Skip to content

Model the 25p State Pension age addition at 80 - #2340

Open
MaxGhenis wants to merge 22 commits into
mainfrom
sp-age-addition-2139
Open

Model the 25p State Pension age addition at 80#2340
MaxGhenis wants to merge 22 commits into
mainfrom
sp-age-addition-2139

Conversation

@MaxGhenis

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 11, 2026 •
edited
Loading

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Collaborator

Fixes #2139

Built on #2336 (fixes #1941), which merged to main on 21 Oct (6a674987b). Both change how the reported State Pension is split, so this branch was built on #2336's head; with #2336 on main, this PR's diff against main is its own change only.

What and why

The 25p a week age addition at 80 was not modelled. The survey's reported State Pension includes it for basic State Pension recipients over 80, and the model booked that 25p as additional pension, uprated it each year, and never paid it to anyone who turned 80 in a later year. This PR models it as the law sets it: a fixed 25p a week, never uprated, for a person over 80 on a retirement pension under the 1992 Act.

Law

  • SSCBA 1992 s.79(1): "A person who is over the age of 80 and entitled to a retirement pension of any category under this Act shall be entitled to an increase of the pension, to be known as 'age addition'."
  • s.79(3) and Sch 4 Part III para 8: £0.25 a week.
  • s.173: a person is over an age once they have attained it, so the test is age ≥ 80.
  • The words "under this Act" in s.79(1) were inserted by the Pensions Act 2014 Sch 12 para 85. A new State Pension is paid under Part 1 of the 2014 Act, so it gets no age addition.
  • Never uprated: each Up-rating Order excludes it (SI 2026/148 art 3(2)(a)).
  • Income: Pension Credit counts it as retirement pension income (SPCA 2002 s.16(1)(e)), as do Universal Credit (UC Regs 2013 regs 66(1)(a), 67) and pension-age Housing Benefit (HB (SPC) Regs 2006 reg 29(1)(c)). It is taxed with the pension it increases (ITEPA 2003 s.577 names the SSCBA retirement pensions; s.677 does not exempt the addition).
  • Overlapping benefits:
    • Carer's Allowance: an age addition is adjusted only by reference to another age addition (SI 1979/597 reg 4(3); Sch 1 row 4, "except any age addition"), so it never reduces Carer's Allowance.
    • Carer Support Payment (Scotland): SSI 2023/302 reg 16(3)(a) and (6) overlap it with a Retirement Pension, "a pension payable under Part II and Part III of the 1992 Act, excluding any additional pension or graduated retirement benefit". The age addition is in Part III and is not excluded, so it does reduce Carer Support Payment.

Change

  • Parameters gov.dwp.state_pension.age_addition.amount (£0.25 a week from 1992, no uprating) and .age (80).
  • state_pension_age_addition (Person, year): the weekly amount × WEEKS_IN_YEAR for a person aged 80 or over (age read on 6 October, as for State Pension age) with a BASIC State Pension type and either a reported State Pension in the data year or a basic or additional State Pension in the year. Otherwise 0.
  • state_pension_reported_excluding_age_addition: the reported amount less the data year's legislated addition, floored at 0. basic_state_pension, new_state_pension and additional_state_pension now split this amount, so the addition is neither counted twice nor uprated as additional pension.
  • state_pension adds state_pension_age_addition. Pension Credit, UC, HB, CTR and gov_spending all read state_pension, so they count it once.
  • overlapping_state_pension (Carer's Allowance) leaves the addition out, as before. New carer_support_payment_overlapping_state_pension keeps it in, and Carer Support Payment's overlapping-benefit list now uses it. The two share one helper.
  • Docs: the State Pension page's Components section, the two edges below, and the "What's been fixed" table.

Edges, documented:

  • A basic recipient over 80 whose reported amount is below the addition (under 25p a week) is paid £13 a year, more than they reported. The data-year identity below is stated for reports of at least 25p a week.
  • The contributed gov.contrib.cec.state_pension_increase reform scales state_pension as a whole, age addition included, although no Up-rating Order raises it.

Out of scope: the Category D retirement pension (s.78(3)), tracked in #2339.

Tests

  • policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/state_pension_age_addition.yaml: £13 at 80; none at 79; none on a new State Pension at 85; none below State Pension age; the same £13 in 2025, 2026 and 2030; a reported full basic rate plus 25p gives the full basic rate, no additional pension, and the addition.
  • carer_support_payment_overlapping_benefits.yaml Case 6: at 80 with £2,000 basic and £5,000 additional State Pension, the Carer Support Payment overlap is £2,013 and the payment £86.45 × 52 − £2,013, while the Carer's Allowance overlap stays £2,000. Case 6a: at 79, £2,000.
  • test_state_pension_components.py: dataset-built cases and Hypothesis properties (below).
  • test_carer_overlapping_benefits_properties.py: the Carer Support Payment reference overlap now includes the age addition (and Carer's Allowance's still leaves it out). Its explicit example of a Scottish carer aged 80 fails by £13 with the old shared reference and passes with the split one. A second explicit example, a reported old State Pension of £3,000 for a Scottish carer aged 80, pins the payable Carer Support Payment in reported mode: £2,987 + £13 overlaps, so the payment is £4,495.40 − £3,000. With the reference's reported-mode addition removed from the Carer Support Payment overlap, both reported examples fail by £13 (the Welsh one already checks the overlap, which is computed for everyone; the new one also checks the payment).

