diff --git a/.github/workflows/ci.yml b/.github/workflows/ci.yml index e00f0011d..777b24302 100644 --- a/.github/workflows/ci.yml +++ b/.github/workflows/ci.yml @@ -110,12 +110,14 @@ jobs: - name: Construction guards on the variant's engine run: | set -euo pipefail - for event in autumn_budget_2024 autumn_statement_2023 spring_budget_2024 spring_statement_2025 spring_budget_2023; do + for event in autumn_budget_2024 autumn_statement_2023 spring_budget_2024 spring_statement_2025 spring_budget_2023 autumn_budget_2025; do .venv-variant/bin/python -m pipeline.compute_uk_event --event "$event" --variant "$VARIANT" --guards > /dev/null echo "guards hold: $event" done + # A namespace's premises cover the events it holds results for, or + # every registered event when it holds none (namespace_events). - name: Construction premises regenerate - run: .venv-variant/bin/python -m pipeline.audit_uk_event_premises --all --expect-engine "$ENGINE" --output "$RESULT_ROOT/CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json" --check + run: .venv-variant/bin/python -m pipeline.audit_uk_event_premises --namespace "$RESULT_ROOT" --expect-engine "$ENGINE" --output "$RESULT_ROOT/CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json" --check - name: Re-verified diagnostics regenerate if: env.LEGACY == 'False' run: | diff --git a/data/uk/events/autumn_budget_2025_measures.json b/data/uk/events/autumn_budget_2025_measures.json new file mode 100644 index 000000000..7818e6e6a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/uk/events/autumn_budget_2025_measures.json @@ -0,0 +1,36108 @@ +{ + "schema_version": 1, + "event_slug": "autumn_budget_2025", + "event_name": "Autumn Budget 2025", + "classification_note": "not_expressible means no established executable construction in this replay. gap_kind distinguishes evidenced model/data gaps from construction_pending decisions; pending constructions do not claim the underlying liability model is absent.", + "calendar_years": [ + 2025, + 2026, + 2027, + 2028, + 2029, + 2030 + ], + "years_note": "Calendar year starting the OBR fiscal year is the proxy. FY before 2023-24 stays accounted but is not simulated. Detailed pinned-engine/data support is recorded in docs/uk_replay/YEARS.md.", + "bundle": { + "schema_version": 1, + "registry_rule": "The identity of the certified populace-uk artifact a UK compute run must execute against. Committed so verification is OFFLINE and byte-exact: a run checks the artifact it was handed against this digest before constructing a simulation, rather than trusting a filename or a path.", + "repo_id": "policyengine/populace-uk-private", + "revision": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", + "artifact": "populace_uk_2023.h5", + "sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833", + "size_bytes": 1315880118, + "compatible_model_packages": [ + { + "name": "policyengine-uk", + "specifier": "==2.89.2" + } + ], + "provenance": "Read from the release's own release_manifest.json in policyengine/populace-uk-private on 2026-09-07, and independently confirmed by downloading the artifact at that revision and hashing it.", + "why_this_bundle": "It is the bundle the 14 existing UK results were computed against (run_id campaign-20260802-reckoner-t2, engine_version 2.89.2 in pe_results). A counterpart computed on a different bundle is not comparable to them.", + "engine_constraint_note": "The bundle DECLARES policyengine-uk ==2.89.2. That is not this repo's preference; it is the data's own compatibility statement. Computing at a newer engine needs a NEW certified bundle, not a relaxed check — see #126." + }, + "source": { + "source": "obr", + "description": "OBR Policy measures database: original-scorecard tax and spending rows; local harvest verified byte-identical to the checked-in gzip copy.", + "claims_path": "sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_obr/claims_staged.jsonl.gz", + "claims_gzip_sha256": "ef88a02aa930501f4f8941ca85b399abbe258ab3664b9dcc4699b7a63cb5501c", + "claims_uncompressed_sha256": "46117d14c4de7ac10cbc9bc09acef6c5b5060db1605e02334d4a827cf420a3bd", + "workbook_name": "Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", + "workbook_sha256": "76fb24ac780364949e5537563a70f8fbbe30cad6c652195704ea5d72b32ea619", + "publication": { + "title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", + "publisher": "Office for Budget Responsibility", + "publication_url": "https://obr.uk/data/", + "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", + "wayback": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260102175529id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", + "vintage": "November 2025 (updated to Autumn Budget 2025)", + "workbook": "Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", + "units_note": "All figures in GBP million; Treasury costings rounded to nearest GBP 5m (GBP 1m since Budget 2018)", + "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); verbatim from Notes sheet" + }, + "source_row_identity": "1-based line in uncompressed claims_path plus sha256 of the verbatim UTF-8 row", + "harvest_note": "Spending rows use proposed_metric=exchequer_impact; tax rows use metric=revenue_change. Both signs are positive_gain_to_exchequer. Raw rows and original values are retained in the checked-in harvest; registries contain traceable normalized pointers." + }, + "orientation": "positive means gain to the Exchequer; reversal effect = -(literal reversal - certified baseline)", + "accounting": { + "identity": "rows_in = rows_classified; net GBP in = net GBP classified; absolute GBP in = absolute GBP classified (also within each FY)", + "sign_convention": "positive means a gain to the Exchequer", + "amount_basis": "All harvested GBP cells across all source heads and costing years, including zeros; this is not a one-year Budget total.", + "rows_in": 1512, + "rows_classified": 1512, + "net_gbp_in_decimal": "20106669555.75860149730126", + "net_gbp_classified_decimal": "20106669555.75860149730126", + "absolute_gbp_in_decimal": "342886967236.10398910733346", + "absolute_gbp_classified_decimal": "342886967236.10398910733346", + "by_class": { + "expressible": { + "rows": 6, + "net_gbp_decimal": "1398375200.0", + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "1398375200.0", + "measures": 1 + }, + "partial": { + "rows": 138, + "net_gbp_decimal": "19725928336.4772127795", + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "73212257534.7744601355", + "measures": 8 + }, + "not_expressible": { + "rows": 510, + "net_gbp_decimal": "-8197572054.6310941637533", + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "82650161765.6234939079467", + "measures": 51 + }, + "out_of_household_scope": { + "rows": 858, + "net_gbp_decimal": "7179938073.91248288155456", + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "185626172735.70603506388676", + "measures": 45 + } + }, + "by_fy": { + "2025-26": { + "rows_in": 252, + "rows_classified": 252, + "net_gbp_in_decimal": "-3656694684.279625981582", + "net_gbp_classified_decimal": "-3656694684.279625981582", + "absolute_gbp_in_decimal": "8848396781.215690707882", + "absolute_gbp_classified_decimal": "8848396781.215690707882" + }, + "2026-27": { + "rows_in": 252, + "rows_classified": 252, + "net_gbp_in_decimal": "-5892136970.5180176610043", + "net_gbp_classified_decimal": "-5892136970.5180176610043", + "absolute_gbp_in_decimal": "51943944023.7275740785757", + "absolute_gbp_classified_decimal": "51943944023.7275740785757" + }, + "2027-28": { + "rows_in": 252, + "rows_classified": 252, + "net_gbp_in_decimal": "-9907846360.29140919144934", + "net_gbp_classified_decimal": "-9907846360.29140919144934", + "absolute_gbp_in_decimal": "43766366789.32912532127066", + "absolute_gbp_classified_decimal": "43766366789.32912532127066" + }, + "2028-29": { + "rows_in": 252, + "rows_classified": 252, + "net_gbp_in_decimal": "3345176650.1165006142296", + "net_gbp_classified_decimal": "3345176650.1165006142296", + "absolute_gbp_in_decimal": "64940304920.2109477710824", + "absolute_gbp_classified_decimal": "64940304920.2109477710824" + }, + "2029-30": { + "rows_in": 252, + "rows_classified": 252, + "net_gbp_in_decimal": "16936405701.4517115411663", + "net_gbp_classified_decimal": "16936405701.4517115411663", + "absolute_gbp_in_decimal": 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The same OBR measure freezes the Starting Rate for Savings limit at £5,000, but PE's parameter is constant at £5,000 since 2010 and carries no no-measure uprating path; that component is omitted." + ], + "note": "Reverses the three certified savings-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. The same OBR measure freezes the Starting Rate for Savings limit at £5,000, but PE's parameter is constant at £5,000 since 2010 and carries no no-measure uprating path; that component is omitted. Construction from the OBR costings lane (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml, #56).", + "commences_fy": "2027-28", + "pe_gap": "Reverses the three certified savings-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. The same OBR measure freezes the Starting Rate for Savings limit at £5,000, but PE's parameter is constant at £5,000 since 2010 and carries no no-measure uprating path; that component is omitted.", + "measure_key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", + "title": "Savings Income: Increase tax rates on savings income by 2ppts at the basic, higher and additional rate from 6 April 2027 and maintain the Starting Rate of Savings limit at £5000 from April 2026 to April 2031", + "reported_status": "announced", + "fiscal_event": "Autumn Budget 2025", + "computability": "partial", + "measure_type": "income_tax", + "source_rows": [ + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12330:822760a3237ff614", + "source_row_number": 12330, + "source_row_sha256": "822760a3237ff61456aa975baba3c6eeef08e6eb41d0fc9268f7799537f79f41", + "title": "Savings Income: Increase tax rates on savings income by 2ppts at the basic, higher and additional rate from 6 April 2027 and maintain the Starting Rate of Savings limit at £5000 from April 2026 to April 2031", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2025-26", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": 0.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "0.0", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2025-26", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "Reverses the three certified savings-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. The same OBR measure freezes the Starting Rate for Savings limit at £5,000, but PE's parameter is constant at £5,000 since 2010 and carries no no-measure uprating path; that component is omitted." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12331:02c5d107aa20029b", + "source_row_number": 12331, + "source_row_sha256": "02c5d107aa20029be95077185660c2952b0d792b2b79a551ef9f96354965a642", + "title": "Savings Income: Increase tax rates on savings income by 2ppts at the basic, higher and additional rate from 6 April 2027 and maintain the Starting Rate of Savings limit at £5000 from April 2026 to April 2031", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2026-27", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": 3194839.600493571, + "value_gbp_decimal": "3194839.600493571", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2026-27", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "Reverses the three certified savings-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. The same OBR measure freezes the Starting Rate for Savings limit at £5,000, but PE's parameter is constant at £5,000 since 2010 and carries no no-measure uprating path; that component is omitted." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12332:c6b82f1f54c54340", + "source_row_number": 12332, + "source_row_sha256": "c6b82f1f54c54340d2cb9baa86c71c38c456a6bb9602dd1406244038e8d663f3", + "title": "Savings Income: Increase tax rates on savings income by 2ppts at the basic, higher and additional rate from 6 April 2027 and maintain the Starting Rate of Savings limit at £5000 from April 2026 to April 2031", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2027-28", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": 52840570.89519846, + "value_gbp_decimal": "52840570.89519846", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2027-28", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "Reverses the three certified savings-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. The same OBR measure freezes the Starting Rate for Savings limit at £5,000, but PE's parameter is constant at £5,000 since 2010 and carries no no-measure uprating path; that component is omitted." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12333:e7cb08bb9df37f81", + "source_row_number": 12333, + "source_row_sha256": "e7cb08bb9df37f813c70f23167a0f8ac8c0e7c3daa25ca7da1a0108b8b7a2f49", + "title": "Savings Income: Increase tax rates on savings income by 2ppts at the basic, higher and additional rate from 6 April 2027 and maintain the Starting Rate of Savings limit at £5000 from April 2026 to April 2031", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2028-29", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": 522938617.1892237, + "value_gbp_decimal": "522938617.1892237", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2028-29", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "Reverses the three certified savings-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. The same OBR measure freezes the Starting Rate for Savings limit at £5,000, but PE's parameter is constant at £5,000 since 2010 and carries no no-measure uprating path; that component is omitted." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12334:b5f43f5e38667473", + "source_row_number": 12334, + "source_row_sha256": "b5f43f5e386674735de494ceb5331f2721f0e8b794ae6cc2ba766275ce854738", + "title": "Savings Income: Increase tax rates on savings income by 2ppts at the basic, higher and additional rate from 6 April 2027 and maintain the Starting Rate of Savings limit at £5000 from April 2026 to April 2031", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2029-30", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": 469096430.7994401, + "value_gbp_decimal": "469096430.7994401", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2029-30", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "Reverses the three certified savings-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. The same OBR measure freezes the Starting Rate for Savings limit at £5,000, but PE's parameter is constant at £5,000 since 2010 and carries no no-measure uprating path; that component is omitted." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12335:4ff6459d9e873238", + "source_row_number": 12335, + "source_row_sha256": "4ff6459d9e873238ee5504b3dc5755879da01249bfbfaed3e7f1269e0a22b7d3", + "title": "Savings Income: Increase tax rates on savings income by 2ppts at the basic, higher and additional rate from 6 April 2027 and maintain the Starting Rate of Savings limit at £5000 from April 2026 to April 2031", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2030-31", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": 507273946.4918935, + "value_gbp_decimal": "507273946.4918935", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2030-31", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "Reverses the three certified savings-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. The same OBR measure freezes the Starting Rate for Savings limit at £5,000, but PE's parameter is constant at £5,000 since 2010 and carries no no-measure uprating path; that component is omitted." + } + ], + "divergence_axes": [ + "population_vintage", + "baseline_vintage", + "behavioural_adjustment", + "cy_proxies_fy", + "head_scope" + ], + "name_search": { + "pattern": "gov\\.hmrc\\.income_tax\\.rates\\.savings\\.basic|gov\\.hmrc\\.income_tax\\.rates\\.savings\\.higher|gov\\.hmrc\\.income_tax\\.rates\\.savings\\.additional", + "parameter_matches": [ + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher" + ], + "variable_matches": [], + "engine_version": "2.89.2", + "searched": [ + "full_parameter_tree", + "full_variable_list" + ] + }, + "unmapped_obr_heads": [], + "head_variables": [ + "income_tax" + ], + "engine_baseline_by_year": { + "2025": { + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic": 0.2, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher": 0.4, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional": 0.45 + }, + "2026": { + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic": 0.2, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher": 0.4, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional": 0.45 + }, + "2027": { + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic": 0.22, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher": 0.42, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional": 0.47 + }, + "2028": { + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic": 0.22, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher": 0.42, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional": 0.47 + }, + "2029": { + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic": 0.22, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher": 0.42, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional": 0.47 + }, + "2030": { + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic": 0.22, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher": 0.42, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional": 0.47 + } + } + }, + { + "program": "income_tax", + "classification": "partial", + "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world", + "pe_baseline_modifier": { + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap": { + "2029-01-01.2030-12-31": 1e+100 + }, + "gov.contrib.behavioral_responses.salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut_rate": { + "2029-01-01.2030-12-31": 0.0 + } + }, + "heads": [ + { + "obr_head": "Income tax", + "pe_variables": [ + "income_tax" + ], + "channel": "tax" + }, + { + "obr_head": "NICs", + "pe_variables": [ + "ni_class_1_employee", + "ni_class_1_employer", + "ni_class_4" + ], + "channel": "tax" + } + ], + "missing_legs": [ + "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce." + ], + "note": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. Construction from the OBR costings lane (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml, #56).", + "commences_fy": "2029-30", + "pe_gap": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce.", + "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", + "title": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to £2,000 per year from 6 April 2029", + "reported_status": "announced", + "fiscal_event": "Autumn Budget 2025", + "computability": "partial", + "measure_type": "income_tax", + "source_rows": [ + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12336:7845fbf6ff26f361", + "source_row_number": 12336, + "source_row_sha256": "7845fbf6ff26f3616bb9cf2330340e7fc3c0f7bf9405b77d393e4271cad9e54a", + "title": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to £2,000 per year from 6 April 2029", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2025-26", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": 0.