Round projected State Pension weekly rates to the nearest 5p each April by MaxGhenis · Pull Request #2751 · PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-29T16:25:26Z

What

The model now rounds projected State Pension weekly rates as DWP rounds them in each Up-rating Order. Each April, the model takes the previous year's full new and basic State Pension rates, raises them by that April's triple lock rate, and rounds each to the nearest 5p. Published rates (to April 2026) stay unchanged.

On the October 2026 forecast, the full new State Pension becomes £250.70, £259.20 and £265.70 a week for 2027-28 to 2029-30 (was £250.71, £259.24 and £265.72). The basic State Pension becomes £192.10, £198.65 and £203.60 (was £192.11, £198.64 and £203.61). 52 weeks at £250.70 give the £13,036.40 that HM Treasury's Pension Tax Allowance explainer uses. #2719's Pension Tax Allowance, now on main, takes its threshold from this rate, so the threshold moves to that figure.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_state_pension_rate_rounding.py::test_april_2027_is_the_pension_tax_allowance_explainer_figure

The rule and its sources

Statute. Social Security Administration Act 1992 s.150A(4) lets the Secretary of State round each increase "up or down to such extent as he thinks appropriate".
DWP practice. DWP applies the review's percentage "to the current full weekly rates of the basic and new State Pensions. The resulting amounts are rounded to the nearest 5p" (HL10770, 20 October 2025). The Explanatory Memoranda to the Up-rating Orders say the same for the full rates: SI 2017/260 and 2018/281 ¶4.11, SI 2019/480 ¶7.16, and SI 2020/234 ¶7.17.
Forecast baseline. HM Treasury's Budget 2026 policy costings, Annex A (p.114), project both rates as the triple lock "rounded to the nearest 5p". The same wording appears in every fiscal event back to Autumn Statement 2023.
History. The previous published rate, uprated and rounded to the nearest 5p, reproduces every basic rate from April 2011 and every full new rate from April 2017 (test_triple_lock_outturn.py). Always rounding up or always down to 5p, or rounding to the nearest 10p, each misses five or more of those years. Over 2003–2026 nearest 5p gets 44 of 45 published rates. The one miss, April 2003, followed a £100-a-year cash pledge.
2027-28 check. HCWS427 (28 October 2026) gives rises of "around £490" (new) and "around £375" (basic) a year. (250.70 − 241.30) × 52 = £488.80 and (192.10 − 184.90) × 52 = £374.40.

Each year starts from the previous year's rounded rate: £250.70 × 1.034 = £259.2238 gives £259.20 for April 2028, where rounding the unrounded path (£259.2357) would give £259.25.

How

A new generation step, create_rate_projection.project_state_pension_rates, runs after the economic assumption indices and main's household energy price indices, and before the Pension Credit projection. Neither it nor the energy price step reads what the other generates. For each rate it fills the years after the last stated value, through the last year of the rate's uprating index. The step multiplies the previous year's value by the index's growth over the year and rounds the product to the nearest multiple of gov.dwp.state_pension.weekly_rate_rounding (0.05) in Decimal. No published rate has landed on a half, so the sources leave ties open; the model rounds halves up. The baseline copy, prior law's projected path for dated reforms and the fiscal-year annualisation all see the rounded rates. General uprating then has no year left to fill.
The growth comes from the index named in each rate's uprating metadata. So a reform to the triple lock rate, its inputs or the index moves the projection, and so does a reform to the rounding parameter, set for whole fiscal years (a single value, a year key or a date range covering 30 April) through a reform dict or Scenario(parameter_changes=...). The step reads each April's rounding on 30 April. Setting the rounding to 0 gives the unrounded chain. A rate a reform states for a year stays as stated, and the years after follow prior law's rounded path, as dated reforms fill gaps.
The earnings-path guarantee (a reform option, off under current law) holds for the uprating percentages. The weekly rate then rounds to the nearest 5p, which s.150A(4) allows even below the minimum: in April 2019, 2.6% earnings growth took £164.35 to £168.6231, and the Order set £168.60. So under the guarantee the rate can sit a few pence below the earnings path. The parameter's documentation and its test now say so.
create_economic_assumption_indices no longer rounds the triple lock index to 5 decimal places, and it already leaves the earnings uprating index unrounded. Rounding it added up to about 3e-6 to the index's yearly growth, enough to tip a rate to the other 5p.
The State Pension docs page now describes the 5p projection, citing the Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2020/234 ¶7.17 for the rounding of the full rates.
Partial awards follow, as HL10770 describes: new_state_pension and basic_state_pension pay a share of the full rate, so a partial award rises by the rounded full rate's percentage. The model's additional State Pension follows September CPI and does not change.

