From ba43f5800265ce5070e34264a23bdd92cf7185f3 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Pigbibi <20649888+Pigbibi@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 7 Oct 2026 02:23:07 +0800 Subject: [PATCH] data: import reviewed 2026-10-02 theme momentum snapshot One-time byte-identical import from run 37132550227 attempt 1, artifact 11277617087. Preserve original timestamps and research-only policy. --- data/output/theme_momentum_snapshot.json | 957 ++++++++++++----------- 1 file changed, 480 insertions(+), 477 deletions(-) diff --git a/data/output/theme_momentum_snapshot.json b/data/output/theme_momentum_snapshot.json index 3674c30..3634d4a 100644 --- a/data/output/theme_momentum_snapshot.json +++ b/data/output/theme_momentum_snapshot.json @@ -1,6 +1,6 @@ { "artifact_type": "medium_horizon_theme_context", - "as_of": "2026-06-26", + "as_of": "2026-10-02", "data_quality": { "coverage": { "configured_symbol_count": 53, @@ -12,7 +12,8 @@ "missing_price_symbols": [], "unranked_themes": [] }, - "generated_at": "2026-06-27T12:57:19.193780Z", + "expires_at": "2026-12-25", + "generated_at": "2026-10-03T15:14:55.748038Z", "horizon": "medium", "horizon_window": "2-12 weeks", "horizon_window_label": "2-12\u5468", @@ -40,13 +41,15 @@ } }, "mode": "theme_momentum_snapshot", + "model_version": "theme-momentum-v1", "policy": { "downstream_use": "Medium-horizon theme context for research ranking and replay only; do not route to broker execution.", "execution_allowed": false, "portfolio_allocation_allowed": false, "theme_rank_is_research_context_only": true }, - "schema_version": "1", + "schema_version": "2", + "scoring_version": "theme-momentum-rules-v1", "source_artifacts": { "prices": "yahoo_chart_download", "theme_exposures": "config/symbol_theme_exposure.csv", @@ -58,8 +61,8 @@ "top_theme_ids": [ "hbm_memory", "foundry_semicap", - "ai_compute", "ai_server_infrastructure", + "ai_compute", "cybersecurity" ] }, @@ -69,17 +72,17 @@ "breadth_3m": 1.0, "component_count": 2, "horizon": "6-24 months", - "momentum_score": 3.233924, + "momentum_score": 1.901133, "priced_symbol_count": 2, "rank": 1, "returns": { - "12_1m": 5.384598, - "3m": 1.490836, - "6_1m": 2.283755 + "12_1m": 4.078559, + "3m": 0.052453, + "6_1m": 0.928376 }, "risk": { - "drawdown_126d": -0.083139, - "realized_vol_63d": 0.807693 + "drawdown_126d": -0.107236, + "realized_vol_63d": 0.610175 }, "sector": "technology", "source_policy": "Prefer issuer filings, earnings transcripts, capex plans, and supply-chain primary evidence.", @@ -87,36 +90,36 @@ "theme_name": "HBM and memory cycle", "top_symbols": [ { - "momentum_score": 5.180139, - "return_12_1m": 8.967144, - "return_3m": 2.186872, - "return_6_1m": 3.48076, + "momentum_score": 3.199323, + "return_12_1m": 7.082499, + "return_3m": 0.091536, + "return_6_1m": 1.386977, "symbol": "MU" }, { - "momentum_score": 1.187708, - "return_12_1m": 1.802051, - "return_3m": 0.794801, - "return_6_1m": 1.086749, + "momentum_score": 0.502944, + "return_12_1m": 1.07462, + "return_3m": 0.01337, + "return_6_1m": 0.469776, "symbol": "SOXX" } ] }, { - "breadth_3m": 1.0, + "breadth_3m": 0.6, "component_count": 5, "horizon": "1-3 years", - "momentum_score": 1.565465, + "momentum_score": 0.661287, "priced_symbol_count": 5, "rank": 