Fail on the base (#2336's head fa27e4948), pass on this head: with only this PR's test files copied into a detached #2336 tree, the three YAML files give 17 failed and 31 passed, and test_state_pension_components.py gives 12 failed and 21 passed (5 min 57 s, -n 4). The failures are the age addition cases and the dataset-built cases where an over-80 basic recipient's 25p is still split as additional pension. Three of them error because the new variable or parameters do not exist on the base. Logs: ~/reviews/w7-uk-defects-2026-10-11/impact/r2/fob-2340-{yaml,py}.log. On this head all 48 YAML cases and the four carer overlap properties pass, and CI runs the full suite.

Invariants (property tests)

  • In the data year, with no reform, basic + additional + new + age addition equals the reported amount for every record over State Pension age with a type and a reported amount of at least 25p a week. This is a differential against the model without the addition.
  • The addition is 0 or exactly the fixed amount, and constant across years.
  • It is 0 for NEW and NONE types and under 80.
  • Reforms to the 25p do not move the other components, because the reported amount is split at the legislated amount.

Impact on the certified pair

Real Microsimulation runs on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 from policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1 (sha256 056e80fd8e91…, the dataset in policyengine.py's certified UK bundle). Base: #2336 at fa27e4948 (so the table is this PR's own effect). Head: this PR at 9ace2cafd. Both trees clean.

£m change 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31
additional_state_pension -33.67 -34.48 -35.93 -36.82 -37.74 -38.67 -39.62
basic_state_pension -12.20 -12.79 -13.46 -14.03 -14.44 -14.87 -15.31
new_state_pension +0.00 +0.00 +0.00 +0.00 +0.00 +0.00 +0.00
state_pension_age_addition +45.87 +46.20 +46.37 +46.55 +46.73 +46.94 +47.15
state_pension +0.00 -1.08 -3.01 -4.31 -5.46 -6.60 -7.78
pension_credit -0.00 +0.28 +0.70 +0.99 +1.24 +1.48 +1.72
housing_benefit +0.00 +0.00 +0.01 +0.01 +0.02 +0.02 +0.03
universal_credit +0.00 – – – – – –
council_tax_reduction +0.00 +0.00 +0.01 +0.01 +0.01 +0.01 +0.02
income_tax -0.00 -0.11 -0.38 -0.55 -0.76 -0.95 -1.21
household_net_income +0.00 – – – – – –
gov_tax -0.00 – – – – – –
gov_spending +0.00 – – – – – –
gov_balance – – – – – – –
Records changed 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
additional_state_pension 6356 6356 6356 6356 6356 6356 6356
basic_state_pension 1314 1314 1314 1314 1314 1314 1314
new_state_pension 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
state_pension_age_addition 7666 7666 7666 7666 7666 7666 7666
state_pension 0 7666 7666 7666 7666 7666 7666
pension_credit 0 630 637 628 627 626 626
housing_benefit 0 61 56 61 59 59 59
universal_credit 0 2 2 2 2 2 2
council_tax_reduction 0 182 184 184 182 187 193
income_tax 0 5792 5959 6070 6185 6252 6322
household_net_income 7 6019 6020 6037 6045 6054 6059
gov_tax 0 5213 5349 5440 5534 5591 5655
gov_spending 0 6096 6110 6129 6138 6147 6159
gov_balance 1 6016 6020 6038 6042 6049 6055

state_pension_age_addition 2030-31: head total £47.15m; weighted recipients 3,626,819
state_pension_age_addition 2024-25: head total £45.87m; weighted recipients 3,528,325

  • The addition: £45.9m in 2024-25, 3.53m weighted recipients (basic State Pension, 80 or over) × £13. It stays £13 a head, so the total moves only with the number of recipients.
  • Data year (2024-25): state_pension does not change. The 25p each recipient reported moves from additional pension (and, for partial pensions below the full basic rate, from basic State Pension) to the addition.
  • Later years: state_pension falls £1.1m in 2025-26 and £7.8m in 2030-31, because that 25p was previously uprated each year, as additional pension (£33.7m of it, by September CPI) or, for partial pensions below the full basic rate, as basic State Pension (£12.2m, by the triple lock), and is now fixed. Pension Credit rises slightly and income tax falls slightly.
  • Disclosure: Universal Credit changes for two dataset records each year, so this table withholds it, and the totals it could be recovered from (gov_spending, gov_balance, household_net_income, and gov_tax). In 2024-25 gov_balance changes for one record by rounding. Poverty rates do not move (0.000pp where shown).
  • The CI "Aggregate impact on certified data" comments print sub-£1m cells at their own precision. Those up to 20 Oct compared against main before Uprate additional State Pension and protected payments by September CPI #2336 merged, so they show Uprate additional State Pension and protected payments by CPI, not the flat rate #1941 and State Pension age addition (25p a week at 80, SSCBA 1992 s.79) is not modelled #2139 together; their State Pension line is that main→this head (e.g. −£353.8m in 2025-26, against −£352.7m for Uprate additional State Pension and protected payments by September CPI #2336 alone).