Invariants (all tested)

For both rates:

The projection leaves published rates as stated.
Every projected rate (2027–2039) is a whole number of 5p.
Each projected year is the previous year's rate times that April's triple lock rate, to the nearest 5p, so within 2.5p of the unrounded product. The projector first quantizes the product to six decimal places and rounds halves up. So a reform whose product falls within 0.0000005 below a half-5p point rounds up: £273.7249996 gives £273.75. Published rates and growth don't reach this case.
April 2027 gives HM Treasury's published £13,036.40 a year, and the £93.28 of tax the explainer says that income bears at Step 5. The Pension Tax Allowance then removes all of it.
A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension has total income of 52 weeks at the projected rate, the Pension Tax Allowance threshold, in 2027-28 to 2029-30 (to the float32 precision simulations hold).
A parameter sets the rounding. Each reform route (reform dict, parameter changes, before data load) moves the projection by it. Zero gives the unrounded chain, and the baseline stays current law. A rate a reform states for a year stays as stated.
A changed triple lock rate or index moves the projection, at full precision. A 3.9% triple lock for April 2028 makes April 2030 exactly £273.675, which rounds up to £273.70; with the index stored to 5 decimal places it would give £273.65, and the test catches that. It also checks £273.725, which halves up takes to £273.75 and halves to even would take down.
Properties (Hypothesis):
- rounding lands on the grid, within half a unit, idempotently and monotonically;
- uprating matches the rule, and a rise never lowers the rate;
- project_weekly_rate on any synthetic path equals the chained rule;
- a triple lock rate set by reform feeds the chain.

Existing tests in test_process_time_reforms.py and test_triple_lock_statutory_inputs.py used to accept the unrounded product (abs=0.006). They now check the nearest-5p chain exactly. test_dwp_published_rates.py checks that each 2027-28 rate continues from the published 2026-27 rate. It expected the unrounded product for both State Pension rates and failed on c7b2972 (250.70 against 250.7107). It now rounds that product to the nearest 5p: 241.30 × 1.039 = 250.7107 gives £250.70, and 184.90 × 1.039 = 192.1111 gives £192.10.

Impact

CI aggregate impact (certified Enhanced FRS 2024-25, main vs this branch)

At b5de2c7, against main at 2da212a (with #2719), the Aggregate impact check passed and flagged no move. On the certified Enhanced FRS 2024-25:

	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30
State Pension	−£5.8m	−£7.0m	−£7.1m
Pension Credit	+£0.6m	+£0.4m	+£0.7m
Income tax	−£1.0m	−£0.7m	−£1.2m
Household net income (HBAI)	−£4.2m	−£5.9m	−£5.1m

Before #2719 (c7b2972 against daec84d), income tax fell by £1.0m, £1.5m and £1.4m. The gap, £0.8m in 2028-29 and £0.2m in 2029-30, comes close to the fall in the Pension Tax Allowance's cost in the in-engine run below (£0.9m and £0.2m).

Pension Tax Allowance under #2719 (in-engine), certified Enhanced FRS 2024-25

This ran #2719's head (c086c49) against #2719 merged with this branch (local merge). Weighted figures, from Microsimulation on the certified dataset (1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd…). #2719 took in more of main (#2545's Step 6 limit and #2723's savings income path among them) before it landed at head 60a92b4, so the figures at the merged state can differ from these.

	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30
Threshold (52 × full new SP)	£13,036.97 → £13,036.40	£13,480.26 → £13,478.40	£13,817.30 → £13,816.40
Full allowance	£94 → £94	£183 → £182	£250 → £250
Cost	£43.6m → £43.6m	£127.4m → £126.5m	£215.3m → £215.1m
Gainers	775,000 (no change)	1,158,000 (no change to the nearest thousand)	1,458,000 (no change)
On the taper, still paying tax	479,000 (no change)	639,000 → 638,000	851,000 (no change)
State Pension spending	−£6m	−£7m	−£7m
Pension Credit	+£1m	+£1m	+£1m
Income tax	−£1m	−£1m	−£1m

In this dataset every record on the full new State Pension also has some additional State Pension (most often £43 to £46 a year), so nobody sits exactly at the threshold, before or after. The change in 2028-29 comes from the full allowance: 20% × (£13,478.40 − £12,570) = £181.68 rounds up to £182, where the unrounded £182.05 rounded up to £183.

Pension Tax Allowance on the Budget dashboard's basis

This used the dashboard's microsimulation build (pe-uk 2.151.0 with this change overlaid, OBR October 2026 forecast) against the run behind the Neidle 53% note. The dashboard already set the threshold from the rate rounded to 5p, so only incomes move.