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "0.0", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2025-26", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12337:3b045b83864340cb", + "source_row_number": 12337, + "source_row_sha256": "3b045b83864340cb342a4585efaf8d0f364198646a8997938b9570e1568092e1", + "title": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to £2,000 per year from 6 April 2029", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2026-27", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": -25370811.47955587, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-25370811.47955587", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2026-27", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12338:97e677e9d5b1787d", + "source_row_number": 12338, + "source_row_sha256": "97e677e9d5b1787d1ba29bc9ae78ed0c23fb9662093e0e9b0db5d32e3b3570b1", + "title": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to £2,000 per year from 6 April 2029", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2027-28", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": -38102239.65153843, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-38102239.65153843", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2027-28", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12339:f1cbe0cc8417d518", + "source_row_number": 12339, + "source_row_sha256": "f1cbe0cc8417d518a774ae8d8538565fd29eb41c65b9387b1a8039813574764e", + "title": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to £2,000 per year from 6 April 2029", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2028-29", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": -50783026.3893156, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-50783026.3893156", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2028-29", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12340:56a6872c6215ff54", + "source_row_number": 12340, + "source_row_sha256": "56a6872c6215ff542c46fedb956e3faa2cac980615ea3c4d7d8df078acdfacda", + "title": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to £2,000 per year from 6 April 2029", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2029-30", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": 1390554382.340003, + "value_gbp_decimal": "1390554382.340003", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2029-30", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12341:ce174c39c117892d", + "source_row_number": 12341, + "source_row_sha256": "ce174c39c117892d29fbed71a33d84e78cba5350b4fac4196f9cdddac8a10f88", + "title": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to £2,000 per year from 6 April 2029", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2030-31", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": -714491346.3497609, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-714491346.3497609", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2030-31", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12342:8f33b3b6f2b603fd", + "source_row_number": 12342, + "source_row_sha256": "8f33b3b6f2b603fdf85124fb1113af5461d6d3cf3fe367c7a6e63913c647bf9e", + "title": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to £2,000 per year from 6 April 2029", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2025-26", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": 0.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "0.0", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2025-26", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12343:b79b48811830e061", + "source_row_number": 12343, + "source_row_sha256": "b79b48811830e061c9fa45c323a690b6159a1d066cfe93dc25ddf3124c45d2c7", + "title": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to £2,000 per year from 6 April 2029", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2026-27", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": -10729860.902800936, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-10729860.902800936", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2026-27", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12344:4e1c69b7573ca567", + "source_row_number": 12344, + "source_row_sha256": "4e1c69b7573ca56704c0a48616a92da9234dd7a56353517bfec52ddfcc04032d", + "title": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to £2,000 per year from 6 April 2029", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2027-28", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": -16095413.675439086, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-16095413.675439086", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2027-28", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12345:62f5602cdc68a152", + "source_row_number": 12345, + "source_row_sha256": "62f5602cdc68a15239f631beee8c23c10224c2caa012f494313880aa1a0d6257", + "title": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to £2,000 per year from 6 April 2029", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2028-29", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": -21459998.959731616, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-21459998.959731616", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2028-29", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12346:3b87f6a01f129a2e", + "source_row_number": 12346, + "source_row_sha256": "3b87f6a01f129a2e638f54d2b5bc377a9e489aab142f7f226e4338ea14c42e35", + "title": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to £2,000 per year from 6 April 2029", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2029-30", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": 3522669371.413509, + "value_gbp_decimal": "3522669371.413509", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2029-30", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. 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"gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.married_couples_allowance.deduction_rate", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.maximum_ANI", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.reduction_rate", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_savings_allowance.additional", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_savings_allowance.basic", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_savings_allowance.higher", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.property_allowance", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.trading_allowance", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings_starter_rate.allowance", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount", + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.additional", + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main", + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer", + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.lower_earnings_limit", + 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"gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.contribution.standard_child", + "gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.declaration_periods_per_year", + "gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.disqualifying_benefits", + "gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.countable_sources", + "gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.declaration_period_weeks", + "gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit", + "gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.minimum_weekly_hours", + "gov.local_authorities.england.council_tax_reduction.pensioners.maximum_support_rate", + "gov.local_authorities.england.council_tax_reduction.pensioners.means_test.capital_limit", + "gov.local_authorities.england.council_tax_reduction.pensioners.means_test.withdrawal_rate", + "gov.scottish_government.funded_early_learning_childcare.age.max", + "gov.scottish_government.funded_early_learning_childcare.age.min", + "gov.scottish_government.funded_early_learning_childcare.hours_per_year", + "gov.social_security_scotland.pawhp.eligibility.state_pension_age_requirement", + 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"childcare_grant_receives_postgraduate_loan", + "childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible", + "childcare_grant_uses_qualifying_provider", + "council_tax_reduction_household_has_pensioner", + "disabled_students_allowance", + "disabled_students_allowance_course_eligible", + "disabled_students_allowance_eligible", + "disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses", + "disabled_students_allowance_has_qualifying_condition", + "disabled_students_allowance_receives_equivalent_support", + "employee_pension_contributions", + "employee_pension_contributions_reported", + "employer_pension_contributions", + "extended_childcare_entitlement", + "extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible", + "extended_childcare_entitlement_meets_income_requirements", + "extended_childcare_entitlement_work_condition", + "housing_benefit_applicable_income_childcare_element", + "is_child_for_pension_credit", + "is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_pension_credit", + "is_child_receiving_extended_childcare", + 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+ "national_insurance", + "new_state_pension", + "parents_learning_allowance", + "parents_learning_allowance_course_eligible", + "parents_learning_allowance_dependent_children", + "parents_learning_allowance_eligible", + "parents_learning_allowance_household_income", + "partners_unused_personal_allowance", + "pension_annual_allowance", + "pension_contributions", + "pension_contributions_for_annual_allowance", + "pension_contributions_relief", + "pension_contributions_via_salary_sacrifice", + "pension_contributions_via_salary_sacrifice_adjusted", + "pension_credit", + "pension_credit_assessable_capital", + "pension_credit_deemed_income", + "pension_credit_earnings", + "pension_credit_entitlement", + "pension_credit_income", + "pension_credit_reported", + "pension_income", + "personal_allowance", + "personal_pension_contributions", + "personal_pension_contributions_tax", + "private_pension_income", + "property_allowance_deduction", + "received_allowances", + "received_allowances_dividend_income", + "received_allowances_earned_income", + "received_allowances_savings_income", + "receives_carers_allowance", + "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", + "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", + "savings_allowance", + "scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_eligible", + "scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_start_date_reached", + "state_pension", + "state_pension_age", + "state_pension_reported", + "state_pension_type", + "targeted_childcare_entitlement", + "targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible", + "tax_free_childcare", + "tax_free_childcare_child_age_eligible", + "tax_free_childcare_eligible", + "tax_free_childcare_eligible_declaration_periods", + "tax_free_childcare_expected_declaration_period_income", + "tax_free_childcare_meets_income_requirements", + "tax_free_childcare_meets_uk_connection", + "tax_free_childcare_on_adoption_leave", + "tax_free_childcare_on_qualifying_leave", + "tax_free_childcare_on_shared_parental_leave", + "tax_free_childcare_program_eligible", + "tax_free_childcare_qualifying_child", + "tax_free_childcare_self_employment_start_up_period", + "tax_free_childcare_treated_as_in_work", + "tax_free_childcare_uses_qualifying_provider", + "tax_free_childcare_work_condition", + "taxable_pension_income", + "total_national_insurance", + "total_pension_income", + "trading_allowance_deduction", + "uc_childcare_element", + "uc_childcare_element_eligible_children", + "uc_childcare_work_condition", + "uc_maximum_childcare_element_amount", + "uc_standard_allowance", + "uc_standard_allowance_claimant_type", + "uc_work_allowance", + "universal_childcare_entitlement", + "universal_childcare_entitlement_eligible", + "unused_personal_allowance", + "weekly_childcare_expenses", + "winter_fuel_allowance", + "winter_fuel_allowance_reported", + "would_claim_childcare_grant", + "would_claim_disabled_students_allowance", + "would_claim_extended_childcare", + "would_claim_marriage_allowance", + 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"gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.minimum_guarantee.COUPLE", + "gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.minimum_guarantee.SINGLE", + "gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.severe_disability.addition", + "gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.severe_disability.relevant_benefits", + "gov.dwp.pension_credit.income.capital.lower_threshold", + "gov.dwp.pension_credit.income.capital.sources", + "gov.dwp.pension_credit.income.capital.tariff_income.amount", + "gov.dwp.pension_credit.income.capital.tariff_income.step", + "gov.dwp.pension_credit.income.pension_contributions_deduction", + "gov.dwp.pension_credit.income.savings_credit_excluded_sources", + "gov.dwp.pension_credit.savings_credit.cutoff_year", + "gov.dwp.pension_credit.savings_credit.excluded_income", + "gov.dwp.pension_credit.savings_credit.rate.phase_in", + "gov.dwp.pension_credit.savings_credit.rate.phase_out", + "gov.dwp.pension_credit.savings_credit.threshold.COUPLE", + "gov.dwp.pension_credit.savings_credit.threshold.SINGLE", + "gov.dwp.pension_credit.takeup", + "gov.dwp.state_pension.age.female", + "gov.dwp.state_pension.age.male", + "gov.dwp.state_pension.basic_state_pension.amount", + "gov.dwp.state_pension.new_state_pension.active", + "gov.dwp.state_pension.new_state_pension.amount", + "gov.dwp.state_pension.triple_lock.active", + "gov.dwp.state_pension.triple_lock.include_earnings", + "gov.dwp.state_pension.triple_lock.include_inflation", + "gov.dwp.state_pension.triple_lock.minimum_rate", + "gov.dwp.state_pension.triple_lock.outturn", + "gov.dwp.tax_credits.working_tax_credit.elements.childcare_1", + "gov.dwp.tax_credits.working_tax_credit.elements.childcare_2", + "gov.dwp.tax_credits.working_tax_credit.elements.childcare_coverage", + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.childcare.cap.1", + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.childcare.cap.2", + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.childcare.coverage_rate", + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.work_allowance.with_housing", + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.work_allowance.without_housing", + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift", + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.COUPLE_OLD", + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.COUPLE_YOUNG", + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_OLD", + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_YOUNG", + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.claimant_type.age_threshold", + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.state_pension_age_requirement", + "gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.private_pension_index", + "gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.private_pension_index", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.annual_allowance.default", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.annual_allowance.minimum", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.annual_allowance.reduction_rate", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.annual_allowance.taper", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.dividend_allowance", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.marriage_allowance.eligible_bands", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.marriage_allowance.max", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.marriage_allowance.rounding_increment", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.marriage_allowance.takeup_rate", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.married_couples_allowance.deduction_rate", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.maximum_ANI", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.reduction_rate", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_savings_allowance.additional", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_savings_allowance.basic", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_savings_allowance.higher", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.property_allowance", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.trading_allowance", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings_starter_rate.allowance", + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount", + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.additional", + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main", + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer", + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.lower_earnings_limit", + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold", + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate", + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold", + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional", + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main", + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit", + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap", + "gov.hmrc.pensions.pension_contributions_relief_age_limit", + "gov.hmrc.pensions.pensions_programs", + "gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.age.disability", + "gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.age.standard", + "gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.contribution.disabled_child", + "gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.contribution.rate", + "gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.contribution.standard_child", + "gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.declaration_periods_per_year", + "gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.disqualifying_benefits", + "gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.countable_sources", + "gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.declaration_period_weeks", + "gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit", + "gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.minimum_weekly_hours", + "gov.local_authorities.england.council_tax_reduction.pensioners.maximum_support_rate", + "gov.local_authorities.england.council_tax_reduction.pensioners.means_test.capital_limit", + "gov.local_authorities.england.council_tax_reduction.pensioners.means_test.withdrawal_rate", + "gov.scottish_government.funded_early_learning_childcare.age.max", + "gov.scottish_government.funded_early_learning_childcare.age.min", + "gov.scottish_government.funded_early_learning_childcare.hours_per_year", + "gov.social_security_scotland.pawhp.eligibility.state_pension_age_requirement", + "gov.social_security_scotland.scottish_child_payment.qualifying_benefits.pension_credit", + "gov.treasury.cost_of_living_support.pensioners.amount", + "gov.treasury.cost_of_living_support.pensioners.qualifying_benefits" + ], + "variable_matches": [ + "BRMA_LHA_rate", + "LHA_allowed_bedrooms", + "LHA_cap", + "LHA_category", + "LHA_eligible", + "WTC_childcare_element", + "additional_state_pension", + "allowances", + "attendance_allowance", + "baseline_pension_credit_entitlement", + "basic_state_pension", + "blind_persons_allowance", + "capital_allowances", + "carers_allowance", + "carers_allowance_reported", + "childcare_expenses", + "childcare_grant", + "childcare_grant_child_eligible", + "childcare_grant_child_has_special_educational_needs", + "childcare_grant_eligible", + "childcare_grant_eligible_children", + "childcare_grant_full_time_student", + "childcare_grant_household_income", + "childcare_grant_provider_is_nanny", + "childcare_grant_receives_nhs_childcare_support", + "childcare_grant_receives_postgraduate_loan", + "childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible", + "childcare_grant_uses_qualifying_provider", + "council_tax_reduction_household_has_pensioner", + "disabled_students_allowance", + "disabled_students_allowance_course_eligible", + "disabled_students_allowance_eligible", + "disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses", + "disabled_students_allowance_has_qualifying_condition", + "disabled_students_allowance_receives_equivalent_support", + "employee_pension_contributions", + "employee_pension_contributions_reported", + "employer_pension_contributions", + "extended_childcare_entitlement", + "extended_childcare_entitlement_eligible", + "extended_childcare_entitlement_meets_income_requirements", + "extended_childcare_entitlement_work_condition", + "housing_benefit_applicable_income_childcare_element", + "is_child_for_pension_credit", + "is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_pension_credit", + "is_child_receiving_extended_childcare", + "is_child_receiving_targeted_childcare", + "is_child_receiving_tax_free_childcare", + "is_child_receiving_universal_childcare", + "is_pension_credit_eligible", + "is_qualifying_young_person_for_pension_credit", + "is_uc_work_allowance_eligible", + "marriage_allowance", + "married_couples_allowance", + "married_couples_allowance_deduction", + "maternity_allowance", + "maternity_allowance_reported", + "maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage", + "meets_child_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement", + "meets_marriage_allowance_income_conditions", + "meets_qualifying_young_person_age_condition_for_pension_credit", + "meets_qualifying_young_person_education_or_training_condition_for_pension_credit", + "meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_pension_credit", + "meets_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement", + "meets_universal_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement", + "meets_working_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement", + "national_insurance", + "new_state_pension", + "parents_learning_allowance", + "parents_learning_allowance_course_eligible", + "parents_learning_allowance_dependent_children", + "parents_learning_allowance_eligible", + "parents_learning_allowance_household_income", + "partners_unused_personal_allowance", + "pension_annual_allowance", + "pension_contributions", + "pension_contributions_for_annual_allowance", + "pension_contributions_relief", + "pension_contributions_via_salary_sacrifice", + "pension_contributions_via_salary_sacrifice_adjusted", + "pension_credit", + "pension_credit_assessable_capital", + "pension_credit_deemed_income", + "pension_credit_earnings", + "pension_credit_entitlement", + "pension_credit_income", + "pension_credit_reported", + "pension_income", + "personal_allowance", + "personal_pension_contributions", + "personal_pension_contributions_tax", + "private_pension_income", + "property_allowance_deduction", + "received_allowances", + "received_allowances_dividend_income", + "received_allowances_earned_income", + "received_allowances_savings_income", + "receives_carers_allowance", + "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", + "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", + "savings_allowance", + "scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_eligible", + "scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_start_date_reached", + "state_pension", + "state_pension_age", + "state_pension_reported", + "state_pension_type", + "targeted_childcare_entitlement", + "targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible", + "tax_free_childcare", + "tax_free_childcare_child_age_eligible", + "tax_free_childcare_eligible", + "tax_free_childcare_eligible_declaration_periods", + "tax_free_childcare_expected_declaration_period_income", + "tax_free_childcare_meets_income_requirements", + "tax_free_childcare_meets_uk_connection", + "tax_free_childcare_on_adoption_leave", + "tax_free_childcare_on_qualifying_leave", + "tax_free_childcare_on_shared_parental_leave", + "tax_free_childcare_program_eligible", + "tax_free_childcare_qualifying_child", + "tax_free_childcare_self_employment_start_up_period", + "tax_free_childcare_treated_as_in_work", + "tax_free_childcare_uses_qualifying_provider", + "tax_free_childcare_work_condition", + "taxable_pension_income", + "total_national_insurance", + "total_pension_income", + "trading_allowance_deduction", + "uc_childcare_element", + "uc_childcare_element_eligible_children", + "uc_childcare_work_condition", + "uc_maximum_childcare_element_amount", + "uc_standard_allowance", + "uc_standard_allowance_claimant_type", + "uc_work_allowance", + "universal_childcare_entitlement", + "universal_childcare_entitlement_eligible", + "unused_personal_allowance", + "weekly_childcare_expenses", + "winter_fuel_allowance", + "winter_fuel_allowance_reported", + "would_claim_childcare_grant", + "would_claim_disabled_students_allowance", + "would_claim_extended_childcare", + "would_claim_marriage_allowance", + "would_claim_parents_learning_allowance", + "would_claim_targeted_childcare", + "would_claim_universal_childcare" + ], + "engine_version": "2.89.2", + "searched": [ + "full_parameter_tree", + "full_variable_list" + ] + }, + "unmapped_obr_heads": [ + "Gross operating surplus", + "Income tax", + "Public corporations capital expenditure" + ], + "head_variables": [] + }, + { + "program": "income_tax", + "classification": "partial", + "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world", + "pe_baseline_modifier": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.maximum_taxable_income": { + "2025-01-01.2030-12-31": 0 + }, + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income": { + "2025-01-01.2030-12-31": false + } + }, + "heads": [ + { + "obr_head": "Income tax", + "pe_variables": [ + "income_tax" + ], + "channel": "tax" + }, + { + "obr_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "pe_variables": [ + "winter_fuel_allowance" + ], + "channel": "spending" + } + ], + "missing_legs": [ + "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland." + ], + "note": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland. Construction from the OBR costings lane (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml, #56).", + "commences_fy": "2025-26", + "pe_gap": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland.", + "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", + "title": "Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with taxable income below or equal to £35,000 from Winter 2025", + "reported_status": "announced", + "fiscal_event": "Autumn Budget 2025", + "computability": "partial", + "measure_type": "income_tax", + "source_rows": [ + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12714:7759d518d7c6f285", + "source_row_number": 12714, + "source_row_sha256": "7759d518d7c6f2853f3a7a9ec512b85b0d3452ddcca8335f077637d39e49cc17", + "title": "Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with taxable income below or equal to £35,000 from Winter 2025", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2025-26", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": 0.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "0.0", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2025-26", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12715:2f68d12cab62adaa", + "source_row_number": 12715, + "source_row_sha256": "2f68d12cab62adaad24ec1f863ed38f027d7f5962b3992cf8b687f85eefbb124", + "title": "Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with taxable income below or equal to £35,000 from Winter 2025", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2026-27", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": 408454519.8000001, + "value_gbp_decimal": "408454519.8000001", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2026-27", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12716:668d8da17b50bcad", + "source_row_number": 12716, + "source_row_sha256": "668d8da17b50bcadaaf59adb4e2fed370443a9c756de7f9510a49b04a46c69af", + "title": "Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with taxable income below or equal to £35,000 from Winter 2025", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2027-28", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": 891898111.2856009, + "value_gbp_decimal": "891898111.2856009", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2027-28", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12717:e1c2c1fcb5ce9548", + "source_row_number": 12717, + "source_row_sha256": "e1c2c1fcb5ce9548f6e5a8b10f661cd06a8833e037c7dfa7acd096c5ac661f4b", + "title": "Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with taxable income below or equal to £35,000 from Winter 2025", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2028-29", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": 490713760.68209356, + "value_gbp_decimal": "490713760.68209356", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2028-29", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12718:47d0bfcd7a27ba58", + "source_row_number": 12718, + "source_row_sha256": "47d0bfcd7a27ba5829059f7ce6c188724c62c85af66a283d13db9e408d332360", + "title": "Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with taxable income below or equal to £35,000 from Winter 2025", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2029-30", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": 526033114.55423284, + "value_gbp_decimal": "526033114.55423284", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2029-30", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12719:670f8310e3289a5b", + "source_row_number": 12719, + "source_row_sha256": "670f8310e3289a5b7e43c6ba57a6725158bf674c75789c8d0d8b0aede82f2187", + "title": "Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with taxable income below or equal to £35,000 from Winter 2025", + "metric": "revenue_change", + "fy": "2030-31", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "head_kind": "tax", + "value_gbp": 561696945.1324424, + "value_gbp_decimal": "561696945.1324424", + "source_table": "Tax Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2030-31", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24149:cb9c6124ee5756b0", + "source_row_number": 24149, + "source_row_sha256": "cb9c6124ee5756b029823765f374c1d8966d6fec8ead46fe2ba0ffa10c72387c", + "title": "Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with taxable income below or equal to £35,000 from Winter 2025", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2025-26", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -1661868000.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-1661868000.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2025-26", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24150:3a557c09d1d519f6", + "source_row_number": 24150, + "source_row_sha256": "3a557c09d1d519f6447194b2b8c47fd60896a8a09006dffcaa916867abc29b8b", + "title": "Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with taxable income below or equal to £35,000 from Winter 2025", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2026-27", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -1672203000.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-1672203000.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2026-27", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24151:5d9b3e6bbec76d40", + "source_row_number": 24151, + "source_row_sha256": "5d9b3e6bbec76d404d0db7a6171123ede9cee74a370111d4ec6e1579f6c6e2d4", + "title": "Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with taxable income below or equal to £35,000 from Winter 2025", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2027-28", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -1676337000.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-1676337000.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2027-28", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24152:3f0b4da150453149", + "source_row_number": 24152, + "source_row_sha256": "3f0b4da150453149c3c741d7d169852fc96a96bca9acbd0b39326d8d83d1def2", + "title": "Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with taxable income below or equal to £35,000 from Winter 2025", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2028-29", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -1693906500.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-1693906500.