Overlaps

Review

  • Independent reviews on Subfleet's hard review tier, each served by Opus 5.5 (the Codex lanes were closed; the run records name the serving model). The first, of 972564b0a: REQUEST_CHANGES. It found the Carer Support Payment overlap error (SSI 2023/302 reg 16(6)), fixed in f7e8df354, and the placeholder body, now replaced.
  • Its delta review of 9ace2cafd: REQUEST_CHANGES. The carer overlap property test still used one reference for both benefits and failed in CI. Fixed in bc81c8891 (test only). It also had wording notes, applied here.
  • Its delta review of bc81c8891: APPROVE, with two P3 notes: pin a reported-mode Scottish carer, and the CI-comment wording. Both applied in 8eb9a0af7 (one test example, plus this text).
  • GPT-6.1 Sol's delta review of 8eb9a0af7 (served on a Codex lane, per its run record): APPROVE, no P1 or P2. Its one P3 (Make Pension Credit and pension-age HB projections safe under reforms #2092 is no longer a draft) is applied in this text.

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#458 queued

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/state_pension_age_addition.yaml, policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/social_security_scotland/carer_support_payment_overlapping_benefits.yaml::Case 6, the additional pension in an old State Pension does not overlap; at 80 its age addition does (SSI 2023/302 reg 16(6))., policyengine_uk/tests/test_state_pension_components.py::test_full_basic_rate_plus_age_addition_is_never_additional_pension

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 11, 2026 13:41
@MaxGhenis @claude
Uprate additional State Pension and protected payments by September CPI
bcdee62 
The part of a reported State Pension above the type's full rate (additional
pension for the basic State Pension, protected payments for the new) was
uprated by the full rate's own triple-lock rise. Each Up-rating Order raises
it by September CPI instead (SSAA 1992 ss.150(1)(c), 151 and 151A; SI
2026/148 arts 4(3) and 6(3)(b): 3.8% against 4.8% for the full rates; SI
2025/295: 1.7% against 4.1%). Uprate it by
gov.economic_assumptions.indices.september_cpi_uprating from the data year,
read from the simulation's own parameters, so a reform to the full rates or
the triple lock no longer moves it and a price scenario does.

Fixes #1941.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Model the 25p State Pension age addition at 80
16f87a0 
SSCBA 1992 s.79(1) and (3) and Sch 4 Part III para 8 give a person over 80
who is entitled to a retirement pension under that Act 25p a week, which each
Up-rating Order leaves out (SI 2026/148 art 3(2)(a)). A new State Pension
does not count (s.79(1) as amended by the Pensions Act 2014 Sch 12 para 85).

Add gov.dwp.state_pension.age_addition (amount, age) and
state_pension_age_addition, and count it in state_pension. The survey's
State Pension amount is taken to include the addition, so
state_pension_reported_excluding_age_addition takes the data year's
legislated addition off before basic_state_pension, new_state_pension and
additional_state_pension split it: it is neither counted twice nor uprated
as additional pension. It never reduces a carer benefit (SI 1979/597 reg
4(3), Sch 1 row 4), so overlapping_state_pension leaves it out.

Fixes #2139.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 11, 2026
Open
MaxGhenis and others added 12 commits October 11, 2026 16:00
@MaxGhenis @claude
Compare float32 model output with a float32 tolerance; pass rate refo…
368ebb0 
…rms as a reform

CI found two test faults (run 38161065391): the differential against main's
formula compared the model's float32 arrays with a float64 reference at
rtol 1e-12, which fails for any reported amount float32 cannot hold exactly
(e.g. £169.00 a week, aged 98); and a Scenario cannot take the reform
dictionary's "2026-01-01.2100-12-31" period, so that case passes it as a
reform.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Read age addition entitlement from the components as well; update car…
f4e18b1 
…er overlap tests

A simulation given basic or additional State Pension directly, with no
reported amount, now gets the age addition at 80 too. The carer overlap
tests' 80-year-olds report amounts that include the 25p: it moves from
additional pension to the age addition, and in case 8 it no longer reduces
Carer's Allowance (SI 1979/597 reg 4(3); Sch 1 row 4).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge #2336's test fix into the age addition branch
899ca10 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Check the data-year identity with the float32 tolerance
1027203 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Separate the CPI scenario test from the triple lock; note the impact …
15bb98d 
…in the docs

At 5% September CPI the triple lock also rose 5%, so the scenario test passed
on main. At 1%, below the triple lock's 2.5% floor, the add-on rises 1% and
the full rates at least 2.5%. The docs record the change in the model's State
Pension against DWP's forecast, from full runs on the certified dataset.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main into asp-cpi-uprating-1941
4b9264f 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main into the age addition branch
528b8a8 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Compare the age addition with the reported amount the model holds; ex…
5234997 
…pect none on a new State Pension

CI run 38170838155 failed three of the age addition tests. None was a model
defect:

- The two components-add-up properties drew a weekly amount of 8.3e-246
  (and 2.2e-313). state_pension_reported is a float variable, stored in
  float32, so the simulation holds it as nil and rightly pays no age
  addition; the reference read the float64 draw and expected 25p. The
  reference now reads each report as the simulation holds it, and the two
  CI examples (and a tiny amount float32 does hold) are pinned as
  examples.
- The age addition reform test expected £10 a week for both records in
  2030-31. Held at 77, the second record is on the new State Pension by
  then, and the age addition belongs only to a retirement pension under
  the 1992 Act (s.79(1)), reformed or not. The test now asserts each
  year's type and expects the addition only on the basic State Pension.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge #2336 (asp-cpi-uprating-1941 at 4b9264f) into the age addition …
0e2d7ac 
…branch