	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30
Cost	£41.5m → £41.5m	£112.5m → £112.6m	£193.0m → £193.0m
Gainers	668,000 → 667,000	1,060,000 → 1,064,000	1,363,000 → 1,363,000
On the taper, still paying tax	256,000 → 250,000	557,000 → 387,000	478,000 → 468,000
of whom at 53.3%	241,000 → 235,000	524,000 → 353,000	438,000 → 428,000
of whom at 52.3% (Scottish starter rate)	15,000 → 15,000	33,000 → 33,000	40,000 → 40,000
Only the full new SP, on the taper paying tax	under 1,000 → under 1,000	174,000 → under 1,000	under 1,000 → under 1,000

Before, people whose only income was the full new State Pension sat 57p, £1.86 and 90p above the threshold. In 2028-29 that left about 174,000 of them on the taper, paying about 67p each. Now they sit at the threshold: their allowance covers all their tax. The 2028-29 count of people on the taper still paying tax falls from 557,000 to 387,000, close to the 384,000 an earlier analysis got by setting that group aside.

Interaction with #2719

#2719 landed on main first, so this branch merges main (2da212a) and takes the patch from the comment on #2719. At £250.70 a week, 52 weeks give a 2027-28 threshold of £13,036.40, and the model rounds the full allowance, 20% × £466.40 = £93.28, up to £94. Five of the 15 cases in tests/policy/reforms/oct_2026_budget/pension_tax_allowance.yaml take new expectations:

Jonathan gets £94 − £150 / 3 = £44 (was £44.19), the explainer's own figure, so his income tax rises from £103.75 to £103.94.
A Scottish taxpayer with £13,186.40 of private pension also gets £44 (was £44.19), so their income tax rises from £72.93 to £73.12.
The taper now ends at £13,036.40 + 3 × £94 = £13,318.40, and £13,317.40, a pound before the end, leaves 33p.
In 2028-29, 52 weeks at £259.20 give a threshold of £13,478.40, and 20% × £908.40 = £181.68, so the full allowance falls from £183 to £182. Income £300 above the threshold leaves £82 (was £83).

The variable's documentation now gives the explainer's £13,036.40 for 2027-28, where it gave the unrounded £13,036.97. With the allowance in force from 2027-28, test_state_pension_rate_rounding.py checks the explainer's £93.28 as Steph's Step 5 tax and as her allowance, and her income tax at £0. It used to assert £93.28 of income tax.

Tests

Each file ran on its own, without survey data, on the model and test code of b5de2c7: the commits after c69f9af change only the changelog fragment and the State Pension docs page.

test_state_pension_rate_rounding.py: 34 passed, in three parts
test_triple_lock_outturn.py: 42 passed
tests/policy/reforms/oct_2026_budget/pension_tax_allowance.yaml: 15 passed
test_income_tax_step_6_step_7_properties.py: 10 passed
test_dwp_published_rates.py: 1,297 passed, 60 skipped
103 more files that main changed after daec84d or that test pensions (92 YAML, 11 Python): 1,230 passed. Four slow property files (test_carers_allowance_earnings_taper.py, test_council_tax_reduction_pension_credit_properties.py, test_pension_tax_allowance_properties.py and test_process_time_reforms.py) passed every test they reached before the 25-minute local limit.

CI at b5de2c7 passes every check, among them the YAML suite, all six Python shards, the documentation build and Aggregate impact.

Axiom

axiom: n/a: a forecast convention for rates no Order has set yet. s.150A(4) leaves the rounding to the Secretary of State, and the queued s.150A issue, TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#366, excludes any rounding convention for that reason.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

DWP applies each review's percentage to the current full weekly rates of the basic and new State Pensions and rounds the results to the nearest 5p (HL10770; EMs to SI 2017/260-2020/234), and HM Treasury's forecast baseline projects them the same way (Budget 2026 policy costings, Annex A). The model instead multiplied the last published rate by the triple lock index's growth, unrounded, so the full new State Pension was £250.71 for 2027-28 against the £250.70 behind the Pension Tax Allowance explainer's £13,036.40. A generation step now fills each rate's projected years from the year before, rounded to gov.dwp.state_pension.weekly_rate_rounding (5p). The triple lock index is no longer rounded to five decimals, which put up to about 3e-6 of noise into its yearly growth. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Simulations hold float32, so 52 weeks at £250.70 comes back as £13,036.399. The tests now compare simulated incomes to half a penny, which still separates them from the unrounded rates' 57p to £1.86. The synthetic projection property builds its parameters under a node, as mark_as_modified needs a parent. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

github-actions · 2026-10-29T16:38:21Z

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 2da212abcf against head 6b142ec78a, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Receipts by tax head