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2028-29", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24153:4598fca7589b9736", + "source_row_number": 24153, + "source_row_sha256": "4598fca7589b97364e621f7c78d34092045422d5d112941175e771880adddc02", + "title": "Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with taxable income below or equal to £35,000 from Winter 2025", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2029-30", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -1734246500.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-1734246500.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2029-30", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24154:67e883d6279cdc10", + "source_row_number": 24154, + "source_row_sha256": "67e883d6279cdc10cf099d1dc1a1cd4ef20eb08e4e2a13230648fde0532f762b", + "title": "Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with taxable income below or equal to £35,000 from Winter 2025", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2030-31", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -1753849500.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-1753849500.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2030-31", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24155:58c670cb9cae45ee", + "source_row_number": 24155, + "source_row_sha256": "58c670cb9cae45ee508811cc6118d79ddfdda667cdbcd924d5017b9419c14c63", + "title": "Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with taxable income below or equal to £35,000 from Winter 2025", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2025-26", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -123669551.661409, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-123669551.661409", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2025-26", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "classification_reason": "Source head is outside household 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The OBR also reports a Welfare outside cap row, but the harvest does not identify its program composition; CTC or devolved-offset mechanics are not assumed." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23536:b082924fa31ed31d", + "source_row_number": 23536, + "source_row_sha256": "b082924fa31ed31d9ca6a300946966dcb469b63c21323867424292c4aca3f8c1", + "title": "Universal Credit Child Element: Remove the two child limit from April 2026, taking 450,000 children out of poverty", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2030-31", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -550000000.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-550000000.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2030-31", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "partial", + "classification_reason": "Reverses the UC child-element limit from infinity to two. The OBR also reports a Welfare outside cap row, but the harvest does not identify its program composition; CTC or devolved-offset mechanics are not assumed." + } + ], + "divergence_axes": [ + "population_vintage", + "baseline_vintage", + "behavioural_adjustment", + "cy_proxies_fy", + "head_scope" + ], + "name_search": { + "pattern": "gov\\.dwp\\.universal_credit\\.elements\\.child\\.limit\\.child_count", + "parameter_matches": [ + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" + ], + "variable_matches": [], + "engine_version": "2.89.2", + "searched": [ + "full_parameter_tree", + "full_variable_list" + ] + }, + "unmapped_obr_heads": [ + "Welfare outside cap" + ], + "head_variables": [ + "universal_credit" + ], + "engine_baseline_by_year": { + "2025": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": 2 + }, + "2026": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": "inf" + }, + "2027": { + 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"gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[12].threshold", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[13].amount", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[13].threshold", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[1].amount", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[1].threshold", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[2].amount", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[2].threshold", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[3].amount", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[3].threshold", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[4].amount", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[4].threshold", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[5].amount", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[5].threshold", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[6].amount", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[6].threshold", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[7].amount", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[7].threshold", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[8].amount", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[8].threshold", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[9].amount", + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.statistics.residential.household.transactions_by_age[9].threshold", + "gov.social_security_scotland.pawhp.eligibility.higher_age_requirement", + "gov.social_security_scotland.pawhp.eligibility.require_benefits", + "gov.social_security_scotland.pawhp.eligibility.state_pension_age_requirement", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.non_residential[0].rate", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.non_residential[0].threshold", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.non_residential[1].rate", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.non_residential[1].threshold", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.non_residential[2].rate", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.non_residential[2].threshold", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.non_residential[3].rate", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.non_residential[3].threshold", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.rent[0].rate", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.rent[0].threshold", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.rent[1].rate", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.rent[1].threshold", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.rent[2].rate", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.rent[2].threshold", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.higher_rate[0].rate", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.higher_rate[0].threshold", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.higher_rate[1].rate", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.higher_rate[1].threshold", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.higher_rate[2].rate", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.higher_rate[2].threshold", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.higher_rate[3].rate", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.higher_rate[3].threshold", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.higher_rate[4].rate", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.higher_rate[4].threshold", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.higher_rate[5].rate", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.higher_rate[5].threshold", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.primary[0].rate", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.primary[0].threshold", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.primary[1].rate", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.primary[1].threshold", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.primary[2].rate", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.primary[2].threshold", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.primary[3].rate", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.primary[3].threshold", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.primary[4].rate", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.primary[4].threshold", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.primary[5].rate", + "gov.wra.land_transaction_tax.residential.primary[5].threshold" + ], + "variable_matches": [ + "land_and_buildings_transaction_tax", + "land_transaction_tax", + "lbtt_on_non_residential_property_transactions", + "lbtt_on_residential_property_transactions", + "lbtt_on_transactions", + "ltt_on_non_residential_property_transactions", + "ltt_on_residential_property_transactions", + "ltt_on_transactions", + "sdlt_on_non_residential_property_transactions", + "sdlt_on_residential_property_transactions", + "sdlt_on_transactions" + ], + "engine_version": "2.89.2", + "searched": [ + "full_parameter_tree", + "full_variable_list" + ] + }, + "unmapped_obr_heads": [ + "Scottish BGA (current)", + "Welfare inside cap" + ], + "head_variables": [] + }, + { + "program": "universal_credit", + "classification": "not_expressible", + "heads": [], + "construction": null, + "pe_reform_delta": null, + "pe_gap": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml).", + "missing_legs": [ + "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml)." + ], + "note": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml).", + "gap_kind": "construction_pending", + "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", + "title": "Universal Credit: Changes to the standard allowance and health element to protect existing claimants and new health element claimants who meet the Severe Conditions Criteria from April 2026", + "reported_status": "announced", + "fiscal_event": "Autumn Budget 2025", + "computability": "not_expressible", + "measure_type": "universal_credit", + "source_rows": [ + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24161:ff3458e95f40aeac", + "source_row_number": 24161, + "source_row_sha256": "ff3458e95f40aeaca6a23ea11957fa631dd35df63addec46667e50bcb4904f93", + "title": "Universal Credit: Changes to the standard allowance and health element to protect existing claimants and new health element claimants who meet the Severe Conditions Criteria from April 2026", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2025-26", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": 0.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "0.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2025-26", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "not_expressible", + "classification_reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml)." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24162:f3593cc388660e45", + "source_row_number": 24162, + "source_row_sha256": "f3593cc388660e45771303fb4abcc88adb1e877b8e4e9f79a61017f6b32e4290", + "title": "Universal Credit: Changes to the standard allowance and health element to protect existing claimants and new health element claimants who meet the Severe Conditions Criteria from April 2026", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2026-27", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -240842500.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-240842500.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2026-27", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "not_expressible", + "classification_reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml)." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24163:f59db18b67f43638", + "source_row_number": 24163, + "source_row_sha256": "f59db18b67f43638a4bbb06232dda52524e2d18abfd4972d2e4d2c146ed1457b", + "title": "Universal Credit: Changes to the standard allowance and health element to protect existing claimants and new health element claimants who meet the Severe Conditions Criteria from April 2026", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2027-28", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -472120500.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-472120500.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2027-28", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "not_expressible", + "classification_reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml)." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24164:59bbc18ef2b0b52d", + "source_row_number": 24164, + "source_row_sha256": "59bbc18ef2b0b52dcf8f2db654abfada2482949314d88e80c78ce0b6711b7f29", + "title": "Universal Credit: Changes to the standard allowance and health element to protect existing claimants and new health element claimants who meet the Severe Conditions Criteria from April 2026", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2028-29", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -625231000.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-625231000.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2028-29", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "not_expressible", + "classification_reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml)." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24165:4f19021cc0e7d307", + "source_row_number": 24165, + "source_row_sha256": "4f19021cc0e7d307fb192befc149084e76e087819917bbb237ba7c83b47490ea", + "title": "Universal Credit: Changes to the standard allowance and health element to protect existing claimants and new health element claimants who meet the Severe Conditions Criteria from April 2026", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2029-30", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -785341500.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-785341500.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2029-30", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "not_expressible", + "classification_reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml)." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24166:85ffe731d4ccc746", + "source_row_number": 24166, + "source_row_sha256": "85ffe731d4ccc7467bc5395ed83f5f4162820ebd7d4916db0276de32c625b74d", + "title": "Universal Credit: Changes to the standard allowance and health element to protect existing claimants and new health element claimants who meet the Severe Conditions Criteria from April 2026", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2030-31", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -938212500.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-938212500.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2030-31", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "not_expressible", + "classification_reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml)." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24167:b7d226aed2b73179", + "source_row_number": 24167, + "source_row_sha256": "b7d226aed2b73179b3689ec78b72581c28fa62df9dd237ff1206184e24dc66ef", + "title": "Universal Credit: Changes to the standard allowance and health element to protect existing claimants and new health element claimants who meet the Severe Conditions Criteria from April 2026", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2025-26", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": 0.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "0.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2025-26", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "not_expressible", + "classification_reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml)." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24168:e263694dff91b3fc", + "source_row_number": 24168, + "source_row_sha256": "e263694dff91b3fc36d44bb65ead06b3ee8ad272029db8d136c85aefa2dd1746", + "title": "Universal Credit: Changes to the standard allowance and health element to protect existing claimants and new health element claimants who meet the Severe Conditions Criteria from April 2026", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2026-27", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -3000000.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-3000000.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2026-27", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "not_expressible", + "classification_reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml)." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24169:844d917cd0915daa", + "source_row_number": 24169, + "source_row_sha256": "844d917cd0915daaa6f35cf6a035460f62cfa1cf40eaa1ec71428ca82c5d85ef", + "title": "Universal Credit: Changes to the standard allowance and health element to protect existing claimants and new health element claimants who meet the Severe Conditions Criteria from April 2026", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2027-28", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -4000000.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-4000000.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2027-28", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "not_expressible", + "classification_reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml)." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24170:6eb0f852198750c1", + "source_row_number": 24170, + "source_row_sha256": "6eb0f852198750c173acecac4916dd1deaf4376ee3d144ede40a765cd6b9b786", + "title": "Universal Credit: Changes to the standard allowance and health element to protect existing claimants and new health element claimants who meet the Severe Conditions Criteria from April 2026", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2028-29", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -5000000.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-5000000.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2028-29", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "not_expressible", + "classification_reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml)." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24171:520ce711e49335b1", + "source_row_number": 24171, + "source_row_sha256": "520ce711e49335b110d29334514c5d0f6179ecddb83a55d535bb926c95babdb6", + "title": "Universal Credit: Changes to the standard allowance and health element to protect existing claimants and new health element claimants who meet the Severe Conditions Criteria from April 2026", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2029-30", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -6000000.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-6000000.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2029-30", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "not_expressible", + "classification_reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml)." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24172:e92854afca7c8e71", + "source_row_number": 24172, + "source_row_sha256": "e92854afca7c8e711723e80c2e9bb61c98e67cd3b4e05e1eeda1be262bb1c2f6", + "title": "Universal Credit: Changes to the standard allowance and health element to protect existing claimants and new health element claimants who meet the Severe Conditions Criteria from April 2026", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2030-31", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -6000000.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-6000000.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2030-31", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "not_expressible", + "classification_reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml)." + } + ], + "divergence_axes": [ + "population_vintage", + "baseline_vintage", + "behavioural_adjustment", + "cy_proxies_fy", + "head_scope" + ], + "name_search": { + "pattern": "rebalancing|health_element|severe_conditions", + "parameter_matches": [ + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active", + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element", + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift" + ], + "variable_matches": [], + "engine_version": "2.89.2", + "searched": [ + "full_parameter_tree", + "full_variable_list" + ] + }, + "unmapped_obr_heads": [ + "Welfare inside cap", + "Welfare outside cap" + ], + "head_variables": [] + }, + { + "program": "scope", + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "heads": [], + "construction": null, + "pe_reform_delta": null, + "pe_gap": "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; 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retained for event accounting." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24296:2ec081b2e1de52f6", + "source_row_number": 24296, + "source_row_sha256": "2ec081b2e1de52f66557f1d52fd28786ef4f942c5807ce692d77a82eba1579dc", + "title": "SEND: Manage SEND pressures within overall DEL envelope from 28-30", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2028-29", + "tax_head": "Locally-financed capital expenditure", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -1804000000.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-1804000000.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2028-29", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "classification_reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24297:0daac32b751ce485", + "source_row_number": 24297, + "source_row_sha256": "0daac32b751ce485ea0b974e3f3a76be6881991be540ae3577972732c2928c58", + "title": "SEND: Manage SEND pressures within overall DEL envelope from 28-30", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2029-30", + "tax_head": "Locally-financed capital expenditure", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -3389000000.0000005, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-3389000000.0000005", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2029-30", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "classification_reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24298:6494229a2caf6a03", + "source_row_number": 24298, + "source_row_sha256": "6494229a2caf6a0366ec2c831e0eccac827032629c1243698198605154c315d9", + "title": "SEND: Manage SEND pressures within overall DEL envelope from 28-30", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2030-31", + "tax_head": "Locally-financed capital expenditure", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -5079000000.000001, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-5079000000.000001", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2030-31", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "classification_reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting." + } + ], + "divergence_axes": [ + "population_vintage", + "baseline_vintage", + "behavioural_adjustment", + "cy_proxies_fy", + "head_scope" + ], + "name_search": { + "pattern": "firm|corporation|department|block_grant", + "parameter_matches": [], + "variable_matches": [], + "engine_version": "2.89.2", + "searched": [ + "full_parameter_tree", + "full_variable_list" + ] + }, + "unmapped_obr_heads": [ + "Locally-financed capital expenditure" + ], + "head_variables": [] + }, + { + "program": "scope", + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "heads": [], + "construction": null, + "pe_reform_delta": null, + "pe_gap": "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads.", + "missing_legs": [ + "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads." + ], + "note": "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads.", + "gap_kind": "out_of_household_scope", + "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__obr_allowance_for_shortfall_assumptions_psce_in_rdel", + "title": "OBR Allowance for Shortfall assumptions - PSCE in RDEL", + "reported_status": "announced", + "fiscal_event": "Autumn Budget 2025", + "computability": "out_of_household_scope", + "measure_type": "scope", + "source_rows": [ + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24299:bea583c533b8b760", + "source_row_number": 24299, + "source_row_sha256": "bea583c533b8b760707507524dedbe5156f73732bb245f65477236ba7885ef66", + "title": "OBR Allowance for Shortfall assumptions - PSCE in RDEL", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2025-26", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": 0.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "0.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2025-26", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "classification_reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24300:18facb0475e9ef86", + "source_row_number": 24300, + "source_row_sha256": "18facb0475e9ef860fbac2d27c35cbf406f4191aefabc5a4f0d5733cbe6bb5bd", + "title": "OBR Allowance for Shortfall assumptions - PSCE in RDEL", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2026-27", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": 0.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "0.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2026-27", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "classification_reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24301:ed5a93a87bde8ebf", + "source_row_number": 24301, + "source_row_sha256": "ed5a93a87bde8ebf7b06ecaa490151d20de8e728bb05baf10961a019ded83cf0", + "title": "OBR Allowance for Shortfall assumptions - PSCE in RDEL", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2027-28", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": 0.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "0.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2027-28", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "classification_reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24302:fdfdefc28aebc610", + "source_row_number": 24302, + "source_row_sha256": "fdfdefc28aebc610545bd9bca7dcceb2c8b7f96557f065a8621498b4e60c9872", + "title": "OBR Allowance for Shortfall assumptions - PSCE in RDEL", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2028-29", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": -1940000000.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "-1940000000.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2028-29", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "classification_reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24303:5c00836cbfb4d349", + "source_row_number": 24303, + "source_row_sha256": "5c00836cbfb4d34905f99e296b7e6cbf1ffe080fc8ca26b1a709ad5032b18a8b", + "title": "OBR Allowance for Shortfall assumptions - PSCE in RDEL", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2029-30", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": 0.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "0.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2029-30", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "classification_reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting." + }, + { + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24304:f5b1ffb84b750a51", + "source_row_number": 24304, + "source_row_sha256": "f5b1ffb84b750a514940bac22f8bf1d61d738a80296475cb80880f858c41ff37", + "title": "OBR Allowance for Shortfall assumptions - PSCE in RDEL", + "metric": "exchequer_impact", + "fy": "2030-31", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "head_kind": "spending", + "value_gbp": 0.0, + "value_gbp_decimal": "0.0", + "source_table": "Spending Measures (Policy measures database)", + "source_column": "2030-31", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "classification_reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting." + } + ], + "divergence_axes": [ + "population_vintage", + "baseline_vintage", + "behavioural_adjustment", + "cy_proxies_fy", + "head_scope" + ], + "name_search": { + "pattern": "firm|corporation|department|block_grant", + "parameter_matches": [], + "variable_matches": [], + "engine_version": "2.89.2", + "searched": [ + "full_parameter_tree", + "full_variable_list" + ] + }, + "unmapped_obr_heads": [ + "PSCE in RDEL" + ], + "head_variables": [] + } + ] +} diff --git a/docs/uk_replay/QUALIFICATION_INTERFACE.md b/docs/uk_replay/QUALIFICATION_INTERFACE.md index cc637e13c..cba30df0c 100644 --- a/docs/uk_replay/QUALIFICATION_INTERFACE.md +++ b/docs/uk_replay/QUALIFICATION_INTERFACE.md @@ -197,7 +197,7 @@ that file through the namespace manifest. "runner": "github-actions ubuntu-latest" }, "corpus": { - "corpus_version": "uk-fiscal-event-replay/1", + "corpus_version": "uk-fiscal-event-replay/2", "events": { "autumn_budget_2024": { "registry_sha256": "…", @@ -232,6 +232,12 @@ that file through the namespace manifest. } ``` +`corpus_version` names the event set the run replayed. +`uk-fiscal-event-replay/1` is the five events from Spring Budget 2023 to +Spring Statement 2025; `uk-fiscal-event-replay/2` adds Autumn Budget 2025. +In a diff against a base replayed under an earlier version, an added event +has `present.base` false and its rows carry no base values. + A complete receipt requires `variant_identity_sha256` and `results.manifest_sha256`. A failed receipt has `corpus: null` when no event produced outputs. If receipt building, sealing or result copying crashes, diff --git a/docs/uk_replay/RECIPE.md b/docs/uk_replay/RECIPE.md index 7ae6a3023..4b648ec8d 100644 --- a/docs/uk_replay/RECIPE.md +++ b/docs/uk_replay/RECIPE.md @@ -499,8 +499,8 @@ only when the host has capacity and no other lane is simulating. Each worker holds one live managed simulation and reuses one certified baseline extraction per year across measures. Keep independently launched event processes within that same global two-simulation cap. Follow the requested event order: Autumn Budget 2024, -Autumn Statement 2023, Spring Budget 2024, Spring Statement 2025, then Spring -Budget 2023. +Autumn Statement 2023, Spring Budget 2024, Spring Statement 2025, Spring +Budget 2023, then Autumn Budget 2025. Expected run time is proportional to supported years times changed worlds, plus one baseline per year. Historical mode-2 runs recorded a 36.99s median diff --git a/docs/uk_replay/RELEASE_REPLAY.md b/docs/uk_replay/RELEASE_REPLAY.md index 604e05ddc..9007ed74a 100644 --- a/docs/uk_replay/RELEASE_REPLAY.md +++ b/docs/uk_replay/RELEASE_REPLAY.md @@ -202,7 +202,9 @@ FY2023–24 counterparts; that loss is shown, never hidden. * Legacy results stay where they are, in `results/uk/events//`. * Every other variant writes to `results/uk/replays//`: `/` (the same files as a legacy event directory), `SUMMARY.md`, - `SUPPORT.json`, `CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json`, `MODEL_DIAGNOSTICS.json`, + `SUPPORT.json`, `CORPUS.json` (a qualification run's corpus version and + events, written before any event runs), `CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json`, + `MODEL_DIAGNOSTICS.json`, `REQUEST.json` (the re-serialised qualification request the run answers), `INSTALL.json` (whether installation used the certified requirements, certified constraints or free resolution), and finally @@ -262,6 +264,18 @@ measured issue candidates as current only when the re-verified status is ## Construction premises +A namespace's premises and its `SUMMARY.md` cover the same events +(`uk_replay_variants.namespace_events`). A qualification run records its +corpus in `CORPUS.json` (corpus version and events) before replaying any +event, and that record decides. Without one (the legacy namespace, or a +namespace holding no run), they cover the events it holds results for (an +event directory with `RUN_MANIFEST.json`), or every registered replay event +when it holds none. A namespace whose bytes a seal or a release diff binds (a +diff records each side's premises digest) therefore keeps them when a later +event is registered, even if every event of its run failed. A qualification +run writes its summary last, after the re-verified diagnostics, which the +summary renders. + `pipeline/audit_uk_event_premises.py` records, for each executable measure, year and parameter path the construction touches, on a given engine: current-law value at the annual lookup (1 January of the year), the raw diff --git a/docs/uk_replay/YEARS.md b/docs/uk_replay/YEARS.md index f1c8622f8..cda97024e 100644 --- a/docs/uk_replay/YEARS.md +++ b/docs/uk_replay/YEARS.md @@ -3,7 +3,8 @@ The supported calendar-year window for this lane is **2023 through 2030**, inclusive. Calendar year Y proxies OBR fiscal year Y–(Y+1). Autumn Budget 2024 can therefore be run across its complete 2024–25 through 2029–30 -costing window. This is support for a projection of one population, with +costing window, and Autumn Budget 2025, the sixth replayed event, across its +2025–26 through 2030–31 window. This is support for a projection of one population, with named vintage differences; it does not establish a population or forecast matched to each historical event. diff --git a/pipeline/audit_uk_event_premises.py b/pipeline/audit_uk_event_premises.py index 93fcec4c6..9e9286246 100644 --- a/pipeline/audit_uk_event_premises.py +++ b/pipeline/audit_uk_event_premises.py @@ -339,11 +339,23 @@ def canonical_bytes(value: Any) -> bytes: ).encode() +def namespace_events(root: Path) -> list[str]: + """The events a namespace's premises cover (uk_replay_variants.namespace_events).""" + from pipeline import uk_replay_variants as variants + + return variants.namespace_events(root) + + def main(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> int: parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__.split("\n\n")[0]) selection = parser.add_mutually_exclusive_group(required=True) selection.add_argument("--events", nargs="+", choices=EVENTS) selection.add_argument("--all", action="store_true") + selection.add_argument( + "--namespace", + type=Path, + help="cover the events this namespace holds results for (every event if none)", + ) parser.add_argument("--expect-engine", required=True) parser.add_argument("--output", type=Path, required=True) parser.add_argument("--check", action="store_true") @@ -354,7 +366,14 @@ def main(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> int: f"policyengine-uk {installed} installed; expected {args.expect_engine}" ) payload = canonical_bytes( - audit(list(EVENTS) if args.all else args.events, EngineView()) + audit( + list(EVENTS) + if args.all + else namespace_events(args.namespace) + if args.namespace + else args.events, + EngineView(), + ) ) if args.check: if not args.output.is_file() or args.output.read_bytes() != payload: diff --git a/pipeline/build_uk_event_registry.py b/pipeline/build_uk_event_registry.py index 1abce0e89..d260f1e5f 100644 --- a/pipeline/build_uk_event_registry.py +++ b/pipeline/build_uk_event_registry.py @@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ import gzip import hashlib import json +import math import os import re from collections import Counter, defaultdict @@ -36,6 +37,30 @@ "spring_budget_2024": "Spring Budget 2024", "spring_statement_2025": "Spring Statement 2025", "spring_budget_2023": "Spring Budget 2023", + "autumn_budget_2025": "Autumn Budget 2025", +} +# Autumn Budget 2025's constructions are not re-authored here: the OBR +# costings lane's reviewed reversals (#56) are matched by verbatim PMD title, +# and #136's high-value council tax surcharge reversal by its registry key. +AB2025_COSTINGS = ROOT / "data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml" +AB2025_REGISTRY = ROOT / "data/uk/ab2025_measures.json" +INVENTORY = ROOT / "data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl" +AB2025_GAPS = { + "Fuel Duty: Cancel uprating for 2026-27": ( + "The announcement is a within-year path (per the PMD title: the 5p cut extended to 31 August 2026, then 1p, 2p and 2p increases from 1 September 2026, 1 December 2026 and 1 March 2027). The replay executor takes only annual windows read at 1 January (pipeline/compute_uk_event.py annual_reform), which cannot express it, so an annual counterfactual is not guessed. #136 records a dated pre-Budget path from the OBR pre-measures forecast (ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27 in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json) for a later part-year construction.", + "fuel_duty", + r"fuel_duty|petrol|diesel", + ), + "Carer’s Allowance Review: Reassess overpayments": ( + "Administrative reassessment of past Carer's Allowance overpayments (per the PMD title, 2015 to 2025); liability rules do not identify recovered debts or the reassessment process, so there is no household tax-benefit construction.", + "administration", + r"carers_allowance|overpayment|debt", + ), + "Universal Credit: Changes to the standard allowance and health element": ( + "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml).", + "universal_credit", + r"rebalancing|health_element|severe_conditions", + ), } CLASSES = ("expressible", "partial", "not_expressible", "out_of_household_scope") AXES = [ @@ -98,6 +123,14 @@ def canonical_bytes(value): ).encode() +def json_scalar(value): + """An engine value JSON can hold: infinities named as in the premises + audit (an abolished limit is +inf), so registry bytes stay strict JSON.""" + if isinstance(value, float) and math.isinf(value): + return "inf" if value > 0 else "-inf" + return value + + def slugify(text): return re.sub(r"[^a-z0-9]+", "_", text.lower()).strip("_") @@ -258,12 +291,116 @@ def _head(name, variables, channel="tax"): return {"obr_head": name, "pe_variables": variables, "channel": channel} +def inventory_registry_keys(event_slug): + """Autumn Budget 2025's measure keys are the replay inventory's: #136's + key where the inventory records one (existing_registry_key), else the + inventory's own measure_key. The scorecard DB ingest joins registry + measures to inventory rows on them and keys the published scores by them + (scorecard_db/ingest_obr_pmd.py), so any other key would re-key scores + that already publish. The five earlier events keep their frozen keys.""" + if event_slug != "autumn_budget_2025": + return {} + keys = defaultdict(set) + with INVENTORY.open() as lines: + for line in lines: + row = json.loads(line) + if row["event_key"] == event_slug: + keys[row["measure"].strip()].add( + row.get("existing_registry_key") or row["measure_key"] + ) + if any(len(k) != 1 for k in keys.values()): + raise ValueError("an inventory measure has more than one registry key") + canonical = {title: key for title, (key,) in keys.items()} + if len(set(canonical.values())) != len(canonical): + raise ValueError("two inventory measures share a registry key") + return canonical + + +def first_window_year(spec): + """The first calendar year any of a construction's dated windows reads.""" + return min(int(window[:4]) for windows in spec.values() for window in windows) + + +def ab2025_construction(title): + """The reviewed Autumn Budget 2025 construction for a PMD title, if any. + + A measure commences in the first year its reversal windows read: the + costings lane's start_fy is the first year with a nonzero OBR costing, + which can precede the mechanism (an anticipatory row), and staging + treats identical worlds from commencement on as inert. + """ + import yaml + + for measure in yaml.safe_load(AB2025_COSTINGS.read_text())["measures"]: + # The costings lane keeps the OBR description verbatim, padding + # included; the PMD title is matched without it. + if (measure.get("obr_description") or "").strip() != title.strip(): + continue + if not measure.get("pe_reform"): + return None + heads = [ + { + "obr_head": h["obr_head"], + "pe_variables": h["pe_variables"], + "channel": h["channel"], + } + for h in measure.get("heads", []) + ] + partial = measure["computability"] == "partial" + note = " ".join(str(measure.get("notes", "")).split()) + return _construct( + measure["measure_key"].removeprefix("autumn_budget_2025__"), + {"Income tax": "income_tax", "NICs": "national_insurance"}.get( + heads[0]["obr_head"] if heads else "", "tax_benefit" + ), + measure["pe_reform"], + heads, + partial=[note] if partial else None, + note=note + + " Construction from the OBR costings lane (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml, #56).", + start=first_window_year(measure["pe_reform"]), + ) + if title.startswith("High Value Council Tax Surcharge:"): + registry = json.loads(AB2025_REGISTRY.read_text()) + (entry,) = [ + e + for e in registry["measures"] + if e["measure_key"] == "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge" + ] + # #136 keys values by year; the executor takes dated windows. + spec = {} + for path, by_year in entry["pe_baseline_modifier"].items(): + years = sorted(int(y) for y in by_year) + if ( + years != list(range(years[0], years[-1] + 1)) + or len({by_year[str(y)] for y in years}) != 1 + ): + raise ValueError(f"{path}: #136 values are not one constant run") + spec[path] = {f"{years[0]}-01-01.{years[-1]}-12-31": by_year[str(years[0])]} + return _construct( + "high_value_council_tax_surcharge", + "council_tax", + spec, + [ + _head( + "High-value council tax surcharge", + ["high_value_council_tax_surcharge"], + ) + ], + note="Reverses the four surcharge band amounts to zero, as #136's registry does (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json), from 2028, the PMD title's 1 April 2028 start.", + start=first_window_year(spec), + ) + return None + + def authored_construction(event_slug, title, resolve): """Announcement levers, applied as marginal reversals on the certified world. Later policy already in that world is retained. This is an explicit construction and is never labelled the OBR's announcement baseline. """ + if event_slug == "autumn_budget_2025": + return ab2025_construction(title) rate1 = "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" rate4 = "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main" tax_nic_heads = [ @@ -608,6 +745,9 @@ def authored_construction(event_slug, title, resolve): def gap_reason(title, rows): + for prefix, (why, program, search) in AB2025_GAPS.items(): + if title.startswith(prefix): + return "not_expressible", why, program, search low = title.lower() if ( low.startswith("special education needs and disabilities:") @@ -748,6 +888,7 @@ def build_registry(event_slug, engine_parameters, engine_variables, resolve): grouped[row["title"]].append(row) years = sorted({int(r["fy"][:4]) for r in rows if 2023 <= int(r["fy"][:4]) <= 2030}) measures = [] + canonical_keys = inventory_registry_keys(event_slug) for title, rs in grouped.items(): authored = authored_construction(event_slug, title, resolve) if authored: @@ -800,7 +941,9 @@ def build_registry(event_slug, engine_parameters, engine_variables, resolve): vh = sorted(v for v in engine_variables if rx.search(v)) m.update( { - "measure_key": f"{event_slug}__{key}", + "measure_key": canonical_keys.get( + title.strip(), f"{event_slug}__{key}" + ), "title": title, "reported_status": "announced", "fiscal_event": event_name, @@ -846,7 +989,9 @@ def build_registry(event_slug, engine_parameters, engine_variables, resolve): spec = m.get("pe_baseline_modifier") or m.get("pe_reform_delta") or {} if spec: m["engine_baseline_by_year"] = { - str(y): {path: resolve(path, f"{y}-06-01") for path in spec} + str(y): { + path: json_scalar(resolve(path, f"{y}-06-01")) for path in spec + } for y in years } for path in spec: @@ -912,7 +1057,7 @@ def main(): p.add_argument( "--event", required=True, - help="Slug of any fiscal event in the pinned source; 'all' builds the five pilot events.", + help="Slug of any fiscal event in the pinned source; 'all' builds every replayed event.", ) p.add_argument("--check", action="store_true") args = p.parse_args() diff --git a/pipeline/compare_uk_event.py b/pipeline/compare_uk_event.py index 796ef66ca..4c3823acd 100644 --- a/pipeline/compare_uk_event.py +++ b/pipeline/compare_uk_event.py @@ -1639,6 +1639,15 @@ def write_summary(events_root: Path, *, artifact_root: Path = ROOT) -> None: (artifact_root / "data" / "uk" / "events").glob("*_measures.json") ) } + # A namespace summarises the events its premises cover + # (uk_replay_variants.namespace_events): a sealed or diff-bound + # namespace's summary then regenerates byte for byte after a later event + # is registered, and historical registries (source accounting only) + # appear in no replay namespace's summary. + covered = set(variants.namespace_events(events_root)) + registries = { + event: registry for event, registry in registries.items() if event in covered + } identities = { json.dumps( { diff --git a/pipeline/modal_uk_event.py b/pipeline/modal_uk_event.py index 02be35bbb..e8e8160fd 100644 --- a/pipeline/modal_uk_event.py +++ b/pipeline/modal_uk_event.py @@ -59,6 +59,7 @@ "spring_budget_2024", "spring_statement_2025", "spring_budget_2023", + "autumn_budget_2025", ) ENGINE_PINS = { "policyengine": "5.0.2", diff --git a/pipeline/uk_replay_qualify.py b/pipeline/uk_replay_qualify.py index 6129a3d58..8c45d91d2 100644 --- a/pipeline/uk_replay_qualify.py +++ b/pipeline/uk_replay_qualify.py @@ -51,8 +51,11 @@ "spring_budget_2024", "spring_statement_2025", "spring_budget_2023", + "autumn_budget_2025", ) -CORPUS_VERSION = "uk-fiscal-event-replay/1" +# The version names the event set: /1 is the five events from Spring Budget +# 2023 to Spring Statement 2025; /2 adds Autumn Budget 2025. +CORPUS_VERSION = "uk-fiscal-event-replay/2" REJECTION_CODES = ( "schema_invalid", "artifact_hash_mismatch", @@ -540,6 +543,11 @@ def run_corpus( namespace = variants.namespace_root(record, root=root) variants.assert_not_sealed(namespace, root=root) namespace.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + # Before any event runs, so the namespace's premises and summary cover + # this corpus whichever events produce results. + (namespace / variants.CORPUS_NAME).write_bytes( + canonical_bytes({"corpus_version": CORPUS_VERSION, "events": list(events)}) + ) failures = [] for event in events: output = namespace / event @@ -593,23 +601,16 @@ def run_corpus( failures.append( {"code": "event_run_failed", "detail": str(exc), "event": event} ) - run( - [ - python, - "pipeline/compare_uk_event.py", - "--summary", - "--events-root", - str(namespace), - ], - cwd=root, - ) engine = record["identity"]["packages"]["policyengine-uk"]["version"] run( [ python, "-m", "pipeline.audit_uk_event_premises", - "--all", + # The events this namespace holds results for (audit + # namespace_events), so a sealed namespace's premises regenerate. + "--namespace", + str(namespace), "--expect-engine", engine, "--output", @@ -630,6 +631,18 @@ def run_corpus( ], cwd=root, ) + # Last, so the summary renders the diagnostics beside it, as CI's + # regeneration of the sealed namespace does. + run( + [ + python, + "pipeline/compare_uk_event.py", + "--summary", + "--events-root", + str(namespace), + ], + cwd=root, + ) support = {} for event in events: manifest_path = namespace / event / "RUN_MANIFEST.json" diff --git a/pipeline/uk_replay_variants.py b/pipeline/uk_replay_variants.py index d7d8ff4d8..35d8af8f6 100644 --- a/pipeline/uk_replay_variants.py +++ b/pipeline/uk_replay_variants.py @@ -862,6 +862,33 @@ def event_output_dir(record: dict, event: str, *, root: Path = ROOT) -> Path: return namespace_root(record, root=root) / event +CORPUS_NAME = "CORPUS.json" + + +def namespace_events(root: Path) -> list[str]: + """The registered events a namespace's premises and summary cover. + + A qualification run records its corpus in CORPUS.json before replaying + any event, so its event set never depends on which events produced + results: a sealed namespace whose events all failed regenerates the same + bytes after another event is registered. Without that record (the legacy + namespace, or an inventory namespace that holds no run), the events it + holds results for (an event directory with RUN_MANIFEST.json), or every + registered event when it holds none.""" + from pipeline.build_uk_event_registry import EVENTS + + registered = list(EVENTS) + corpus = root / CORPUS_NAME + if corpus.is_file(): + listed = json.loads(corpus.read_bytes())["events"] + unknown = sorted(set(listed) - set(registered)) + if unknown: + raise VariantError(f"{corpus}: unregistered events {unknown}") + return [event for event in registered if event in listed] + held = [e for e in registered if (root / e / "RUN_MANIFEST.json").is_file()] + return held or registered + + def sealing_receipt(path: Path, *, root: Path = ROOT) -> Path | None: """The REPLAY_RECEIPT.json sealing a directory or one of its parents.""" path = path.resolve() diff --git a/results/uk/replays/pe6.2.6_uk2.125.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0/CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json b/results/uk/replays/pe6.2.6_uk2.125.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0/CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json index d69cd34b9..550c98935 100644 --- a/results/uk/replays/pe6.2.6_uk2.125.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0/CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json +++ b/results/uk/replays/pe6.2.6_uk2.125.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0/CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json @@ -852,6 +852,1496 @@ }, "registry_sha256": "89784d34920fb2d6aae702fb4028f84d7bf87f1694df77a0c9c5d255edbcdd34" }, + "autumn_budget_2025": { + "measures": { + "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp": { + "checks": { + "annual_value_matches_30_april_sample": { + "detail": "every touched path is sampled at 30 April", + "holds": true + }, + "authored_construction_reproduces": { + "detail": "re-authoring with this engine's parameters reproduces the registry", + "holds": true + }, + "forward_delta_changes_current_law": { + "detail": "not a forward delta", + "holds": null + }, + "reversal_differs_from_current_law": { + "detail": "the reversal differs from current law in an in-force year", + "holds": true + } + }, + "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world", + "years": { + "2025": { + "in_force": false, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate": { + "baseline_world": 0.0875, + "current_law": 0.0875, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.0875, + "reform_world": 0.0875 + }, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate": { + "baseline_world": 0.3375, + "current_law": 0.3375, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.3375, + "reform_world": 0.3375 + } + } + }, + "2026": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate": { + "baseline_world": 0.0875, + "current_law": 0.1075, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.1075, + "reform_world": 0.1075 + }, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate": { + "baseline_world": 0.3375, + "current_law": 0.3575, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.3575, + "reform_world": 0.3575 + } + } + }, + "2027": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate": { + "baseline_world": 0.0875, + "current_law": 0.1075, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.1075, + "reform_world": 0.1075 + }, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate": { + "baseline_world": 0.3375, + "current_law": 0.3575, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.3575, + "reform_world": 0.3575 + } + } + }, + "2028": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate": { + "baseline_world": 0.0875, + "current_law": 0.1075, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.1075, + "reform_world": 0.1075 + }, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate": { + "baseline_world": 0.3375, + "current_law": 0.3575, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.3575, + "reform_world": 0.3575 + } + } + }, + "2029": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate": { + "baseline_world": 0.0875, + "current_law": 0.1075, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.1075, + "reform_world": 0.1075 + }, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate": { + "baseline_world": 0.3375, + "current_law": 0.3575, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.3575, + "reform_world": 0.3575 + } + } + }, + "2030": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate": { + "baseline_world": 0.0875, + "current_law": 