,015.93bn £1,054.24bn £1,091.56bn £1,124.90bn
Government spending £529.38bn † £545.66bn † £550.77bn † £559.52bn † £567.20bn † £575.96bn † £583.61bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £362.62bn † £389.00bn † £429.73bn † £456.41bn † £487.04bn † £515.61bn † £541.29bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £892.00bn £934.66bn £980.50bn £1,015.93bn £1,054.24bn £1,091.56bn £1,124.90bn
household_tax £491.97bn £520.41bn £551.21bn £576.01bn £601.00bn £626.70bn £648.42bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £484.15bn £512.28bn £542.82bn £566.95bn £591.72bn £617.16bn £638.62bn
gov_spending £529.38bn † £545.66bn † £550.77bn † £559.52bn † £567.20bn † £575.96bn † £583.61bn †
household_benefits £529.38bn † £545.66bn † £550.77bn † £559.52bn † £567.20bn † £575.96bn † £583.61bn †
gov_balance £362.62bn † £389.00bn † £429.73bn † £456.41bn † £487.04bn † £515.61bn † £541.29bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,637.96bn £1,702.77bn £1,757.35bn £1,806.41bn £1,855.97bn £1,912.43bn £1,970.44bn
Household net income £1,636.69bn † £1,687.82bn † £1,715.46bn † £1,747.50bn † £1,778.70bn † £1,817.02bn † £1,859.69bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,449.57bn £1,499.83bn £1,530.87bn £1,565.18bn £1,597.89bn £1,635.60bn £1,676.62bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,245k 69,383k 69,473k 69,592k 69,738k 69,912k 70,080k
Benefit units 35,110k 35,181k 35,226k 35,286k 35,360k 35,449k 35,534k
Households 31,046k 31,108k 31,149k 31,201k 31,267k 31,345k 31,420k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.3% 15.5% 16.4% 16.3% 16.5% 16.5% 16.6%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.7% 22.1% 23.3% 22.9% 23.1% 23.2% 23.5%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.1% 13.8% 14.7% 14.7% 14.8% 14.8% 15.0%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.4% 14.0% 13.8% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 21.0% 22.0% 22.6% 22.9% 23.1% 23.4%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.3% 31.3% 32.3% 32.5% 32.9% 33.4% 34.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.8% 21.6% 21.9% 22.0% 22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.4% 13.2% 13.2% 13.3% 13.4% 13.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.0% 16.0% 16.4% 16.3% 16.4% 16.3% 16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 25.9% 22.9% 23.3% 22.9% 23.0% 22.9% 23.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.5% 14.1% 14.6% 14.7% 14.7% 14.7% 15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 14.5% 14.0% 13.9% 13.8% 13.8% 13.9% 13.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.4% 21.0% 21.3% 21.3% 21.3% 21.5% 21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.1% 31.1% 31.2% 31.0% 31.1% 31.2% 31.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.4% 20.5% 20.6% 20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.5% 12.4% 12.2% 11.7% 11.7% 11.8% 12.0%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,278k 10,779k 11,402k 11,365k 11,475k 11,513k 11,651k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,688k 3,314k 3,496k 3,445k 3,480k 3,502k 3,549k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,965k 5,893k 6,308k 6,362k 6,420k 6,430k 6,521k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,624k 1,572k 1,598k 1,559k 1,575k 1,580k 1,581k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,944k 14,600k 15,310k 15,721k 15,936k 16,141k 16,426k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,975k 4,682k 4,837k 4,888k 4,945k 5,040k 5,179k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,463k 8,461k 8,971k 9,344k 9,491k 9,584k 9,706k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,506k 1,457k 1,502k 1,490k 1,500k 1,517k 1,542k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,750k 11,084k 11,388k 11,364k 11,416k 11,415k 11,651k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,872k 3,423k 3,496k 3,445k 3,466k 3,454k 3,549k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,159k 6,013k 6,301k 6,362k 6,389k 6,389k 6,521k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,720k 1,648k 1,590k 1,557k 1,562k 1,572k 1,581k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,849k 14,552k 14,775k 14,809k 14,874k 15,014k 15,234k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,942k 4,660k 4,673k 4,663k 4,679k 4,707k 4,806k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,426k 8,440k 8,711k 8,823k 8,873k 8,967k 9,062k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,482k 1,452k 1,391k 1,323k 1,322k 1,339k 1,365k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3080 0.3052 0.3058 0.3058 0.3063 0.3069 0.3085
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,681 † £17,997 † £17,915 † £18,152 † £18,307 † £18,531 † £18,717 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £27,939 † £29,023 † £28,711 † £29,013 † £29,276 † £29,691 † £30,151 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,320 † £35,485 † £36,073 † £36,611 † £37,197 † £37,737 † £38,187 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,933 † £40,687 † £41,724 † £42,727 † £43,334 † £44,132 † £44,434 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,239 † £45,567 † £46,012 † £46,960 † £47,714 † £48,584 † £50,279 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £47,927 † £49,210 † £50,893 † £51,939 † £52,942 † £53,942 † £54,680 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £55,662 † £56,571 † £57,442 † £57,670 † £58,730 † £59,651 † £61,082 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £68,789 † £70,803 † £71,858 † £73,466 † £73,880 † £75,317 † £77,178 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £78,890 † £81,013 † £80,861 † £82,646 † £85,464 † £86,946 † £89,509 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,005 † £120,339 † £124,742 † £126,632 † £125,971 † £128,600 † £130,938 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.41bn £6.66bn £6.63bn £6.85bn £7.03bn £7.25bn £7.49bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.61bn £3.87bn £4.00bn £4.22bn £4.44bn £4.71bn £4.83bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.80bn £-3.92bn £-3.98bn £-4.04bn £-4.10bn £-4.23bn £-1.95bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-1.99bn £-1.75bn £-1.55bn £-1.38bn £-1.30bn £-1.18bn £-1.07bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.77bn £-21.32bn £-21.75bn £-21.99bn £-22.34bn £-22.75bn £-22.94bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £10.89bn £11.30bn £11.71bn £12.01bn £12.31bn suppressed suppressed
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £24.89bn £25.71bn £26.63bn £27.24bn £27.87bn £28.50bn £29.14bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.90bn £3.15bn £3.22bn £3.41bn £3.61bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.06bn £-3.18bn £-3.26bn £-3.35bn £-3.44bn £-3.49bn £-3.50bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.78bn £-8.01bn £-8.24bn £-8.47bn £-8.82bn £-8.55bn £-8.89bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.55bn £6.86bn £6.79bn £7.00bn £7.20bn £7.44bn £7.66bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.61bn £3.92bn £4.01bn £4.23bn £4.45bn £4.72bn £4.84bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.93bn £-4.07bn £-4.13bn £-4.18bn £-4.22bn £-4.40bn £-1.75bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.33bn £2.14bn £1.94bn £1.76bn £1.65bn £1.52bn £1.40bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.74bn £21.31bn £21.78bn £22.04bn £22.37bn £22.78bn £22.99bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.15bn £11.63bn £12.00bn £12.29bn £12.61bn suppressed suppressed
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £24.69bn £25.51bn £26.42bn £27.03bn £27.65bn £28.28bn £28.91bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.90bn £3.15bn £3.22bn £3.42bn £3.62bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.06bn £3.19bn £3.28bn £3.37bn £3.43bn £3.49bn £3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.68bn £11.17bn £11.28bn £11.60bn £12.04bn £12.47bn £12.97bn

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Model Great Britain's £200 Alternative Fuel Payment

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@MaxGhenis