U2: commit the pre-registration evidence record and test it as present

docs/design/u2_m2_u1_differential_2faf035.json

@@ -0,0 +1,151 @@
+{
+  "base": {
+    "path": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/_clones/md-u2-diff-base-9cee2423",
+    "head": "9cee2423f048683e15838aa5fee330afd072f85f"
+  },
+  "candidate": {
+    "path": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/_clones/md-u2-diff-cand",
+    "head": "2faf03565cb55ab56256317aebefab2a2ce82efd"
+  },
+  "python": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/_clones/md-u2-diff-venv-pandas306/bin/python",
+  "environment": {
+    "added_after_run": "read from the interpreter named in `python`, under the run's environment variables; scripts/u2_u1_differential.py does not write this block",
+    "python_version": "3.14.7",
+    "pandas_version": "3.0.6",
+    "numpy_version": "2.5.4",
+    "future_infer_string": true,
+    "install": "uv pip install -e \".[dev]\" \"pandas==3.0.6\" \"numpy==2.5.4\"",
+    "psid_root": "an empty directory (POPULACE_DYNAMICS_PSID_DIR and HOME)"
+  },
+  "seed": 20260924,
+  "tolerance": "zero: byte equality",
+  "excluded_json_paths": [
+    "/run/git_head",
+    "/run/date"
+  ],
+  "ratified_u1_block_sha256": "aed6e724053a44da76e4d08069930c88fe6c978a5ff58fce42beffd3a78785eb",
+  "dry_run": {
+    "result_json_equal": true,
+    "results_md_equal": true,
+    "result_json_sha256": {
+      "base": "9f4e4e7f1c466db7b375de6909ea85a2201a7d2361f101a35fc2514befffd35f",
+      "candidate": "9f4e4e7f1c466db7b375de6909ea85a2201a7d2361f101a35fc2514befffd35f"
+    },
+    "results_md_sha256": {
+      "base": "5906f196f71c09e48163e12abcf36f70083ec5674874aaa440474ceddb03c0df",
+      "candidate": "5906f196f71c09e48163e12abcf36f70083ec5674874aaa440474ceddb03c0df"
+    },
+    "first_json_difference": null,
+    "first_md_difference": null,
+    "run": {
+      "base": {
+        "date": "2026-10-24",
+        "invented_seed": 20260924,
+        "git_head": "9cee2423f048683e15838aa5fee330afd072f85f",
+        "git_clean": true,
+        "python": "3.14.7",
+        "command": "python scripts/track_u_dry_run.py --output-dir /var/folders/9l/_wztzgbx7mgc7l1r0416cy7m0000gn/T/u1-differential-tjve5_7o/same-output --seed 20260924"
+      },
+      "candidate": {
+        "date": "2026-10-24",
+        "invented_seed": 20260924,
+        "git_head": "2faf03565cb55ab56256317aebefab2a2ce82efd",
+        "git_clean": true,
+        "python": "3.14.7",
+        "command": "python scripts/track_u_dry_run.py --output-dir /var/folders/9l/_wztzgbx7mgc7l1r0416cy7m0000gn/T/u1-differential-tjve5_7o/same-output --seed 20260924"
+      }
+    }
+  },
+  "refusal_expectations": {
+    "base": {
+      "met": true,
+      "failures": {}
+    },
+    "candidate": {
+      "met": true,
+      "failures": {}
+    }
+  },
+  "loader_file_accesses_empty": true,
+  "contract_checks": {
+    "equal": true,
+    "sha256": {
+      "base": "49e47726948dc6faf4f39e0ae1ff60054e178b5feb4701cbb8b84400b6bdccd9",
+      "candidate": "49e47726948dc6faf4f39e0ae1ff60054e178b5feb4701cbb8b84400b6bdccd9"
+    },
+    "first_difference": null,
+    "checked": [
+      "actual_loader",
+      "age67.WAVES",
+      "input_frames_sha256",
+      "observation_plan",
+      "pending_decisions",
+      "refusal_parity",
+      "rows.MAX_RULINGS",
+      "runner.NAMED_DELTAS",
+      "uniform_cut_tabulation.COMPARATOR_COLUMN",
+      "uniform_cut_tabulation.REPORT_ROWS"
+    ],
+    "refusal_parity": {
+      "existing_artifact": {
+        "class": "ValueError",
+        "message": "/INVENTED/u1-refusal-parity/replication_boomers2004_uniform_cut_v1.json already exists: the registered run is one-shot",
+        "module": "builtins"
+      },
+      "existing_sidecar": {
+        "class": "ValueError",
+        "message": "/INVENTED/u1-refusal-parity/replication_boomers2004_uniform_cut_v1.json already exists: the registered run is one-shot",
+        "module": "builtins"
+      },
+      "invalid_provenance": {
+        "class": "TrackURunError",
+        "message": "data_provenance must be one of ('invented', 'registered_real')",
+        "module": "populace_dynamics.uniform_cut_track_u.runner"
+      },
+      "invalid_registration_url": {
+        "class": "TrackURunError",
+        "message": "a registered run needs an issue #42 comment URL as its registration pointer (https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm-dynamics/issues/42#issuecomment-<id>)",
+        "module": "populace_dynamics.uniform_cut_track_u.runner"
+      },
+      "invented_labeled_registered": {
+        "class": "TrackURunError",
+        "message": "a registered run reads the staged PSID through age67.load_age67_inputs; these inputs record 'invented'",
+        "module": "populace_dynamics.uniform_cut_track_u.runner"
+      },
+      "invented_with_pointer": {
+        "class": "TrackURunError",
+        "message": "an invented run carries no registration pointer",
+        "module": "populace_dynamics.uniform_cut_track_u.runner"
+      },
+      "u2_seed_under_u1": {
+        "class": "ValueError",
+        "message": "seed_wave_rule must be earliest_presence_wave",
+        "module": "builtins"
+      },
+      "wrong_registered_headline": {
+        "class": "ValueError",
+        "message": "the registration names headline row U0, but the staged PSID gives U0-F under the fallback rule (WEALTH1 refused for waves [2005, 2007]): the staging changed after registration, so this is not the registered run",
+        "module": "builtins"
+      },
+      "wrong_ssi_hash": {
+        "class": "TrackURunError",
+        "message": "a registered run needs the committed SSI capture; the SSI parameters record {'kind': 'policyengine_us_capture', 'sha256': '0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000'}",
+        "module": "populace_dynamics.uniform_cut_track_u.runner"
+      },
+      "wrong_threshold_hash": {
+        "class": "TrackURunError",
+        "message": "a registered run needs the committed, pinned Census threshold capture (adjusted_poverty.THRESHOLDS_SHA256 is 'dc21a78736f5085872cf56c9cf291258034c1293572b77455cba689a1ed0eec5'); the thresholds record {'kind': 'census_capture', 'sha256': '0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000'}",
+        "module": "populace_dynamics.uniform_cut_track_u.runner"
+      }
+    },
+    "loader_opened_under_fake_root": {
+      "base:supplements_refused": [],
+      "base:supplements_staged": [],
+      "candidate:supplements_refused": [],
+      "candidate:supplements_staged": []
+    }
+  },
+  "all_equal": true,
+  "dry_run_skipped": false,
+  "all_checks_passed": true
+}