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main into asp-cpi-uprating-1941
2fd0c7a 
Keep the September CPI uprating in additional_state_pension: main's
np.divide guard (00c07d6) was on the full-rate ratio this branch replaces.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Say precisely why the model taxes the age addition with the pension
03adbc9 
ITEPA 2003 s.577(2) lists the SSCBA 1992 retirement pension sections but not
s.79, so the docs now say the model taxes the age addition as part of the
pension it increases (s.79(1)), and that s.677 does not exempt it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @codex
Clarify the statutory uprating basis and forecast comparison
4a6b736 
Co-Authored-By: GPT-6 <noreply@openai.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 12, 2026
Merged
MaxGhenis and others added 6 commits October 20, 2026 17:38
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main (76cfc9e) into asp-cpi-uprating-1941
4e495b7 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge #2336 (asp-cpi-uprating-1941 at 4e495b7, carrying main 76cfc9e)…
972564b 
… into the age addition branch

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Count the age addition in the Carer Support Payment overlap
f7e8df3 
SSI 2023/302 reg 16(3)(a) and (6) overlap Carer Support Payment with a
Retirement Pension "payable under Part II and Part III of the 1992 Act,
excluding any additional pension or graduated retirement benefit". The age
addition (SSCBA 1992 s.79, Part III) is not excluded, unlike for Carer's
Allowance (SI 1979/597 reg 4(3)). Split the overlap into
overlapping_state_pension (Carer's Allowance, unchanged) and
carer_support_payment_overlapping_state_pension, sharing one helper.
Correct CSP Case 6 to £2,013 and add the under-80 case. Document the two
edges the review named: a report below 25p a week, and the contributed
state_pension_increase reform scaling the addition.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Label the per-recipient growth as pre-fix; state the forecast-year fl…
f1b2909 
…oor and two simplifications

From the independent review of 4e495b7: the 17.0% per-recipient growth
came from runs before this fix; from April 2027 SSAA 1992 ss.150(2) and
151A(3) set a floor ("not less than" the rise in prices) that the model pays
exactly; contracted-out records and additional pension inside a partial
basic pension are simplified.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Drop an unverified contracted-out note from the State Pension docs
fa27e49 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge #2336 (asp-cpi-uprating-1941 at fa27e49) into the age addition …
9ace2ca 
…branch

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@github-actions

github-actions Bot commented Oct 20, 2026 •
edited
Loading

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Contributor

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 41fa5ddb52 against head 021fa0e754, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Receipts by tax head

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax -£0.1m -£0.4m -£0.6m -£0.9m -£1.0m -£1.3m -£3.2m
Capital gains tax -£68 -£290 -£533 -£725 -£919 -£1,035 -£2,986
TV licence fee 0 0 0 0 -£78,733 0 0

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension -£1.1m -£3.0m -£4.8m -£5.9m -£7.1m -£8.3m -£15.9m
Pension Credit +£0.3m +£0.7m +£1.1m +£1.4m +£1.6m +£1.9m +£2.8m
Universal Credit +£94 +£307 +£513 +£642 +£768 +£900 +£692
Housing Benefit +£2,826 +£8,716 +£14,547 +£17,929 +£21,466 +£25,903 +£42,142
Council Tax Reduction +£1,595 +£5,113 +£8,323 +£9,899 -£0.6m +£14,987 +£32,917
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Pension Credit 0 0 0 0 +437 0 0
Council Tax Reduction 0 0 0 0 -437 0 0
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once -£0.1m -£0.4m -£0.6m -£0.9m -£1.1m -£1.3m -£3.2m
Government spending -£0.8m † -£2.3m † -£3.7m † -£4.6m † -£6.1m † -£6.4m † -£13.0m †
Government balance, each receipt once +£0.7m † +£1.9m † +£3.0m † +£3.7m † +£5.0m † +£5.1m † +£9.8m †

Model totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax -£0.1m -£0.4m -£0.6m -£0.9m -£1.1m -£1.3m -£3.2m
household_tax -£0.1m -£0.4m -£0.6m -£0.9m -£1.1m -£1.3m -£3.2m
pre_budget_change_household_tax -£0.1m -£0.4m -£0.6m -£0.9m -£1.1m -£1.3m -£3.2m
gov_spending -£0.8m † -£2.3m † -£3.7m † -£4.6m † -£6.1m † -£6.4m † -£13.0m †
household_benefits -£0.8m † -£2.3m † -£3.7m † -£4.6m † -£6.1m † -£6.4m † -£13.0m †
gov_balance +£0.7m † +£1.9m † +£3.0m † +£3.7m † +£5.0m † +£5.1m † +£9.8m †

Household income totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household net income -£0.7m † -£1.9m † -£3.0m † -£3.7m † -£5.0m † -£5.1m † -£9.8m †
Household net income (HBAI definition) -£0.7m -£1.9m -£3.0m -£3.7m -£4.9m -£5.1m -£9.8m