2, "returns": { - "12_1m": 2.491244, - "3m": 0.954929, - "6_1m": 1.167685 + "12_1m": 1.337942, + "3m": 0.027798, + "6_1m": 0.607313 }, "risk": { - "drawdown_126d": -0.111941, - "realized_vol_63d": 0.669798 + "drawdown_126d": -0.104214, + "realized_vol_63d": 0.515636 }, "sector": "technology", "source_policy": "Require SEC filings, government policy documents, grants, export-control notices, or issuer materials.", @@ -124,148 +127,148 @@ "theme_name": "Foundry and semiconductor policy", "top_symbols": [ { - "momentum_score": 3.225353, - "return_12_1m": 5.073317, - "return_3m": 1.909751, - "return_6_1m": 2.529565, + "momentum_score": 1.275543, + "return_12_1m": 2.719538, + "return_3m": -0.023486, + "return_6_1m": 0.975647, "symbol": "INTC" }, { - "momentum_score": 2.155773, - "return_12_1m": 3.492249, - "return_3m": 1.559651, - "return_6_1m": 1.43174, + "momentum_score": 1.106756, + "return_12_1m": 1.815796, + "return_3m": 0.148284, + "return_6_1m": 1.261889, "symbol": "AMD" }, { - "momentum_score": 1.187708, - "return_12_1m": 1.802051, - "return_3m": 0.794801, - "return_6_1m": 1.086749, + "momentum_score": 0.502944, + "return_12_1m": 1.07462, + "return_3m": 0.01337, + "return_6_1m": 0.469776, "symbol": "SOXX" }, { - "momentum_score": 0.676532, - "return_12_1m": 1.22922, - "return_3m": 0.328885, - "return_6_1m": 0.545356, + "momentum_score": 0.354323, + "return_12_1m": 0.839376, + "return_3m": 0.049267, + "return_6_1m": 0.168438, "symbol": "TSM" }, { - "momentum_score": 0.331957, - "return_12_1m": 0.859383, - "return_3m": 0.181558, - "return_6_1m": 0.245014, + "momentum_score": 0.016868, + "return_12_1m": 0.240379, + "return_3m": -0.048444, + "return_6_1m": 0.160813, "symbol": "AVGO" } ] }, { - "breadth_3m": 0.952381, - "component_count": 21, - "horizon": "1-3 years", - "momentum_score": 0.852934, - "priced_symbol_count": 21, + "breadth_3m": 0.5, + "component_count": 4, + "horizon": "6-24 months", + "momentum_score": 0.474441, + "priced_symbol_count": 4, "rank": 3, "returns": { - "12_1m": 1.440635, - "3m": 0.529576, - "6_1m": 0.663177 + "12_1m": 0.938709, + "3m": 0.190108, + "6_1m": 0.620103 }, "risk": { - "drawdown_126d": -0.179154, - "realized_vol_63d": 0.588503 + "drawdown_126d": -0.23178, + "realized_vol_63d": 0.71774 }, "sector": "technology", - "source_policy": "Require issuer filings, IR releases, hyperscaler capex evidence, or durable industry data before recommendation escalation.", - "theme_id": "ai_compute", - "theme_name": "AI compute platforms", + "source_policy": "Require issuer releases, filings, customer demand evidence, or confirmed procurement data.", + "theme_id": "ai_server_infrastructure", + "theme_name": "AI server and data-center hardware", "top_symbols": [ { - "momentum_score": 5.180139, - "return_12_1m": 8.967144, - "return_3m": 2.186872, - "return_6_1m": 3.48076, - "symbol": "MU" - }, - { - "momentum_score": 3.225353, - "return_12_1m": 5.073317, - "return_3m": 1.909751, - "return_6_1m": 2.529565, - "symbol": "INTC" + "momentum_score": 2.036383, + "return_12_1m": 3.120967, + "return_3m": 0.36826, + "return_6_1m": 2.361923, + "symbol": "DELL" }, { - "momentum_score": 2.155773, - "return_12_1m": 3.492249, - "return_3m": 1.559651, - "return_6_1m": 1.43174, - "symbol": "AMD" + "momentum_score": 0.204544, + "return_12_1m": 