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	0	0	-£1.0m	-£0.7m	-£1.2m	-£0.6m	-£1.8m
Capital gains tax	0	0	-£843	-£1,081	-£1,123	-£517	-£1,627

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	0	0	-£5.8m	-£7.0m	-£7.1m	-£3.0m	-£9.5m
Pension Credit	0	0	+£0.6m	+£0.4m	+£0.7m	+£0.2m	+£1.0m
Universal Credit	0	0	+£3,805	+£8,477	+£4,679	+£2,596	+£5,401
Housing Benefit	0	0	+£27,168	+£64,044	+£35,931	+£12,494	+£34,682
Council Tax Reduction	0	0	+£11,825	+£12,479	+£14,649	+£5,994	+£19,966
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Council Tax Reduction	0	0	0	0	+512	0	0
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	0	0	-£1.0m	-£0.7m	-£1.2m	-£0.6m	-£1.8m
Government spending	0 †	0 †	-£5.1m †	-£6.6m †	-£6.3m †	-£2.8m †	-£8.5m †
Government balance, each receipt once	0 †	0 †	+£4.2m †	+£5.9m †	+£5.1m †	+£2.2m †	+£6.6m †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	0	0	-£1.0m	-£0.7m	-£1.2m	-£0.6m	-£1.8m
household_tax	0	0	-£1.0m	-£0.7m	-£1.2m	-£0.6m	-£1.8m
pre_budget_change_household_tax	0	0	-£1.0m	-£0.7m	-£1.2m	-£0.6m	-£1.8m
gov_spending	0 †	0 †	-£5.1m †	-£6.6m †	-£6.3m †	-£2.8m †	-£8.5m †
household_benefits	0 †	0 †	-£5.1m †	-£6.6m †	-£6.3m †	-£2.8m †	-£8.5m †
gov_balance	0 †	0 †	+£4.2m †	+£5.9m †	+£5.1m †	+£2.2m †	+£6.6m †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	0 †	0 †	-£4.2m †	-£5.9m †	-£5.1m †	-£2.2m †	-£6.6m †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	0	0	-£4.2m	-£5.9m	-£5.1m	-£2.2m	-£6.6m

Poverty rates

Measure	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	-0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	-0.01pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	0	0	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	0	+0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	+0.00pp	0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	+0.00pp	0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+0.00pp	0	0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+0.01pp	0	0

People in poverty

Measure	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	-677	+393
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	-677	+393
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	0	0	+694
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	0	+694
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	+494	0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	+494	0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+801	0	0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+801	0	0

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0	0	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.09 †	-£0.09 †	-£0.11 †	-£0.03 †	-£0.14 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.19 †	-£0.16 †	-£0.20 †	-£0.07 †	-£0.27 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.17 †	-£0.20 †	-£0.19 †	-£0.32 †	-£0.26 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.15 †	-£0.15 †	-£0.19 †	+£0.16 †	-£2.25 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	+£1.94 †	-£0.20 †	-£1.97 †	-£0.07 †	+£2.52 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.98 †	-£0.25 †	+£2.30 †	-£0.08 †	-£0.21 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.12 †	-£0.20 †	-£0.16 †	+£5.71 †	-£0.21 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.16 †	-£0.25 †	-£0.19 †	+£3.07 †	-£0.25 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.13 †	-£0.31 †	-£0.20 †	-£0.11 †	-£0.24 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.07 †	-£0.10 †	-£0.09 †	-£0.04 †	-£0.12 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	-£48,030	-£45,992	-£43,733	-£26,026	-£65,479
Raise higher rate by 1pp	-£4,549	-£7,778	-£6,246	-£3,259	-£8,294
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	-£53,929	-£0.2m	-£6,620	+£4,855	+£25,910
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	-£24	+£0	-£10	-£14	-£22
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	-£3,209	-£3,269	-£4,435	-£2,309	-£4,486
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	+£280	-£439	+£264	suppressed	suppressed
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	-£822	-£37	+£1,070	+£402	+£221
Raise additional rate by 3pp	-£783	-£565	-£499	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	-£289	-£954	-£465	-£265	-£572
Raise the State Pension by 10%	+£0.5m	+£0.2m	+£0.6m	+£0.2m	+£0.8m

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	-£49,964	-£46,604	-£45,784	-£25,635	-£69,234
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	-£4,197	-£7,463	-£6,459	-£3,176	-£8,448
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	-£56,172	-£0.2m	-£20,449	+£9,712	+£17,644
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	+£3,005	+£3,502	+£4,517	+£2,628	+£5,145
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	-£265	-£587	-£817	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	+£293	+£951	+£459	+£267	+£578
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	-£0.6m	-£0.7m	-£0.7m	-£0.3m	-£0.9m

Household net income by decile

Every decile's mean change rounds to £0 in every year.