Poverty rates

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 0 0 +0.00pp 0 0 0 +0.00pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 0 0 +0.01pp 0 0 0 +0.00pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 0 0 0 +0.00pp 0 +0.00pp +0.00pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 0 0 0 +0.00pp 0 +0.01pp +0.00pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 0 0 0 0 0 +0.00pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 0 0 0 0 0 0 +0.00pp

People in poverty

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 0 0 +1.6k 0 0 0 +100
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 0 0 +1.6k 0 0 0 +100
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 0 0 0 +238 0 +701 +25
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 0 0 0 +238 0 +701 +25
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 0 0 0 0 0 +566
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 0 0 0 0 0 0 +566

Inequality

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs +0.0000 +0.0000 +0.0000 +0.0000 +0.0000 +0.0000 +0.0000

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household -£0.03 † -£0.07 † -£0.11 † -£0.13 † -£0.15 † -£0.17 † -£0.25 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household -£0.05 † -£0.14 † -£0.22 † -£2.53 † -£0.31 † -£0.35 † -£0.67 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household -£0.04 † -£0.11 † -£0.17 † +£1.51 † -£0.29 † -£0.28 † -£0.33 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household -£0.02 † -£0.06 † -£0.10 † -£0.12 † -£0.06 † -£0.18 † -£0.46 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household -£0.02 † -£0.04 † -£0.07 † -£0.08 † -£0.29 † -£0.11 † -£2.00 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household -£0.02 † -£0.05 † -£0.08 † -£0.11 † -£0.13 † -£0.15 † +£1.64 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household -£0.01 † -£0.03 † -£0.05 † -£0.06 † -£0.08 † -£0.09 † -£0.07 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household -£0.01 † -£0.05 † -£0.10 † -£0.10 † -£0.12 † -£0.14 † -£0.26 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household -£0.01 † -£0.03 † -£0.03 † -£0.06 † -£0.07 † -£0.08 † -£0.14 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household -£0.01 † -£0.02 † -£0.03 † -£0.04 † -£0.05 † -£0.06 † -£0.15 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp -£4,589 -£12,297 -£19,650 -£27,446 -£0.6m -£40,356 -£86,861
Raise higher rate by 1pp -£375 -£1,077 -£1,849 -£2,490 -£2,983 -£3,730 -£14,382
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year +£2,915 +£12,986 +£79 +£80,949 -£0.5m +£56,696 -£53,269
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child 0 -£3 -£24 +£11 +£7 +£3 +£10
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% +£6 +£7 -£13 +£0 -£8 +£13 -£8
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% +£33 +£32 -£22 -£56 -£15 -£14 -£78
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp -£313 -£116 +£436 -£156 -£190 +£258 +£210
Raise additional rate by 3pp -£16 -£180 -£79 -£147 -£159 suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% +£11 +£2 -£4 -£5 +£7 +£12 -£2,185
Raise the State Pension by 10% +£0.7m +£0.7m +£0.7m +£0.8m +£0.2m +£0.9m +£1.1m

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax -£4,542 -£13,293 -£22,559 -£30,510 -£36,010 -£45,450 -£94,867
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax -£393 -£1,086 -£1,831 -£2,439 -£2,992 -£3,638 -£14,340
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax +£3,622 +£33,778 +£9,115 +£84,572 +£48,357 +£72,556 +£18,962
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit 0 0 +£0 +£0 -£0 +£0 0
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax -£12 -£146 -£87 -£121 -£141 suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit 0 +£0 -£0 0 0 0 +£2,182
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension -£1.3m -£1.3m -£1.4m -£1.4m -£1.5m -£1.5m -£1.9m

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -£1 (-0.0%)
Decile 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
all 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Year People gaining over £1 People losing over £1
2025-26 0.0% 0.0%
2026-27 0.0% 1.5%
2027-28 0.0% 2.2%
2028-29 0.0% 4.4%
2029-30 0.0% 5.0%
2030-31 0.0% 5.2%
2031-32 0.0% 5.2%

