Why does the new Enhanced CPS lower the Harris CTC poverty impact so much?

[MaxGhenis]

When we published the Harris CTC report on August 17, the Enhanced CPS estimated it would cut child poverty 30.5% in 2025. Now, it's fallen to 11.9% , though still 31.8% in the base CPS.

Impact of Harris CTC on child poverty, 2025

Dataset	Baseline	Reform	Impact
CPS	10.1%	6.9%	-31.8%
ECPS	21.9%	19.3%	-11.9%
ECPS (old)	?	?	-30.5%

Compared to the CPS, it's a similar pp change, but the baseline poverty rate is more than double. This implies that, even though the ECPS has more people in poverty, it doesn't have more people near the poverty line--the additional people in poverty are deeper in poverty such that the CTC doesn't lift them above the line. Could negative incomes explain this? @nikhilwoodruff