No change in any year: population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,888,684 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,777,260 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,727,917 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 92 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main `2da212abcf`	uk 2.170.0 (files `e654eb5f6f55`), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	`77aac721ac5e`	`7cb61324a46b`	2106.92s
head	#2751 merged into main `6b142ec78a`	uk 2.170.0 (files `59fe0b6f9fd5`), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	`77aac721ac5e`	`7cb61324a46b`	2161.41s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Income tax	£294.46bn	£315.23bn	£335.82bn	£351.28bn	£366.96bn	£385.36bn	£400.00bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£51.70bn	£54.14bn	£56.13bn	£57.73bn	£59.76bn	£61.64bn	£63.51bn
National Insurance (employer)	£148.71bn	£155.37bn	£160.88bn	£165.09bn	£172.06bn	£177.36bn	£182.57bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.60bn	£13.15bn	£13.60bn	£14.11bn	£14.67bn	£15.24bn	£15.80bn
Student loan repayments	£7.82bn	£8.13bn	£8.39bn	£8.58bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.29bn
VAT excluding private school fees	£249.37bn	£256.87bn	£266.33bn	£272.70bn	£278.97bn	£285.24bn	£291.59bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£1.95bn	£2.01bn	£2.09bn	£2.14bn	£2.20bn	£2.26bn	£2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.71bn	£24.13bn	£26.00bn	£26.83bn	£26.51bn	£25.78bn	£24.63bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.26bn	£4.40bn	£4.41bn	£4.42bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.45bn
Council tax	£49.21bn	£52.16bn	£54.89bn	£57.95bn	£61.16bn	£64.47bn	£67.91bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.63bn	£0.66bn	£0.69bn	£0.72bn
Business rates	£34.68bn	£36.20bn	£38.00bn	£39.46bn	£42.27bn	£43.25bn	£44.29bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.88bn	£7.32bn	£7.66bn	£8.06bn	£8.47bn	£8.91bn	£9.35bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£4.72bn	£4.57bn	£5.29bn	£6.03bn	£6.37bn	£6.92bn	£7.45bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.07bn	£0.08bn	£0.08bn	£0.09bn	£0.10bn	£0.10bn	£0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.38bn	£0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
State Pension	£121.68bn	£125.92bn	£126.72bn	£129.49bn	£132.99bn	£136.66bn	£140.42bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.03bn	£7.29bn	£7.48bn	£7.60bn	£7.84bn	£8.03bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.86bn	£1.85bn	£1.79bn	£1.77bn	£1.78bn	£1.78bn	£1.78bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.48bn	£80.52bn	£82.95bn	£84.96bn	£86.11bn	£87.61bn	£88.21bn
Housing Benefit	£8.56bn	£8.89bn	£9.23bn	£9.46bn	£9.69bn	£9.99bn	£10.27bn
Council Tax Reduction	£2.07bn	£2.20bn	£2.31bn	£2.45bn	£2.58bn	£2.72bn	£2.86bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£0.79bn	£0.82bn	£0.84bn	£0.86bn	£0.88bn	£0.90bn	£0.92bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.20bn	£5.37bn	£5.56bn	£5.69bn	£5.82bn	£5.95bn	£6.09bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn
Income Support	£0.11bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£26.95bn	£28.03bn	£29.05bn	£30.09bn	£30.75bn	£31.51bn	£32.21bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.49bn	£7.79bn	£8.07bn	£8.36bn	£8.55bn	£8.76bn	£8.95bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.68bn	£9.03bn	£9.36bn	£9.69bn	£9.90bn	£10.15bn	£10.38bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.48bn	£4.66bn	£4.83bn	£5.00bn	£5.11bn	£5.27bn	£5.42bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.68bn	£0.69bn	£0.71bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.19bn	£16.82bn	£17.39bn	£18.00bn	£18.39bn	£18.84bn	£19.25bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.49bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.30bn	£3.41bn	£3.54bn	£3.62bn	£3.70bn	£3.78bn	£3.87bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.12bn	£1.16bn	£1.20bn	£1.23bn	£1.26bn	£1.29bn	£1.32bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.71bn	£0.73bn	£0.75bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.99bn	£3.50bn	£3.59bn	£3.71bn	£3.78bn	£3.86bn	£3.93bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.06bn	£2.22bn	£2.29bn	£2.37bn	£2.43bn	£2.48bn	£2.53bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Childcare Offer for Wales	£0.26bn	£0.28bn	£0.28bn	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£203.89bn	£204.30bn	£204.56bn	£204.91bn	£205.34bn	£205.85bn	£206.35bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.05bn	£25.10bn	£25.14bn	£25.18bn	£25.23bn	£25.30bn	£25.36bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Household Energy Payment	£0.00bn	£2.11bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
State Pension	11,264k	11,145k	10,819k	10,700k	10,723k	10,750k	10,776k
Pension Credit	1,486k	1,480k	1,472k	1,452k	1,450k	1,455k	1,464k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,844k	7,783k	7,473k	7,375k	7,391k	7,409k	7,427k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	803k	802k	800k	797k	799k	801k	802k
Universal Credit	6,342k	6,347k	6,336k	6,297k	6,292k	6,271k	6,223k
Housing Benefit	1,249k	1,245k	1,244k	1,227k	1,227k	1,229k	1,232k
Council Tax Reduction	3,176k	3,195k	3,200k	3,214k	3,224k	3,235k	3,242k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	719k	720k	721k	722k	724k	726k	728k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	67k	67k	67k	68k	68k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,567k	3,575k	3,579k	3,585k	3,593k	3,602k	3,611k
Disability Living Allowance	1,291k	1,294k	1,296k	1,298k	1,300k	1,304k	1,307k
Attendance Allowance	1,695k	1,698k	1,700k	1,703k	1,707k	1,711k	1,715k