1.072274, + "return_3m": -0.207957, + "return_6_1m": 0.022025, + "symbol": "VRT" }, { - "momentum_score": 1.374512, - "return_12_1m": 1.764806, - "return_3m": 1.279183, - "return_6_1m": 1.510853, - "symbol": "DELL" + "momentum_score": -0.001788, + "return_12_1m": -0.092692, + "return_3m": 0.606841, + "return_6_1m": 0.133231, + "symbol": "SMCI" }, { - "momentum_score": 1.187708, - "return_12_1m": 1.802051, - "return_3m": 0.794801, - "return_6_1m": 1.086749, - "symbol": "SOXX" + "momentum_score": -0.341376, + "return_12_1m": -0.345711, + "return_3m": -0.006712, + "return_6_1m": -0.036767, + "symbol": "ORCL" } ] }, { - "breadth_3m": 1.0, - "component_count": 4, - "horizon": "6-24 months", - "momentum_score": 0.606312, - "priced_symbol_count": 4, + "breadth_3m": 0.666667, + "component_count": 21, + "horizon": "1-3 years", + "momentum_score": 0.446854, + "priced_symbol_count": 21, "rank": 4, "returns": { - "12_1m": 1.007126, - "3m": 0.476617, - "6_1m": 0.66647 + "12_1m": 0.915995, + "3m": 0.084281, + "6_1m": 0.415562 }, "risk": { - "drawdown_126d": -0.281382, - "realized_vol_63d": 0.857413 + "drawdown_126d": -0.112331, + "realized_vol_63d": 0.497634 }, "sector": "technology", - "source_policy": "Require issuer releases, filings, customer demand evidence, or confirmed procurement data.", - "theme_id": "ai_server_infrastructure", - "theme_name": "AI server and data-center hardware", + "source_policy": "Require issuer filings, IR releases, hyperscaler capex evidence, or durable industry data before recommendation escalation.", + "theme_id": "ai_compute", + "theme_name": "AI compute platforms", "top_symbols": [ { - "momentum_score": 1.374512, - "return_12_1m": 1.764806, - "return_3m": 1.279183, - "return_6_1m": 1.510853, + "momentum_score": 3.199323, + "return_12_1m": 7.082499, + "return_3m": 0.091536, + "return_6_1m": 1.386977, + "symbol": "MU" + }, + { + "momentum_score": 2.036383, + "return_12_1m": 3.120967, + "return_3m": 0.36826, + "return_6_1m": 2.361923, "symbol": "DELL" }, { - "momentum_score": 1.085952, - "return_12_1m": 2.07447, - "return_3m": 0.20449, - "return_6_1m": 1.001974, - "symbol": "VRT" + "momentum_score": 1.275543, + "return_12_1m": 2.719538, + "return_3m": -0.023486, + "return_6_1m": 0.975647, + "symbol": "INTC" }, { - "momentum_score": -0.108373, - "return_12_1m": 0.236622, - "return_3m": 0.043686, - "return_6_1m": -0.033339, - "symbol": "ORCL" + "momentum_score": 1.106756, + "return_12_1m": 1.815796, + "return_3m": 0.148284, + "return_6_1m": 1.261889, + "symbol": "AMD" }, { - "momentum_score": -0.126844, - "return_12_1m": -0.047393, - "return_3m": 0.379109, - "return_6_1m": 0.186393, - "symbol": "SMCI" + "momentum_score": 0.502944, + "return_12_1m": 1.07462, + "return_3m": 0.01337, + "return_6_1m": 0.469776, + "symbol": "SOXX" } ] }, @@ -273,17 +276,17 @@ "breadth_3m": 1.0, "component_count": 5, "horizon": "1-3 years", - "momentum_score": 0.304963, + "momentum_score": 0.415804, "priced_symbol_count": 5, "rank": 5, "returns": { - "12_1m": 0.349197, - "3m": 0.470738, - "6_1m": 0.228995 + "12_1m": 0.472868, + "3m": 0.190159, + "6_1m": 0.555747 }, "risk": { - "drawdown_126d": -0.094655, - "realized_vol_63d": 0.392561 + "drawdown_126d": 0.0, + "realized_vol_63d": 0.435963 }, "sector": "technology", "source_policy": "Require