0.1075, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.1075, + "reform_world": 0.1075 + }, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate": { + "baseline_world": 0.3375, + "current_law": 0.3575, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.3575, + "reform_world": 0.3575 + } + } + } + } + }, + "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031": { + "checks": { + "annual_value_matches_30_april_sample": { + "detail": "every touched path is sampled at 30 April", + "holds": true + }, + "authored_construction_reproduces": { + "detail": "re-authoring with this engine's parameters reproduces the registry", + "holds": true + }, + "forward_delta_changes_current_law": { + "detail": "not a forward delta", + "holds": null + }, + "reversal_differs_from_current_law": { + "detail": "the reversal differs from current law in an in-force year", + "holds": true + } + }, + "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world", + "years": { + "2025": { + "in_force": false, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold": { + "baseline_world": 96.153846, + "current_law": 96.153846, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 96.153846, + "reform_world": 96.153846 + } + } + }, + "2026": { + "in_force": false, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold": { + "baseline_world": 96.153846, + "current_law": 96.153846, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 96.153846, + "reform_world": 96.153846 + } + } + }, + "2027": { + "in_force": false, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold": { + "baseline_world": 96.153846, + "current_law": 96.153846, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 96.153846, + "reform_world": 96.153846 + } + } + }, + "2028": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold": { + "baseline_world": 97.9199086029823, + "current_law": 96.153846, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 96.153846, + "reform_world": 96.153846 + } + } + }, + "2029": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold": { + "baseline_world": 99.8780897071249, + "current_law": 96.153846, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 96.153846, + "reform_world": 96.153846 + } + } + }, + "2030": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold": { + "baseline_world": 101.875685775149, + "current_law": 96.153846, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 96.153846, + "reform_world": 96.153846 + } + } + } + } + }, + "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge": { + "checks": { + "annual_value_matches_30_april_sample": { + "detail": "every touched path is sampled at 30 April", + "holds": true + }, + "authored_construction_reproduces": { + "detail": "re-authoring with this engine's parameters reproduces the registry", + "holds": true + }, + "forward_delta_changes_current_law": { + "detail": "not a forward delta", + "holds": null + }, + "reversal_differs_from_current_law": { + "detail": "the reversal differs from current law in an in-force year", + "holds": true + } + }, + "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world", + "years": { + "2025": { + "in_force": false, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount": { + "baseline_world": 2500, + "current_law": 2500, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 2500, + "reform_world": 2500 + }, + "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount": { + "baseline_world": 3500, + "current_law": 3500, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 3500, + "reform_world": 3500 + }, + "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[3].amount": { + "baseline_world": 5000, + "current_law": 5000, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 5000, + "reform_world": 5000 + }, + "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[4].amount": { + "baseline_world": 7500, + "current_law": 7500, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 7500, + "reform_world": 7500 + } + } + }, + "2026": { + "in_force": false, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount": { + "baseline_world": 2500, + "current_law": 2500, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 2500, + "reform_world": 2500 + }, + "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount": { + "baseline_world": 3500, + "current_law": 3500, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 3500, + "reform_world": 3500 + }, + "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[3].amount": { + "baseline_world": 5000, + "current_law": 5000, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 5000, + "reform_world": 5000 + }, + "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[4].amount": { + "baseline_world": 7500, + "current_law": 7500, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 7500, + "reform_world": 7500 + } + } + }, + "2027": { + "in_force": false, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount": { + "baseline_world": 2500, + "current_law": 2500, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 2500, + "reform_world": 2500 + }, + "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount": { + "baseline_world": 3500, + "current_law": 3500, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 3500, + "reform_world": 3500 + }, + "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[3].amount": { + "baseline_world": 5000, + "current_law": 5000, + 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"holds": null + }, + "reversal_differs_from_current_law": { + "detail": "the reversal differs from current law in an in-force year", + "holds": true + } + }, + "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world", + "years": { + "2025": { + "in_force": false, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional": { + "baseline_world": 0.45, + "current_law": 0.45, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.45, + "reform_world": 0.45 + }, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic": { + "baseline_world": 0.2, + "current_law": 0.2, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.2, + "reform_world": 0.2 + }, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher": { + "baseline_world": 0.4, + "current_law": 0.4, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.4, + "reform_world": 0.4 + } + } + }, + "2026": { + "in_force": false, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional": { + "baseline_world": 0.45, + "current_law": 0.45, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.45, + "reform_world": 0.45 + }, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic": { + "baseline_world": 0.2, + "current_law": 0.2, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.2, + "reform_world": 0.2 + }, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher": { + "baseline_world": 0.4, + "current_law": 0.4, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.4, + "reform_world": 0.4 + } + } + }, + "2027": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional": { + "baseline_world": 0.45, + "current_law": 0.47, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.47, + "reform_world": 0.47 + }, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic": { + "baseline_world": 0.2, + "current_law": 0.22, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.22, + "reform_world": 0.22 + }, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher": { + "baseline_world": 0.4, + "current_law": 0.42, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.42, + "reform_world": 0.42 + } + } + }, + "2028": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional": { + "baseline_world": 0.45, + "current_law": 0.47, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.47, + "reform_world": 0.47 + }, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic": { + "baseline_world": 0.2, + "current_law": 0.22, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.22, + "reform_world": 0.22 + }, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher": { + "baseline_world": 0.4, + "current_law": 0.42, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.42, + "reform_world": 0.42 + } + } + }, + "2029": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional": { + "baseline_world": 0.45, + "current_law": 0.47, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.47, + "reform_world": 0.47 + }, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic": { + "baseline_world": 0.2, + "current_law": 0.22, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.22, + "reform_world": 0.22 + }, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher": { + "baseline_world": 0.4, + "current_law": 0.42, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.42, + "reform_world": 0.42 + } + } + }, + "2030": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional": { + "baseline_world": 0.45, + "current_law": 0.47, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.47, + "reform_world": 0.47 + }, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic": { + "baseline_world": 0.2, + "current_law": 0.22, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.22, + "reform_world": 0.22 + }, + "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher": { + "baseline_world": 0.4, + "current_law": 0.42, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 0.42, + "reform_world": 0.42 + } + } + } + } + }, + "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit": { + "checks": { + "annual_value_matches_30_april_sample": { + "detail": "every touched path is sampled at 30 April", + "holds": true + }, + "authored_construction_reproduces": { + "detail": "re-authoring with this engine's parameters reproduces the registry", + "holds": true + }, + "forward_delta_changes_current_law": { + "detail": "not a forward delta", + "holds": null + }, + "reversal_differs_from_current_law": { + "detail": "the reversal differs from current law in an in-force year", + "holds": true + } + }, + "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world", + "years": { + "2025": { + "in_force": false, + "paths": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": { + "baseline_world": 2, + "current_law": 2, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 2, + "reform_world": 2 + } + } + }, + "2026": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": { + "baseline_world": 2, + "current_law": "inf", + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": "inf", + "reform_world": "inf" + } + } + }, + "2027": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": { + "baseline_world": 2, + "current_law": "inf", + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": "inf", + "reform_world": "inf" + } + } + }, + "2028": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": { + "baseline_world": 2, + "current_law": "inf", + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": "inf", + "reform_world": "inf" + } + } + }, + "2029": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": { + "baseline_world": 2, + "current_law": "inf", + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": "inf", + "reform_world": "inf" + } + } + }, + "2030": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": { + "baseline_world": 2, + "current_law": "inf", + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": "inf", + "reform_world": "inf" + } + } + } + } + }, + "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000": { + "checks": { + "annual_value_matches_30_april_sample": { + "detail": "every touched path is sampled at 30 April", + "holds": true + }, + "authored_construction_reproduces": { + "detail": "re-authoring with this engine's parameters reproduces the registry", + "holds": true + }, + "forward_delta_changes_current_law": { + "detail": "not a forward delta", + "holds": null + }, + "reversal_differs_from_current_law": { + "detail": "the reversal differs from current law in an in-force year", + "holds": true + } + }, + "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world", + "years": { + "2025": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.maximum_taxable_income": { + "baseline_world": 0, + "current_law": 35000, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 35000, + "reform_world": 35000 + }, + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income": { + "baseline_world": false, + "current_law": true, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": true, + "reform_world": true + } + } + }, + "2026": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.maximum_taxable_income": { + "baseline_world": 0, + "current_law": 35000, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 35000, + "reform_world": 35000 + }, + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income": { + "baseline_world": false, + "current_law": true, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": true, + "reform_world": true + } + } + }, + "2027": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.maximum_taxable_income": { + "baseline_world": 0, + "current_law": 35000, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 35000, + "reform_world": 35000 + }, + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income": { + "baseline_world": false, + "current_law": true, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": true, + "reform_world": true + } + } + }, + "2028": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.maximum_taxable_income": { + "baseline_world": 0, + "current_law": 35000, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 35000, + "reform_world": 35000 + }, + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income": { + "baseline_world": false, + "current_law": true, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": true, + "reform_world": true + } + } + }, + "2029": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.maximum_taxable_income": { + "baseline_world": 0, + "current_law": 35000, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 35000, + "reform_world": 35000 + }, + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income": { + "baseline_world": false, + "current_law": true, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": true, + "reform_world": true + } + } + }, + "2030": { + "in_force": true, + "paths": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.maximum_taxable_income": { + "baseline_world": 0, + "current_law": 35000, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": 35000, + "reform_world": 35000 + }, + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income": { + "baseline_world": false, + "current_law": true, + "fiscal_year_blend": false, + "preserve_calendar_dates": false, + "raw_30_april": true, + "reform_world": true + } + } + } + } + } + }, + "registry_sha256": "3da50f9af6c7986fd5fe453ae2dac34275f319d1f2ccd441e3c438f51a18656e" + }, "autumn_statement_2023": { "measures": { "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p": { diff --git a/results/uk/replays/pe6.2.6_uk2.125.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0/SUMMARY.md b/results/uk/replays/pe6.2.6_uk2.125.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0/SUMMARY.md index e57e52208..3e3b56e26 100644 --- a/results/uk/replays/pe6.2.6_uk2.125.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0/SUMMARY.md +++ b/results/uk/replays/pe6.2.6_uk2.125.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0/SUMMARY.md @@ -2,11 +2,12 @@ This namespace describes certified variant `pe6.2.6_uk2.125.