Carer's Allowance	1,034k	1,037k	1,038k	1,040k	1,042k	1,060k	1,062k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	137k	137k	138k	138k	138k	139k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	93k	93k	94k	94k	94k	94k	94k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,123k	8,120k	8,120k	8,130k	8,145k	8,161k	8,178k
Scottish Child Payment	351k	352k	352k	353k	350k	348k	337k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	200k	200k	201k	201k	201k	202k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	333k	333k	334k	334k	335k	336k	337k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	181k	182k	182k	182k	182k	183k	183k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k
Widowed Parent's Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,043k	1,027k	1,014k	1,009k	1,011k	1,009k	993k
Extended childcare entitlement	795k	800k	796k	797k	798k	798k	792k
Universal childcare entitlement	1,071k	1,072k	1,072k	1,073k	1,076k	1,079k	1,074k
Targeted childcare entitlement	165k	156k	154k	154k	155k	155k	150k
Childcare Offer for Wales	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	99k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	12k	12k	12k	12k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Household Energy Payment	0k	21,065k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£892.00bn	£934.66bn	£980.50bn	£1,015.93bn	£1,054.24bn	£1,091.56bn	£1,124.89bn
Government spending	£529.38bn †	£545.66bn †	£550.77bn †	£559.51bn †	£567.20bn †	£575.95bn †	£583.60bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£362.62bn †	£389.00bn †	£429.74bn †	£456.42bn †	£487.04bn †	£515.61bn †	£541.29bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£892.00bn	£934.66bn	£980.50bn	£1,015.93bn	£1,054.24bn	£1,091.56bn	£1,124.89bn
household_tax	£491.97bn	£520.41bn	£551.21bn	£576.01bn	£601.00bn	£626.70bn	£648.42bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£484.15bn	£512.28bn	£542.82bn	£566.95bn	£591.72bn	£617.16bn	£638.61bn
gov_spending	£529.38bn †	£545.66bn †	£550.77bn †	£559.51bn †	£567.20bn †	£575.95bn †	£583.60bn †
household_benefits	£529.38bn †	£545.66bn †	£550.77bn †	£559.51bn †	£567.20bn †	£575.95bn †	£583.60bn †
gov_balance	£362.62bn †	£389.00bn †	£429.74bn †	£456.42bn †	£487.04bn †	£515.61bn †	£541.29bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,637.96bn	£1,702.77bn	£1,757.35bn	£1,806.41bn	£1,855.97bn	£1,912.43bn	£1,970.44bn
Household net income	£1,636.69bn †	£1,687.82bn †	£1,715.45bn †	£1,747.49bn †	£1,778.69bn †	£1,817.02bn †	£1,859.69bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,449.57bn	£1,499.83bn	£1,530.86bn	£1,565.17bn	£1,597.89bn	£1,635.60bn	£1,676.61bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,245k	69,383k	69,473k	69,592k	69,738k	69,912k	70,080k
Benefit units	35,110k	35,181k	35,226k	35,286k	35,360k	35,449k	35,534k
Households	31,046k	31,108k	31,149k	31,201k	31,267k	31,345k	31,420k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.3%	15.5%	16.4%	16.3%	16.5%	16.5%	16.6%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.7%	22.1%	23.3%	22.9%	23.1%	23.2%	23.5%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.1%	13.8%	14.7%	14.7%	14.8%	14.8%	15.0%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.4%	14.0%	13.8%	13.9%	13.9%	13.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.6%	21.0%	22.0%	22.6%	22.9%	23.1%	23.4%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.3%	31.3%	32.3%	32.5%	32.9%	33.4%	34.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.8%	21.6%	21.9%	22.0%	22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.7%	12.4%	13.2%	13.2%	13.3%	13.4%	13.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.0%	16.0%	16.4%	16.3%	16.4%	16.3%	16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.9%	22.9%	23.3%	22.9%	23.0%	22.9%	23.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.5%	14.1%	14.6%	14.7%	14.7%	14.7%	15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.5%	14.0%	13.9%	13.8%	13.8%	13.9%	13.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.4%	21.0%	21.3%	21.3%	21.3%	21.5%	21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.1%	31.1%	31.2%	31.0%	31.1%	31.2%	31.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.2%	20.4%	20.5%	20.6%	20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.5%	12.4%	12.2%	11.7%	11.7%	11.8%	12.0%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,278k	10,779k	11,402k	11,365k	11,476k	11,513k	11,651k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,688k	3,314k	3,496k	3,445k	3,480k	3,502k	3,549k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,965k	5,893k	6,308k	6,362k	6,420k	6,430k	6,521k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,624k	1,572k	1,598k	1,558k	1,576k	1,580k	1,581k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,944k	14,600k	15,310k	15,721k	15,937k	16,141k	16,426k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,975k	4,682k	4,837k	4,888k	4,945k	5,040k	5,179k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,463k	8,461k	8,971k	9,344k	9,491k	9,584k	9,706k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,506k	1,457k	1,502k	1,490k	1,501k	1,517k	1,542k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,750k	11,084k	11,388k	11,364k	11,416k	11,415k	11,651k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,872k	3,423k	3,496k	3,445k	3,466k	3,454k	3,549k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,159k	6,013k	6,301k	6,362k	6,389k	6,389k	6,521k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,720k	1,648k	1,590k	1,557k	1,562k	1,572k	1,581k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,849k	14,552k	14,776k	14,809k	14,874k	15,014k	15,234k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,942k	4,660k	4,673k	4,663k	4,679k	4,707k	4,806k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,426k	8,440k	8,711k	8,823k	8,873k	8,967k	9,062k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,482k	1,452k	1,392k	1,323k	1,322k	1,339k	1,365k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3080	0.3052	0.3058	0.3058	0.3063	0.3069	0.3085