No change in any year: population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,889,156 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,420,387 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,618,038 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 91 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 41fa5ddb52 uk 2.163.1 (files 6a573e7e11a1), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64 223421c191e6 1eac2ca06b91 1887.36s
head #2340 merged into main 021fa0e754 uk 2.163.1 (files 7474dc3af8bb), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64 223421c191e6 1eac2ca06b91 2038.12s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Income tax £298.70bn £318.31bn £335.60bn £350.52bn £365.79bn £383.53bn £401.03bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.37bn £54.71bn £56.48bn £58.15bn £60.22bn £62.11bn £64.44bn
National Insurance (employer) £150.59bn £156.99bn £161.74bn £166.13bn £173.24bn £178.59bn £185.29bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.61bn £13.05bn £13.53bn £14.02bn £14.52bn £15.05bn £15.58bn
Student loan repayments £7.91bn £8.21bn £8.43bn £8.63bn £8.85bn £9.10bn £9.42bn
VAT excluding private school fees £249.37bn £255.28bn £261.81bn £267.87bn £274.12bn £280.56bn £286.81bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £1.95bn £2.00bn £2.05bn £2.10bn £2.21bn £2.21bn £2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.26bn £4.41bn £4.42bn £4.44bn £4.45bn £4.47bn £4.48bn
Council tax £49.21bn £51.88bn £54.97bn £58.29bn £61.55bn £64.92bn £68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.63bn £0.66bn £0.69bn £0.72bn
Business rates £34.68bn £38.04bn £38.88bn £39.76bn £43.07bn £43.13bn £44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.90bn £7.39bn £7.81bn £8.21bn £8.62bn £9.02bn £9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.81bn £5.98bn £6.73bn £7.46bn £8.21bn £8.87bn £9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.07bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.37bn £0.38bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
State Pension £121.64bn £126.07bn £127.08bn £128.86bn £132.52bn £136.30bn £140.06bn
Pension Credit £6.66bn £7.04bn £7.32bn £7.46bn £7.60bn £7.77bn £7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.86bn £1.86bn £1.80bn £1.78bn £1.79bn £1.79bn £1.80bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.21bn £80.38bn £82.93bn £84.23bn £85.58bn £86.87bn £87.97bn
Housing Benefit £8.55bn £8.89bn £9.17bn £9.31bn £9.58bn £9.84bn £10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction £2.07bn £2.18bn £2.32bn £2.46bn £2.60bn £2.74bn £2.89bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.81bn £0.83bn £0.85bn £0.86bn £0.89bn £0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.20bn £5.34bn £5.46bn £5.59bn £5.72bn £5.85bn £5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.32bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.11bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £26.94bn £28.06bn £29.13bn £29.83bn £30.54bn £31.26bn £31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.49bn £7.80bn £8.10bn £8.29bn £8.49bn £8.69bn £8.88bn
Attendance Allowance £8.68bn £9.04bn £9.38bn £9.61bn £9.83bn £10.07bn £10.29bn
Carer's Allowance £4.48bn £4.67bn £4.84bn £4.96bn £5.08bn £5.19bn £5.31bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.68bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.16bn £16.83bn £17.43bn £17.85bn £18.26bn £18.69bn £19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.49bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.30bn £3.39bn £3.47bn £3.55bn £3.63bn £3.72bn £3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.12bn £1.15bn £1.18bn £1.21bn £1.24bn £1.27bn £1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.73bn £0.75bn £0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.59bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.99bn £3.50bn £3.60bn £3.67bn £3.77bn £3.85bn £3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.05bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.34bn £2.40bn £2.47bn £2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales £0.26bn £0.28bn £0.28bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £203.83bn £204.54bn £205.13bn £205.79bn £206.49bn £207.23bn £207.73bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.05bn £25.13bn £25.21bn £25.29bn £25.37bn £25.46bn £25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
State Pension 11,261k 11,158k 10,849k 10,746k 10,783k 10,822k 10,848k
Pension Credit 1,485k 1,483k 1,480k 1,461k 1,462k 1,464k 1,460k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,842k 7,793k 7,494k 7,407k 7,432k 7,459k 7,477k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 803k 803k 803k 800k 803k 806k 808k
Universal Credit 6,334k 6,341k 6,366k 6,347k 6,345k 6,333k 6,298k
Housing Benefit 1,249k 1,247k 1,250k 1,234k 1,238k 1,240k 1,239k
Council Tax Reduction 3,175k 3,198k 3,209k 3,229k 3,244k 3,257k 3,264k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 719k 721k 723k 726k 728k 731k 732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 68k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,566k 3,579k 3,589k 3,601k 3,613k 3,626k 3,635k
Disability Living Allowance 1,291k 1,295k 1,299k 1,303k 1,308k 1,312k 1,316k
Attendance Allowance 1,694k 1,700k 1,705k 1,711k 1,716k 1,723k 1,727k
Carer's Allowance 1,034k 1,038k 1,041k 1,044k 1,048k 1,051k 1,053k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 137k 138k 138k 139k 139k 140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 93k 93k 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,102k 8,128k 8,142k 8,165k 8,191k 8,216k 8,232k
Scottish Child Payment 350k 352k 353k 357k 354k 355k 342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 199k 200k 201k 201k 202k 203k 203k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 332k 334k 335k 336k 337k 338k 339k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 181k 182k 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,014k 1,024k 1,024k 1,027k 1,027k 1,031k 1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement 796k 801k 806k 809k 815k 819k 820k
Universal childcare entitlement 1,071k 1,074k 1,077k 1,080k 1,086k 1,096k 1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement 165k 156k 154k 155k 155k 156k 144k
Childcare Offer for Wales 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k 100k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 12k 12k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £898.82bn £941.86bn £980.11bn £1,013.84bn £1,052.89bn £1,089.01bn £1,129.10bn
Government spending £528.95bn † £543.83bn † £551.68bn † £558.06bn † £566.57bn † £575.31bn † £583.37bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £369.87bn † £398.03bn † £428.43bn † £455.78bn † £486.32bn † £513.70bn † £545.73bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £898.82bn £941.86bn £980.11bn £1,013.84bn £1,052.89bn £1,089.01bn £1,129.10bn
household_tax £496.91bn £527.60bn £554.51bn £577.74bn £603.32bn £627.65bn £654.68bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £489.00bn £519.39bn £546.08bn £568.63bn £593.98bn £618.05bn £644.75bn