issuer filings, contract disclosures, government cybersecurity policy, or primary procurement evidence.", @@ -291,57 +294,138 @@ "theme_name": "Enterprise cybersecurity", "top_symbols": [ { - "momentum_score": 0.416982, - "return_12_1m": 0.330495, - "return_3m": 0.94551, - "return_6_1m": 0.358502, - "symbol": "PANW" + "momentum_score": 0.715175, + "return_12_1m": 0.967787, + "return_3m": 0.354399, + "return_6_1m": 0.995879, + "symbol": "CRWD" }, { - "momentum_score": 0.401243, - "return_12_1m": 0.635589, - "return_3m": 0.368498, - "return_6_1m": 0.353875, - "symbol": "XLK" + "momentum_score": 0.605564, + "return_12_1m": 0.724123, + "return_3m": 0.127849, + "return_6_1m": 1.071645, + "symbol": "PANW" }, { - "momentum_score": 0.366828, - "return_12_1m": 0.416537, - "return_3m": 0.785671, - "return_6_1m": 0.315263, - "symbol": "CRWD" + "momentum_score": 0.262303, + "return_12_1m": 0.420812, + "return_3m": 0.089738, + "return_6_1m": 0.316129, + "symbol": "XLK" }, { - "momentum_score": 0.268923, - "return_12_1m": 0.439362, - "return_3m": 0.232675, - "return_6_1m": 0.239363, + "momentum_score": 0.142356, + "return_12_1m": 0.259955, + "return_3m": 0.038102, + "return_6_1m": 0.164003, "symbol": "QQQ" }, { - "momentum_score": -0.179158, - "return_12_1m": -0.076, - "return_3m": 0.021335, - "return_6_1m": -0.122029, + "momentum_score": 0.10362, + "return_12_1m": -0.008339, + "return_3m": 0.340705, + "return_6_1m": 0.231079, "symbol": "MSFT" } ] }, { - "breadth_3m": 0.888889, + "breadth_3m": 1.0, + "component_count": 3, + "horizon": "6-24 months", + "momentum_score": 0.284531, + "priced_symbol_count": 3, + "rank": 6, + "returns": { + "12_1m": 0.43871, + "3m": 0.213186, + "6_1m": 0.147883 + }, + "risk": { + "drawdown_126d": -0.041249, + "realized_vol_63d": 0.237973 + }, + "sector": "energy", + "source_policy": "Require EIA/DOE/Treasury materials, issuer filings, official sanctions, or durable commodity context.", + "theme_id": "energy_security", + "theme_name": "Energy security and hydrocarbons", + "top_symbols": [ + { + "momentum_score": 0.258931, + "return_12_1m": 0.483175, + "return_3m": 0.189411, + "return_6_1m": 0.174549, + "symbol": "XLE" + }, + { + "momentum_score": 0.233587, + "return_12_1m": 0.472731, + "return_3m": 0.20985, + "return_6_1m": 0.110227, + "symbol": "XOM" + }, + { + "momentum_score": 0.211075, + "return_12_1m": 0.360225, + "return_3m": 0.240296, + "return_6_1m": 0.158872, + "symbol": "CVX" + } + ] + }, + { + "breadth_3m": 0.5, + "component_count": 2, + "horizon": "6-24 months", + "momentum_score": 0.146097, + "priced_symbol_count": 2, + "rank": 7, + "returns": { + "12_1m": 0.304063, + "3m": -0.037402, + "6_1m": 0.249026 + }, + "risk": { + "drawdown_126d": -0.096455, + "realized_vol_63d": 0.194823 + }, + "sector": "healthcare", + "source_policy": "Require CMS/HHS documents, SEC filings, issuer releases, or official policy evidence.", + "theme_id": "healthcare_policy", + "theme_name": "Healthcare policy and managed care", + "top_symbols": [ + { + "momentum_score": 0.172571, + "return_12_1m": 0.328898, + "return_3m": -0.104787, + "return_6_1m": 0.387407, + "symbol": "UNH" + }, + { + "momentum_score": 0.119623, + "return_12_1m": 0.279229, + "return_3m": 0.029983, + "return_6_1m": 