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,681 †	£17,997 †	£17,915 †	£18,152 †	£18,307 †	£18,531 †	£18,717 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£27,939 †	£29,023 †	£28,711 †	£29,013 †	£29,276 †	£29,691 †	£30,150 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,320 †	£35,485 †	£36,073 †	£36,611 †	£37,197 †	£37,737 †	£38,187 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£38,933 †	£40,687 †	£41,723 †	£42,727 †	£43,334 †	£44,132 †	£44,432 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,239 †	£45,567 †	£46,014 †	£46,959 †	£47,712 †	£48,584 †	£50,282 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,927 †	£49,210 †	£50,892 †	£51,939 †	£52,945 †	£53,942 †	£54,680 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£55,662 †	£56,571 †	£57,442 †	£57,670 †	£58,729 †	£59,657 †	£61,082 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£68,789 †	£70,803 †	£71,858 †	£73,466 †	£73,880 †	£75,320 †	£77,178 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£78,890 †	£81,013 †	£80,861 †	£82,646 †	£85,464 †	£86,946 †	£89,509 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,005 †	£120,339 †	£124,742 †	£126,632 †	£125,971 †	£128,600 †	£130,938 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.41bn	£6.66bn	£6.63bn	£6.85bn	£7.03bn	£7.25bn	£7.49bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.61bn	£3.87bn	£4.00bn	£4.22bn	£4.44bn	£4.71bn	£4.83bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.80bn	£-3.92bn	£-3.98bn	£-4.04bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.23bn	£-1.95bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-1.99bn	£-1.75bn	£-1.55bn	£-1.38bn	£-1.30bn	£-1.18bn	£-1.07bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.77bn	£-21.32bn	£-21.75bn	£-21.99bn	£-22.34bn	£-22.75bn	£-22.94bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£10.89bn	£11.30bn	£11.71bn	£12.01bn	£12.31bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£24.89bn	£25.71bn	£26.63bn	£27.24bn	£27.87bn	£28.50bn	£29.14bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.90bn	£3.15bn	£3.22bn	£3.41bn	£3.61bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.06bn	£-3.18bn	£-3.26bn	£-3.35bn	£-3.44bn	£-3.49bn	£-3.50bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.78bn	£-8.01bn	£-8.24bn	£-8.47bn	£-8.82bn	£-8.55bn	£-8.89bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.55bn	£6.86bn	£6.79bn	£7.00bn	£7.20bn	£7.44bn	£7.66bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.61bn	£3.92bn	£4.01bn	£4.23bn	£4.45bn	£4.72bn	£4.84bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.93bn	£-4.07bn	£-4.13bn	£-4.18bn	£-4.22bn	£-4.40bn	£-1.75bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.33bn	£2.14bn	£1.94bn	£1.76bn	£1.65bn	£1.52bn	£1.40bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.74bn	£21.31bn	£21.78bn	£22.04bn	£22.37bn	£22.78bn	£22.99bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.15bn	£11.63bn	£12.00bn	£12.29bn	£12.61bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£24.69bn	£25.51bn	£26.42bn	£27.03bn	£27.65bn	£28.28bn	£28.91bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.90bn	£3.15bn	£3.22bn	£3.42bn	£3.62bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.06bn	£3.19bn	£3.28bn	£3.37bn	£3.43bn	£3.49bn	£3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.68bn	£11.17bn	£11.28bn	£11.60bn	£12.03bn	£12.47bn	£12.97bn