gov_spending £528.95bn † £543.83bn † £551.68bn † £558.06bn † £566.57bn † £575.31bn † £583.37bn †
household_benefits £528.95bn † £543.83bn † £551.68bn † £558.06bn † £566.57bn † £575.31bn † £583.37bn †
gov_balance £369.87bn † £398.03bn † £428.43bn † £455.78bn † £486.32bn † £513.70bn † £545.73bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,651.49bn £1,713.03bn £1,764.05bn £1,812.97bn £1,862.19bn £1,918.39bn £1,985.28bn
Household net income £1,644.42bn † £1,688.69bn † £1,719.54bn † £1,750.61bn † £1,781.67bn † £1,821.07bn † £1,867.38bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,457.29bn £1,504.48bn £1,537.58bn £1,569.35bn £1,602.66bn £1,640.48bn £1,687.03bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,224k 69,466k 69,668k 69,891k 70,128k 70,381k 70,550k
Benefit units 35,100k 35,223k 35,325k 35,438k 35,558k 35,686k 35,772k
Households 31,037k 31,145k 31,236k 31,336k 31,442k 31,555k 31,631k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.0% 15.1% 15.4% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.0% 21.1% 21.3% 21.3% 21.5% 21.8% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.5% 13.9% 14.1% 14.1% 14.2% 14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.1% 13.4% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.4% 20.8% 21.3% 21.5% 21.7% 21.9% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.0% 30.7% 31.1% 31.1% 31.4% 31.7% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.2% 20.5% 20.7% 20.8% 21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.4% 12.3% 12.5% 12.8% 12.9% 13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.4% 16.5% 16.4% 16.2% 16.3% 16.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.2% 23.5% 23.4% 23.1% 22.6% 22.8% 23.1%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.4% 14.7% 14.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 21.0% 21.1% 21.2% 21.3% 21.4% 21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.3% 31.2% 30.8% 30.7% 31.0% 31.0% 31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.1% 20.3% 20.4% 20.5% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.9% 12.5% 12.1% 11.9% 11.8% 11.9% 12.8%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,057k 10,466k 10,736k 10,860k 10,960k 11,054k 11,081k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,580k 3,171k 3,210k 3,220k 3,261k 3,305k 3,317k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,853k 5,746k 6,021k 6,123k 6,169k 6,209k 6,219k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,625k 1,550k 1,505k 1,517k 1,530k 1,539k 1,545k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,847k 14,422k 14,808k 14,994k 15,242k 15,402k 15,638k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,937k 4,609k 4,671k 4,685k 4,757k 4,814k 4,912k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,406k 8,359k 8,732k 8,898k 9,024k 9,114k 9,240k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,504k 1,454k 1,404k 1,411k 1,460k 1,475k 1,486k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,896k 11,403k 11,468k 11,487k 11,373k 11,469k 11,652k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,918k 3,523k 3,519k 3,491k 3,419k 3,458k 3,516k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,202k 6,136k 6,338k 6,400k 6,366k 6,415k 6,515k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,776k 1,744k 1,611k 1,597k 1,588k 1,596k 1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,957k 14,597k 14,698k 14,825k 14,951k 15,042k 15,351k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,976k 4,677k 4,630k 4,634k 4,690k 4,712k 4,794k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,443k 8,455k 8,680k 8,847k 8,916k 8,977k 9,092k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,537k 1,465k 1,388k 1,344k 1,346k 1,354k 1,465k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3085 0.3059 0.3065 0.3071 0.3075 0.3081 0.3094
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,781 † £17,906 † £17,832 † £17,905 † £18,142 † £18,339 † £18,483 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £27,962 † £28,917 † £28,654 † £28,904 † £29,096 † £29,646 † £30,234 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,380 † £35,463 † £36,064 † £36,511 † £36,849 † £37,338 † £38,043 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,785 † £40,713 † £41,873 † £42,413 † £43,145 † £43,906 † £44,167 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,788 † £44,626 † £45,606 † £46,288 † £47,327 † £48,286 † £49,709 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,210 † £49,525 † £50,736 † £51,913 † £52,203 † £53,174 † £54,205 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,218 † £57,224 † £57,764 † £58,010 † £59,040 † £60,061 † £61,765 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,150 † £70,533 † £71,799 † £73,075 † £74,092 † £75,540 † £77,427 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,490 † £81,420 † £82,828 † £84,135 † £85,538 † £87,053 † £89,944 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,581 † £120,296 † £121,933 † £124,163 † £126,045 † £128,342 † £131,110 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.47bn £6.76bn £6.67bn £6.86bn £7.06bn £7.35bn £7.55bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.69bn £3.98bn £4.03bn £4.29bn £4.46bn £4.78bn £4.91bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.82bn £-3.94bn £-4.01bn £-4.09bn £-4.18bn £-4.18bn £-2.00bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-1.99bn £-1.75bn £-1.56bn £-1.46bn £-1.35bn £-1.23bn £-1.12bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.39bn £-20.96bn £-21.38bn £-21.61bn £-21.87bn £-22.17bn £-22.60bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.02bn £11.42bn £11.77bn £12.07bn £12.37bn £12.75bn £13.07bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £24.89bn £25.55bn £26.14bn £26.75bn £27.39bn £28.03bn £28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.65bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.05bn £-3.18bn £-3.30bn £-3.34bn £-3.38bn £-3.42bn £-3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.79bn £-8.02bn £-8.01bn £-8.12bn £-8.43bn £-8.54bn £-8.87bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.61bn £6.91bn £6.83bn £7.03bn £7.24bn £7.47bn £7.73bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.69bn £3.99bn £4.04bn £4.25bn £4.47bn £4.74bn £4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.95bn £-4.08bn £-4.17bn £-4.24bn £-4.34bn £-4.41bn £-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.33bn £2.14bn £1.95bn £1.84bn £1.73bn £1.62bn £1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.39bn £20.95bn £21.37bn £21.62bn £21.87bn £22.22bn £22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.28bn £11.74bn £12.06bn £12.37bn £12.69bn £13.03bn £13.49bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £24.69bn £25.35bn £25.94bn £26.54bn £27.17bn £27.81bn £28.43bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.05bn £3.18bn £3.29bn £3.36bn £3.43bn £3.48bn £3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.67bn £11.18bn £11.31bn £11.55bn £12.00bn £12.44bn £12.94bn