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0`. PolicyEngine is policyengine-uk 2.125.1 with policyengine 6.2.6, on certified data build policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0: one survey population whose data years are 2024–2030, projected by the engine to calendar year Y. Reform dictionaries use explicit 1 January windows for annual lookups (compute_uk_event.annual_reform). Registry years outside the population's data years are reported as unsupported, not computed. A seeded registry does not establish a completed numerical replay. Available comparisons use one source head and fiscal year per row. -Numerical comparison outputs available: 0. Registry inventories available: 5. +Numerical comparison outputs available: 0. Registry inventories available: 6. | Event | Replay state | Measures | Source rows | Computed rows | Computed FYs | |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---| | autumn_budget_2024 | Registry seeded; numerical replay incomplete | 74 | 1134 | 0 | — | +| autumn_budget_2025 | Registry seeded; numerical replay incomplete | 105 | 1512 | 0 | — | | autumn_statement_2023 | Registry seeded; numerical replay incomplete | 77 | 1116 | 0 | — | | spring_budget_2023 | Registry seeded; numerical replay incomplete | 89 | 1020 | 0 | — | | spring_budget_2024 | Registry seeded; numerical replay incomplete | 49 | 816 | 0 | — | @@ -22,6 +23,10 @@ These amounts sum all source heads and costing years, including zero cells. They | autumn_budget_2024 / partial | 5 | 60 | 148.279 | 152.288 | | autumn_budget_2024 / not_expressible | 43 | 438 | 42.163 | 71.094 | | autumn_budget_2024 / out_of_household_scope | 26 | 636 | -380.606 | 477.285 | +| autumn_budget_2025 / expressible | 1 | 6 | 1.398 | 1.398 | +| autumn_budget_2025 / partial | 8 | 138 | 19.726 | 73.212 | +| autumn_budget_2025 / not_expressible | 51 | 510 | -8.198 | 82.650 | +| autumn_budget_2025 / out_of_household_scope | 45 | 858 | 7.180 | 185.626 | | autumn_statement_2023 / expressible | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | | autumn_statement_2023 / partial | 4 | 84 | -55.217 | 65.982 | | autumn_statement_2023 / not_expressible | 35 | 318 | 15.971 | 21.286 | @@ -47,6 +52,8 @@ construction_pending identifies unfinished replay constructions; model_or_data_g |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | autumn_budget_2024 / construction_pending | 14 | 114 | -2.503 | 21.454 | | autumn_budget_2024 / model_or_data_gap | 29 | 324 | 44.666 | 49.640 | +| autumn_budget_2025 / construction_pending | 36 | 366 | -18.921 | 66.119 | +| autumn_budget_2025 / model_or_data_gap | 15 | 144 | 10.723 | 16.531 | | autumn_statement_2023 / construction_pending | 24 | 204 | 8.607 | 10.499 | | autumn_statement_2023 / model_or_data_gap | 11 | 114 | 7.364 | 10.787 | | spring_budget_2023 / construction_pending | 23 | 180 | -18.605 | 22.208 | diff --git a/tests/test_obr_pmd_ingest.py b/tests/test_obr_pmd_ingest.py index eee331295..dc47de83e 100644 --- a/tests/test_obr_pmd_ingest.py +++ b/tests/test_obr_pmd_ingest.py @@ -289,7 +289,7 @@ def test_every_replay_registry_source_cell_joins_once( source_cells, claims_by_line, legacy_by_line, cell_mapping ): files = sorted((ROOT / "data/uk/events").glob("*_measures.json")) - assert len(files) == 5 + assert len(files) == 6 total = 0 frozen_aliases = 0 for path in files: @@ -320,7 +320,7 @@ def test_every_replay_registry_source_cell_joins_once( pointer["value_gbp_decimal"] ) assert len(seen) == registry["accounting"]["rows_in"] - assert total == 4584 + assert total == 6096 # 4584 in the five events, 1512 in Autumn Budget 2025 assert frozen_aliases == 132 diff --git a/tests/test_uk_event_comparison.py b/tests/test_uk_event_comparison.py index c791fb162..50ce61655 100644 --- a/tests/test_uk_event_comparison.py +++ b/tests/test_uk_event_comparison.py @@ -781,3 +781,27 @@ def test_residual_accounting_is_conserved(gap, amount): + sum(c["value_gbp"] for c in result["valued_components"]) == gap ) + + +def test_summary_covers_the_events_a_namespace_holds_or_every_registry(tmp_path): + import shutil + from pathlib import Path + + compare = comparison + events = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent / "data/uk/events" + registries = tmp_path / "data/uk/events" + registries.mkdir(parents=True) + for event in ("spring_statement_2025", "autumn_budget_2025"): + shutil.copy(events / f"{event}_measures.json", registries) + namespace = tmp_path / "results/uk/replays/ns" + namespace.mkdir(parents=True) + compare.write_summary(namespace, artifact_root=tmp_path) + summary = (namespace / "SUMMARY.md").read_text() + assert "Registry inventories available: 2." in summary + assert "autumn_budget_2025 /" in summary + (namespace / "spring_statement_2025").mkdir() + (namespace / "spring_statement_2025" / "RUN_MANIFEST.json").write_text("{}") + compare.write_summary(namespace, artifact_root=tmp_path) + summary = (namespace / "SUMMARY.md").read_text() + assert "Registry inventories available: 1." in summary + assert "autumn_budget_2025" not in summary diff --git a/tests/test_uk_event_premises.py b/tests/test_uk_event_premises.py index db2b90ba5..d14527e1a 100644 --- a/tests/test_uk_event_premises.py +++ b/tests/test_uk_event_premises.py @@ -299,8 +299,11 @@ def test_committed_premises_regenerate(engine, path, installed_engine_view): f"installed policyengine-uk {installed}; this committed file belongs " f"to {engine} (checked in its pinned environment)" ) + # A namespace's premises cover its own events (namespace_events). payload = premises.canonical_bytes( - premises.audit(list(premises.EVENTS), installed_engine_view) + premises.audit( + premises.namespace_events((ROOT / path).parent), installed_engine_view + ) ) assert payload == (ROOT / path).read_bytes() @@ -325,3 +328,28 @@ def test_installed_cgt_annual_values_against_raw_30_april(installed_engine_view) expected = old * 207 / 365 + new * 158 / 365 if installed == "2.125.1" else old assert annual == pytest.approx(expected, abs=1e-10) assert engine.reads_blend is (installed == "2.125.1") + + +@given( + held=st.sets(st.sampled_from(premises.EVENTS)), + stray=st.booleans(), + bare=st.sets(st.sampled_from(premises.EVENTS)), +) +@settings(max_examples=60, deadline=None) +def test_namespace_events_are_the_held_events_or_all( + tmp_path_factory, held, stray, bare +): + root = tmp_path_factory.mktemp("namespace") + for event in held: + (root / event).mkdir() + (root / event / "RUN_MANIFEST.json").write_text("{}") + # A directory without a manifest, or an unregistered event, holds nothing. + for event in bare - held: + (root / event).mkdir() + if stray: + (root / "not_an_event").mkdir() + (root / "not_an_event" / "RUN_MANIFEST.json").write_text("{}") + events = premises.namespace_events(root) + assert events == ( + [e for e in premises.EVENTS if e in held] or list(premises.EVENTS) + ) diff --git a/tests/test_uk_event_registry.py b/tests/test_uk_event_registry.py index 35476eec7..90b21a8b2 100644 --- a/tests/test_uk_event_registry.py +++ b/tests/test_uk_event_registry.py @@ -251,11 +251,11 @@ def test_spending_proposed_metric_is_preserved_as_exchequer_impact(): assert {r["metric"] for r in tax} == {"revenue_change"} -def test_source_events_are_not_restricted_to_the_five_pilot_events(): - rows = registry.source_rows("autumn_budget_2025") +def test_source_events_are_not_restricted_to_the_replayed_events(): + rows = registry.source_rows("autumn_statement_2022") assert rows - assert {r["fiscal_event"] for r in rows} == {"Autumn Budget 2025"} - assert "autumn_budget_2025" not in registry.EVENTS + assert {r["fiscal_event"] for r in rows} == {"Autumn Statement 2022"} + assert "autumn_statement_2022" not in registry.EVENTS def test_unknown_source_event_is_rejected_instead_of_an_empty_registry(): @@ -398,3 +398,214 @@ def resolve(path, date): 646.35 * 1.05, 2 ) assert "June2023" in m["missing_legs"][0] + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("event_slug", registry.EVENTS) +def test_every_replayed_event_agrees_with_the_inventory(event_slug): + # The inventory (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) keys measures and lines + # its own way and stores GBP millions as floats; the registry keeps exact + # Decimals. They must hold the same (title, head, FY) cells, each value + # equal to within a penny. + def cells(pairs): + out = {} + for key, value in pairs: + out.setdefault(key, []).append(value) + return {key: sorted(values) for key, values in out.items()} + + inventory = cells( + ( + (row["measure"].strip(), row["head"].strip(), fy), + Decimal(str(row["costing_gbp_m"][fy])) * 1_000_000, + ) + for line in (ROOT / "data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl").open() + for row in [json.loads(line)] + if row["event_key"] == event_slug + for fy in row["source_cells"] + ) + document = json.loads( + (ROOT / "data/uk/events" / f"{event_slug}_measures.json").read_text() + ) + registered = cells( + ( + (source["title"].strip(), source["tax_head"].strip(), source["fy"]), + Decimal(source["value_gbp_decimal"]), + ) + for measure in document["measures"] + for source in measure["source_rows"] + ) + assert inventory and set(inventory) == set(registered) + for key, values in inventory.items(): + assert len(values) == len(registered[key]) + assert all( + abs(a - b) < Decimal("0.01") for a, b in zip(values, registered[key]) + ), key + + +def ab2025_registry(): + return json.loads( + (ROOT / "data/uk/events/autumn_budget_2025_measures.json").read_text() + ) + + +def test_ab2025_uses_every_reviewed_costings_construction_from_its_first_window(): + import yaml + + by_title = {m["title"].strip(): m for m in ab2025_registry()["measures"]} + reviewed = [ + m + for m in yaml.safe_load( + (ROOT / "data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml").read_text() + )["measures"] + if m["measure_key"].startswith("autumn_budget_2025__") + ] + assert reviewed + for entry in reviewed: + measure = by_title[entry["obr_description"].strip()] + # The builder matches the PMD title itself (the costings lane keeps + # the description's padding), so its output is pinned here too. + built = registry.ab2025_construction(measure["title"]) + if not entry["pe_reform"]: + assert built is None + # A measure the costings lane left without a construction is a + # named gap here too, never an empty "expressible" construction. + assert measure["classification"] == "not_expressible" + assert measure["gap_kind"] == "construction_pending" + continue + assert built["key"] == entry["measure_key"].removeprefix("autumn_budget_2025__") + for field in ("pe_baseline_modifier", "commences_fy", "classification"): + assert built[field] == measure[field] + assert measure["pe_baseline_modifier"] == entry["pe_reform"] + first = registry.first_window_year(entry["pe_reform"]) + # Commencement is the mechanism's first year, not the first nonzero + # OBR costing year: staging treats identical worlds from it on as inert. + assert measure["commences_fy"] == f"{first}-{str(first + 1)[-2:]}" + assert measure["classification"] == ( + "partial" if entry["computability"] == "partial" else "expressible" + ) + + +def test_ab2025_named_gaps_and_the_surcharge_reversal(): + measures = ab2025_registry()["measures"] + kinds = { + "Fuel Duty": "construction_pending", + "Universal Credit": "construction_pending", + # An administrative review of past overpayments, as the builder's + # other administrative measures are classed. + "Carer’s Allowance Review": "model_or_data_gap", + } + assert len(kinds) == len(registry.AB2025_GAPS) + for prefix, (why, _, _) in registry.AB2025_GAPS.items(): + (measure,) = [m for m in measures if m["title"].startswith(prefix)] + assert measure["classification"] == "not_expressible" + assert measure["pe_gap"] == why + (kind,) = [k for start, k in kinds.items() if prefix.startswith(start)] + assert measure["gap_kind"] == kind + assert not measure.get("pe_baseline_modifier") + (surcharge,) = [ + m + for m in measures + if m["title"].startswith("High Value Council Tax Surcharge:") + ] + assert surcharge["commences_fy"] == "2028-29" + # The complete conversion of #136's year-keyed reversal: every path, and + # each path's run of years as one window at its value. + (entry,) = [ + e + for e in json.loads((ROOT / "data/uk/ab2025_measures.json").read_text())[ + "measures" + ] + if e["measure_key"] == "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge" + ] + expected = {} + for path, by_year in entry["pe_baseline_modifier"].items(): + years = sorted(int(y) for y in by_year) + (value,) = {by_year[str(y)] for y in years} + expected[path] = {f"{years[0]}-01-01.{years[-1]}-12-31": value} + assert len(expected) == 4 + assert surcharge["pe_baseline_modifier"] == expected + + +def test_ab2025_surcharge_conversion_refuses_a_run_it_cannot_window( + monkeypatch, tmp_path +): + path = "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount" + for broken in ({"2028": 0, "2030": 0}, {"2028": 0, "2029": 1}): + source = tmp_path / "ab2025_measures.json" + source.write_text( + json.dumps( + { + "measures": [ + { + "measure_key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", + "pe_baseline_modifier": {path: broken}, + } + ] + } + ) + ) + monkeypatch.setattr(registry, "AB2025_REGISTRY", source) + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="not one constant run"): + registry.ab2025_construction("High Value Council Tax Surcharge: x") + + +@given( + st.one_of( + st.floats(allow_nan=False), + st.integers(), + st.booleans(), + st.text(max_size=5), + st.none(), + ) +) +def test_json_scalar_names_infinities_and_keeps_everything_else(value): + out = registry.json_scalar(value) + json.dumps(out, allow_nan=False) + if isinstance(value, float) and value in (float("inf"), float("-inf")): + assert out == ("inf" if value > 0 else "-inf") + else: + assert out is value + + +@given( + st.dictionaries( + st.text(min_size=1, max_size=5), + st.dictionaries( + st.builds( + lambda a, b: f"{min(a, b)}-01-01.{max(a, b)}-12-31", + st.integers(2000, 2040), + st.integers(2000, 2040), + ), + st.integers(), + min_size=1, + max_size=3, + ), + min_size=1, + max_size=4, + ) +) +def test_first_window_year_is_the_earliest_window_start(spec): + first = registry.first_window_year(spec) + starts = [int(w[:4]) for windows in spec.values() for w in windows] + assert first == min(starts) and first in starts + + +def test_ab2025_measure_keys_are_the_inventorys_keys(): + # The scorecard DB ingest joins registry measures to inventory rows and + # keys published scores by them: #136's existing_registry_key where the + # inventory has one, else the inventory's own measure_key. + inventory = {} + for line in (ROOT / "data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl").open(): + row = json.loads(line) + if row["event_key"] == "autumn_budget_2025": + inventory.setdefault(row["measure"].strip(), set()).add( + row.get("existing_registry_key") or row["measure_key"] + ) + keys = registry.inventory_registry_keys("autumn_budget_2025") + measures = ab2025_registry()["measures"] + assert len(keys) == len(measures) == len(inventory) + for measure in measures: + (expected,) = inventory[measure["title"].strip()] + assert measure["measure_key"] == expected == keys[measure["title"].strip()] + for event in registry.EVENTS: + if event != "autumn_budget_2025": + assert registry.inventory_registry_keys(event) == {} diff --git a/tests/test_uk_event_version_scope.py b/tests/test_uk_event_version_scope.py index 4d33a4060..b1a8892fe 100644 --- a/tests/test_uk_event_version_scope.py +++ b/tests/test_uk_event_version_scope.py @@ -20,6 +20,7 @@ "spring_budget_2024", "spring_statement_2025", "spring_budget_2023", + "autumn_budget_2025", ) VARIANT = { "engine_version": "2.125.1", diff --git a/tests/test_uk_replay_qualify.py b/tests/test_uk_replay_qualify.py index fe16c69e9..c98d0020e 100644 --- a/tests/test_uk_replay_qualify.py +++ b/tests/test_uk_replay_qualify.py @@ -630,19 +630,40 @@ def test_corpus_passes_candidate_and_work_variants_without_resume( json.dumps({"supported_years": [2024], "unsupported_years": []}) ) calls = [] - monkeypatch.setattr( - qualify, "run", lambda command, *, cwd: calls.append((command, cwd)) - ) + corpus_file = rv.namespace_root(record, root=tmp_path) / rv.CORPUS_NAME + corpus_before_each_call = [] + + def run(command, *, cwd): + corpus_before_each_call.append(corpus_file.is_file()) + calls.append((command, cwd)) + + monkeypatch.setattr(qualify, "run", run) work_variants = tmp_path / "variants.json" assert ( qualify.run_corpus(record, work_variants, events=(event,), root=tmp_path) == [] ) + # The corpus is recorded before any event runs. + assert corpus_before_each_call and all(corpus_before_each_call) + assert json.loads(corpus_file.read_bytes()) == { + "corpus_version": qualify.CORPUS_VERSION, + "events": [event], + } compute = calls[0][0] assert "--allow-uncertified" in compute assert "--resume" not in compute staging = calls[1][0] assert staging[staging.index("--variants-file") + 1] == str(work_variants) assert all(cwd == tmp_path for _, cwd in calls) + # Premises cover the namespace's own events, and the summary comes last, + # after the diagnostics it renders, so CI regenerates the sealed bytes. + namespace = rv.namespace_root(record, root=tmp_path) + (premises,) = [c for c, _ in calls if "pipeline.audit_uk_event_premises" in c] + assert "--all" not in premises + assert premises[premises.index("--namespace") + 1] == str(namespace) + names = [" ".join(c) for c, _ in calls] + diagnose = next(i for i, c in enumerate(names) if "diagnose_uk_event_models" in c) + (summary,) = [i for i, c in enumerate(names) if "--summary" in c] + assert summary == len(calls) - 1 and summary > diagnose def local_runner(tmp_path, variant_id=CURRENT): diff --git a/tests/test_uk_replay_variants.py b/tests/test_uk_replay_variants.py index fc33824e0..bed828c21 100644 --- a/tests/test_uk_replay_variants.py +++ b/tests/test_uk_replay_variants.py @@ -1403,3 +1403,27 @@ def test_variant_preflight_hands_the_records_data_years_to_every_run(): assert pre["data_years"] == record()["data_years"] assert pre["require_dataset_years"] is True assert pre["check_import_origins"] is True + + +def test_namespace_events_follow_the_recorded_corpus_first(tmp_path): + # Review of bfd6442: a sealed namespace whose events all failed before + # writing a run manifest keeps the corpus it recorded, so its premises and + # summary do not grow when another event is registered. + from pipeline.build_uk_event_registry import EVENTS + + registered = list(EVENTS) + assert rv.namespace_events(tmp_path) == registered + (tmp_path / registered[2]).mkdir() + (tmp_path / registered[2] / "RUN_MANIFEST.json").write_text("{}") + assert rv.namespace_events(tmp_path) == [registered[2]] + corpus = [registered[3], registered[0]] + (tmp_path / rv.CORPUS_NAME).write_text( + json.dumps({"corpus_version": "x", "events": corpus}) + ) + # The recorded corpus decides, in registry order, whatever holds results. + assert rv.namespace_events(tmp_path) == [registered[0], registered[3]] + (tmp_path / rv.CORPUS_NAME).write_text( + json.dumps({"corpus_version": "x", "events": ["not_registered"]}) + ) + with pytest.raises(rv.VariantError, match="unregistered"): + rv.namespace_events(tmp_path)