0.110646, + "symbol": "XLV" + } + ] + }, + { + "breadth_3m": 0.666667, "component_count": 9, "horizon": "6-24 months", - "momentum_score": 0.284333, + "momentum_score": 0.051296, "priced_symbol_count": 9, - "rank": 6, + "rank": 8, "returns": { - "12_1m": 0.55954, - "3m": 0.237189, - "6_1m": 0.224999 + "12_1m": 0.184836, + "3m": 0.023384, + "6_1m": 0.125725 }, "risk": { - "drawdown_126d": -0.18666, - "realized_vol_63d": 0.465023 + "drawdown_126d": -0.106221, + "realized_vol_63d": 0.417335 }, "sector": "communication_services", "source_policy": "Require issuer filings, platform policy evidence, app-store disclosures, or durable ad-market data.", @@ -349,57 +433,57 @@ "theme_name": "Consumer platforms and ads", "top_symbols": [ { - "momentum_score": 0.881923, - "return_12_1m": 1.480127, - "return_3m": 0.742178, - "return_6_1m": 0.725634, + "momentum_score": 0.293931, + "return_12_1m": 0.608909, + "return_3m": 0.062113, + "return_6_1m": 0.390282, "symbol": "TQQQ" }, { - "momentum_score": 0.58666, - "return_12_1m": 1.31601, - "return_3m": 0.201735, - "return_6_1m": 0.299333, - "symbol": "GOOGL" + "momentum_score": 0.262303, + "return_12_1m": 0.420812, + "return_3m": 0.089738, + "return_6_1m": 0.316129, + "symbol": "XLK" }, { - "momentum_score": 0.401243, - "return_12_1m": 0.635589, - "return_3m": 0.368498, - "return_6_1m": 0.353875, - "symbol": "XLK" + "momentum_score": 0.223497, + "return_12_1m": 0.419817, + "return_3m": 0.068182, + "return_6_1m": 0.240058, + "symbol": "AAPL" }, { - "momentum_score": 0.340537, - "return_12_1m": 0.643064, - "return_3m": 0.456178, - "return_6_1m": 0.445798, - "symbol": "QCOM" + "momentum_score": 0.176517, + "return_12_1m": 0.59963, + "return_3m": -0.062051, + "return_6_1m": 0.113578, + "symbol": "GOOGL" }, { - "momentum_score": 0.268923, - "return_12_1m": 0.439362, - "return_3m": 0.232675, - "return_6_1m": 0.239363, + "momentum_score": 0.142356, + "return_12_1m": 0.259955, + "return_3m": 0.038102, + "return_6_1m": 0.164003, "symbol": "QQQ" } ] }, { - "breadth_3m": 1.0, + "breadth_3m": 0.0, "component_count": 6, "horizon": "1-3 years", - "momentum_score": 0.23628, + "momentum_score": -0.019988, "priced_symbol_count": 6, - "rank": 7, + "rank": 9, "returns": { - "12_1m": 0.337687, - "3m": 0.186208, - "6_1m": 0.189312 + "12_1m": 0.160883, + "3m": -0.107124, + "6_1m": 0.038577 }, "risk": { - "drawdown_126d": -0.059131, - "realized_vol_63d": 0.312154 + "drawdown_126d": -0.149803, + "realized_vol_63d": 0.224076 }, "sector": "industrials", "source_policy": "Require issuer backlog/capex evidence, government manufacturing policy, or official project data.", @@ -407,94 +491,115 @@ "theme_name": "Industrial automation and reshoring", "top_symbols": [ { - "momentum_score": 0.285634, - "return_12_1m": 0.448949, - "return_3m": 0.21461, - "return_6_1m": 0.238803, + "momentum_score": 0.100278, + "return_12_1m": 0.270046, + "return_3m": -0.055687, + "return_6_1m": 0.127878, "symbol": "IWM" }, { - "momentum_score": 0.269154, - "return_12_1m": 0.608408, - "return_3m": 0.233458, - "return_6_1m": 0.2669, - "symbol": "F" + "momentum_score": 0.069186, + "return_12_1m": 0.187685, + "return_3m": -0.032526, + "return_6_1m": 0.095527, + "symbol": "DIA" }, { - "momentum_score": 0.195948, - 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