@MaxGhenis @claude
Give Carer Support Payment its own reference overlap in the carer pro…
bc81c88 
…perty test

From the independent delta review of 9ace2ca: the test rebuilt one
overlapping amount for both carer benefits and left the 25p age addition out
of it, so its explicit example of a Scottish carer aged 80 with basic and
additional State Pension failed by £13 once Carer Support Payment counted the
addition (SSI 2023/302 reg 16(6)). The reference now adds the age addition to
the Carer Support Payment overlap only, as the regulations do, and keeps it
out of Carer's Allowance (SI 1979/597 reg 4(3)).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
juaristi22
juaristi22 approved these changes Oct 24, 2026
View reviewed changes

@juaristi22 juaristi22 left a comment

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Collaborator

Choose a reason for hiding this comment

The reason will be displayed to describe this comment to others. Learn more.

Reviewed at bc81c88913d9430365e9c9ca03a122d4c4410dd2, using the PR’s own diff over #2336 at fa27e494826858baf2732cdb00efefad4941f2ea. No actionable findings from independent policy/source and code reviews.

Official GB and NI sources support the fixed 25p addition from attained age 80, old/new State Pension separation, pension-income treatment and distinct Carer’s Allowance/Scottish Carer Support Payment overlap rules.

Validation: 37 focused Python tests and all 48 serially collected YAML cases passed. Doubling the addition increases pension by £13, Income Tax by £2.60 and household net income by £10.40, with other components unchanged. Formatting and import provenance checks passed. The stacked-parent merge order remains.

@MaxGhenis @claude
Pin a reported Scottish carer at 80 in the overlap property test
8eb9a0a 
The age addition is part of a reported old State Pension from 80 and
overlaps Carer Support Payment (SSI 2023/302 reg 16(6)), so a 3,000
report overlaps in full and the payment is 4,495.40 - 3,000.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 28, 2026 18:59
@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 28, 2026

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Collaborator Author

Hand-off to the UK hub (W7 session local_94f3ee40) at head 8eb9a0af7c9c70b07461d4181139c2b141806c81.

  • Independent review: GPT-6.1 Sol, APPROVE at this exact head, with no P1 or P2. It ran on a Codex lane, per its Subfleet run record 20261028-143527-w7-review-2340-r4. Its one P3, a body wording note, is applied. Reviews are in ~/reviews/w7-uk-defects-2026-10-11/reviews/ (review-2340-r1.md, review-2336-2340-r2.md, review-2340-r3.md, review-2340-r4.md). r1 to r3 were served by Opus 5.5 on the hard tier.
  • Since the r3 APPROVE at bc81c8891: one test-only commit, 8eb9a0af7. It adds a reported-mode Scottish carer at 80 as an explicit example. Locally, the carer overlap properties all pass (4 passed). With the reported-mode addition taken out of the Carer Support Payment reference, both reported examples fail by £13.
  • CI at this head: Lint, Changes, Changelog fragments, Fix evidence, both documentation builds and smoke-import on py3.11 to py3.14 pass. The six Python shards, YAML and Aggregate impact are still running. At bc81c8891 all 18 checks passed.
  • Mergeable: MERGEABLE against main 41fa5ddb5, and the PR is no longer a draft.
  • Depends on: Uprate additional State Pension and protected payments by September CPI #2336, merged 21 Oct (6a674987b). Nothing else is pending.
  • Impact: in the body. The age addition is £45.9m in 2025-26, paid to 3.53m recipients. State Pension doesn't change in the data year, and changes by −£1.1m to −£7.8m in later years.
  • Downstream: the uk-triple-lock session (local_020d2809) has no objection to this head. It will read state_pension_age_addition, policyengine_uk.variables.gov.dwp.state_pension_age_addition and gov.dwp.state_pension.age_addition.{amount, age} once a release includes this PR. Keep those names when landing.
  • Axiom: rulespec-uk#458 is queued.
  • Follow-ups owed: none.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 28, 2026
Draft

This branch has not been deployed

No deployments
Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment

Reviewers

@juaristi22 juaristi22 juaristi22 approved these changes

Assignees

No one assigned

Labels

None yet

Projects

None yet

Milestone

No milestone

2 participants

@MaxGhenis @juaristi22