A 3.9% triple lock for April 2028 takes the new State Pension to £273.675 exactly in April 2030. The model gives £273.70, and an index stored to five decimal places would give £273.65, so a new test covers both the halves-up convention and the index's precision. Another test checks that a rate a reform states for a year stays as stated. The earnings-path guarantee holds for the uprating percentages; the weekly rate then rounds to the nearest 5p, which s.150A(4) allows below the minimum (April 2019: £168.6231 became £168.60). Its test now checks the percentages and the cash chain exactly, not a 5-dp tolerance. The rounding parameter's documentation now names the reform routes that move it, and both it and the projection step say halves up is a convention: no published rate has landed on a half. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

£273.675 is 5,473.5 units of 5p, which both rules round up, so the tie test also checks £273.725 (5,474.5 units), which halves up takes to £273.75 and halves to even would take down. The rounding parameter's documentation now names only the reforms checked to move it: whole fiscal years set through a reform dictionary or parameter changes. General uprating on main sat within a third of a penny of the unrounded chain through 2039, not 0.1p. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

main added add_energy_price_indices after create_economic_assumption_indices. Both steps now run, in main's order, with project_state_pension_rates after the energy price indices and before the Pension Credit projection. Neither step reads what the other generates. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

The full new State Pension for 2027-28 is now 250.70 a week, so the allowance's threshold is 13,036.40, HM Treasury's explainer figure. Jonathan and the Scottish taper case get 44, the taper ends at 13,318.40, and in 2028-29 the threshold is 13,478.40 (259.20 a week), so the full allowance is 182. The variable's documentation drops the unrounded 13,036.97. This applies the patch in #2719's comment 6503688653, with the documentation hunk's context moved to step_6_tax_reductions, as main now names it. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Invariant 3 of test_dwp_published_rates expected the unrounded product of the 2026-27 rate and the triple lock index's growth, so it failed for both State Pension rates on this branch's CI. Those two rates now round to the nearest gov.dwp.state_pension.weekly_rate_rounding, as each Up-rating Order rounds them: 241.30 x 1.039 = 250.7107 gives 250.70, and 184.90 x 1.039 = 192.1111 gives 192.10. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

With #2719 the Pension Tax Allowance applies from 2027-28, so the full new State Pension's 13,036.40 bears 93.28 of tax at Step 5 (20% x 466.40), the explainer's figure for Steph without the allowance, and the allowance then removes all of it: income_tax is 0. The test asserted 93.28 of income_tax. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

With #2719 on main, the allowance's threshold is 52 weeks of the full new State Pension, so it moves to 13,036.40 in 2027-28, and the full allowance for 2028-29 falls from 183 to 182. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

The uprating section said later years are uprated by the triple lock index. create_rate_projection now raises each April's rate from the year before by that index's growth and rounds it to the nearest 5p, as the Up-rating Orders round the full rates (Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2020/234, paragraph 7.17). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 29, 2026 12:25

MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 29, 2026

Autumn Budget 2026 measures in current law #2719

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MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 31, 2026

Derive economic assumption index horizon from the growth series #2756

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Round projected State Pension weekly rates to the nearest 5p each April - #2751

Round projected State Pension weekly rates to the nearest 5p each April#2751
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What

The rule and its sources

How

Invariants (all tested)

Impact

CI aggregate impact (certified Enhanced FRS 2024-25, main vs this branch)

Pension Tax Allowance under #2719 (in-engine), certified Enhanced FRS 2024-25

Pension Tax Allowance on the Budget dashboard's basis

Interaction with #2719

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Notes

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Receipts by tax head

Spending by benefit and service

Caseloads

Government balance, each component counted once

Model totals

Household income totals

Poverty rates

People in poverty

Inequality

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

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Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

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